A de facto partition of Gaza – where one area would be controlled by Israel and another by Hamas – is increasingly likely, multiple sources say, as efforts to advance US President Donald Trump's plan to end the war beyond a ceasefire appear to be faltering. FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks with former British diplomat Nicholas Westcott, who is a professor at the University of London's School of Oriental and African Studies.
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00:04Well, as US-led efforts to move beyond the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal falter,
00:09concerns are being raised that the concrete blocks that are being used by Israeli troops
00:13to mark the so-called yellow line could become a permanent fixture.
00:18Israel agreed to retreat to a boundary running along the north, south and east of the enclave
00:23under the first stage of the truce deal without a major push to break the current impasse.
00:28It's looking increasingly likely that the yellow line will become a de facto border, as Eliza Herbert reports.
00:38These yellow concrete blocks divide the Gaza Strip in two.
00:43One side, making up 53% of the territory, is currently under Israeli control and heavily guarded by troops.
00:51In the other 47%, nearly all of the enclave's 2 million people are crammed,
00:56living in camps and among debris.
01:00Under the next phase of the US-backed truce agreement, Israeli forces are meant to withdraw further.
01:06But many fear they are preparing to stay.
01:09No, they won't stay with us. This is rejected.
01:11The occupation staying with us is rejected.
01:14We want to live with dignity on the rubble of our lands.
01:17We want to breathe the air of our country. This is unfair.
01:19Hamas militants have re-emerged and begun asserting rule in the west, while Israel refuses to withdraw
01:27from the east until the group has disarmed, and there is a multinational security force in place.
01:33But its establishment is proving difficult.
01:36Sources have told Reuters that governments remain hesitant to commit troops, particularly
01:41if their responsibilities extend beyond peacekeeping to confronting militants.
01:46A Hamas spokesperson recently claimed the group is ready to hand over power to a Palestinian
01:52technocrat entity.
01:54And one proposal by European and Arab states, such as Jordan, is that the Palestinian Authority
02:00and its police help enforce order in Gaza.
02:03So I think it is imperative that we have a Palestinian police that is in charge of the security of the
02:10Palestinians. That needs to be supported by an international stabilisation force.
02:15We all agree on that.
02:17However, Israel opposes the idea of the Palestinian Authority being involved, and a way to fill
02:23the power vacuum remains elusive.
02:26Without a concerted push from the United States, many international diplomats have said they believe
02:31the current demarcation line could become the de facto border, possibly for years.
02:38Reconstruction efforts might then be limited to the 53 per cent Israel controls.
02:43This would also cut Palestinians off from some of Gaza's only fertile farmland, further depriving
02:51them of the chance of prosperity.
02:53To discuss, we're joined now by former diplomat, Dr. Nicholas Westcott from the University of London School of Oriental
03:01and African Studies.
03:03Thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening.
03:06So, Nicholas, what do you make of these reports that a de facto petition of Gaza is becoming increasingly
03:12likely?
03:13As we saw there in that report, it's what many Palestinians currently fear.
03:17It's becoming an increasing risk because the two things exist, the Trump peace plan, which
03:28is not yet being fully implemented, and the facts on the ground, which are increasingly
03:33being reinforced.
03:35The Trump peace plan is not a bad one.
03:37It's just very thin on detail, and particularly on process, which is what most good peace plans
03:45need.
03:45So, it sates out a lot of good intentions, including the multinational force, including
03:50a technocratic Palestinian administration.
03:53But those are not yet being put in place for good reasons, as your correspondent said.
03:59So, contributing countries are very wary of putting their troops into what could effectively
04:06become a war zone, where they have to enforce peace in relation to Hamas in particular.
04:13And secondly, the creation of a Palestinian technocratic government is not something that either
04:20Israel or Hamas particularly want.
04:24Hamas' main interest appears to be to hang on to political power in Gaza.
04:32Their interest in the welfare of the Palestinian people seems somewhat thin.
04:38Israel wants there effectively to be no change in the situation in Gaza.
04:44They are very happy with the status quo, where Hamas is effectively prevented from reorganizing
04:53itself and attacking them, and they can control 53%.
04:57So, both Hamas and Israel have an interest in just the status quo, and it will require
05:03the U.S. to get much more engaged if we're to move this and therefore ensure that the whole
05:12of Gaza comes back under a technocratic and accountable Palestinian administration.
05:19And U.S. mediators, we saw them in Israel again yesterday, not entirely sure what was
05:25discussed during those meetings.
05:27We're not really given an awful lot of detail as to the results.
05:30We've seen various U.S. teams in negotiations and some kind of talks with Benjamin Netanyahu.
05:36Where exactly do you think efforts currently are to move into the second phase of the Gaza
05:43ceasefire, and what are the main stumbling blocks?
05:46Can they be overcome, do you think?
05:47I suspect the U.S. team were discussing exactly this, the implementation of some of the broad
05:55principles in the Trump plan, and they are particularly keen to try and put in place
06:02an arrangement whereby Hamas can be disarmed.
06:07That was one of the conditions in there.
06:09And Hamas have indicated, as the report said, that they would be willing to hand over to a
06:14technocratic government.
06:15They hadn't said as explicitly that they would disarm.
06:18But if there was a means of keeping law and order in Gaza without Hamas having to do that,
06:25then they would have very little argument to say we must hang on to our guns.
06:31But at the moment, Israel are blocking the suggestion that the Palestinian Authority police
06:36should go in there to provide law and order.
06:39The multinational force doesn't yet exist, which could provide law and order, but only
06:45with the consent of the Palestinian people and the consent of Hamas.
06:49Otherwise, they're going to be fighting them.
06:51So we have a big problem as to who is going to provide basic law and order in the bits of Gaza
06:58that are controlled by Palestinians.
07:01And until that is clear, it's very hard to say, right, Israel must now hand back the remaining 53%.
07:10And as I said, Mr Netanyahu is very happy with this situation, this status quo, stalemate.
07:17And therefore, it was going to require Mr Trump himself, effectively, to get back engaged and move the parties.
07:25He sort of went out halfway through the process, claiming a deal was struck, but the deal is not complete or implemented.
07:37He seems rather distracted at the moment by sending aircraft carriers to the Caribbean,
07:41rather than actually focusing on delivering this deal.
07:43And what about efforts to achieve a two-state solution?
07:49We saw the Palestinian president in Paris here today, Emmanuel Macron, saying that he's going to help the PA draft a constitution for a future Palestinian state.
07:59Do you think that there's going to be any momentum on that, given the current situation on the ground in Gaza?
08:05I think if there is to be any prospect of a two-state solution, the Palestinians need to create an accountable government on their own side.
08:17And at the moment, there'll be no elections in either the West Bank or in Gaza or a decade or more.
08:24And there is no real sense in which either the Hamas or the Palestinian Authority can claim to be legitimately elected authorities.
08:34And until there is that accountability to the people, it's going to be very hard to set up a state that will be acceptable to the Palestinians that live in it.
08:44And again, Israel is quite happy with this not happening.
08:48They would be very worried if there was a genuinely democratic Palestinian state,
08:55because then it would be much harder for them to take more Palestinian land, both in the West Bank and in Gaza.
09:04Because it was a legitimate country.
09:06So Macron is absolutely right.
09:08There need to be steps towards a proper constitution and a democratic political system in both Gaza and the West Bank.
09:19And that is the only way that the Palestinians can strengthen themselves against the continued nibbling away at their territory by Israel.
09:27And realistically speaking, how long do you think we are from a situation where political security arrangements are actually going to be in place in Gaza
09:36and funding can be then secured for reconstruction efforts, which are likely to take years, if not decades?
09:44Yeah, the reconstruction will certainly take a lot of money and a long time.
09:52And the risk is that Israel starts developing the bits that it has control of and then says, well, we've developed this.
09:58We want to hang on to it.
10:00So creating a stable state with law and order and some administration in the bits of Gaza that Palestine does control is the top priority.
10:14And that is going to require heavy lifting by the US with support from Arab countries, European countries and others coming to say, look, if you can make these changes, then there is money willing to come in and help reconstruct.
10:30But without that heavy lifting, which requires the president himself to be involved, the status quo will remain and the Trump peace plan will fail.
10:45So it very much rests on the US to re-engage at the top level and say, OK, we need to have a police force.
10:55We need to have a proper administration.
10:57Palestinians are secure in their own area.
11:02Israel is no longer going to bomb you.
11:04And you can start reconstructing and rebuilding because it's secure internally and it's secure from Israeli attacks.
11:14We are not there yet.
11:16And only the US can do it.
11:18Dr. Nicholas Westcott from the University of London School of Oriental and African Studies.
11:22Thanks so much for being with us on the program this evening.
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