Missouri’s Offensive Strategy and Key Players Analysis

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00:00Maybe a little bit different if Pabula was the quarterback.

00:02But what are we missing for Missouri?

00:03And also, is it just, you know, business as usual for that offense

00:07where they're not really going to miss Pabula?

00:08Well, they're going to have to run the football.

00:10And again, Ahmad Hardy, that did break out against Vanderbilt.

00:15He had 97 yards on the ground.

00:17That was a better effort.

00:18He was contained in previous matchups against Alabama and Auburn

00:21to 53 and 57 yards in both of those games.

00:25He's going to have to get basically 100 yards.

00:27He's 92 and a half entering this matchup.

00:30Missouri's averaging 213 entering this game per game on the ground.

00:34They're balanced throwing for 237.

00:37Their new quarterback, Matt Zola, is 69% completion percentage,

00:41only 213 yards, two tutties, no interceptions.

00:45As long as he plays clean at home and it's a limited type of game plan,

00:49I think they could be in this number.

00:51I think they force a lower scoring game just the way A&M played Auburn

00:55and they look to steal it.

00:56I love to take a look at quarterbacks that are in that Heisman race, Joe.

00:59Marcel Reed here comes into this game.

01:01His prop for passing, 225 and a half.

01:03And if we look at his passing prop number, Joe,

01:05Marcel Reed over one and a half, minus 106.

01:07I like both.

01:08I got to tell you, I know you like Missouri.

01:09I know you like that defense.

01:11Those numbers stick out to me.

01:12Over one and a half touchdown passes, minus 106 for him to throw two.

01:15I think it makes sense.

01:15His passing yards, 225 and a half.

01:17Zollers and Reed, who are you matching up here in this spot?

01:20Well, I mean, Reed is the more consistent quarterback.

01:2261% completion percentage, over 1,900 yards, 17 touchdowns, six interceptions.

01:28He's a dual threat.

01:30He's got big playmakers on the outside like Concepcion that does it all.

01:34He's got seven receiving touchdowns on the year.

01:36They are a wide open type of attack.

01:39They're running the football for 200 yards per game,

01:41throwing in the area of about 259 entering this matchup.

01:46So, Donnie, I would go, if Marcel Reed and A&M are going to cover this game,

01:52he's got to get through his passing total today.

01:54Take a look at the rushing props, Joe.

01:56Marcel Reed, 33 and a half, listed there as a quarterback.

01:59Hardy from Missouri, 92 and a half.

02:01You know he's going to try to put in that work today.

02:03Reuben Owens, the second at 58 and a half,

02:05and then Jamal Roberts here from Missouri at 38 and a half.

02:07Rushing props, does it just go through Ahmad Hardy for you today?

02:10Yeah, it does.

02:10I mean, it's hardier bust.

02:12Again, they had a little bit more of an RPO game with Bo Perbula

02:16and that, you know, he was a better runner than Zollers.

02:20But Zollers can still move the pocket, and I think that's the biggest thing.

02:23You rely on tempo.

02:24You rely on Ahmad Hardy over Owens.

02:27Again, physicality.

02:29A&M has the better offensive line, but Missouri looks to do it with tempo,

02:34and that's the thing.

02:35You've got to sustain third downs.

02:37Missouri converting 50% of third down opportunities.

02:40As long as you win on third down, you move the sticks,

02:43you take another three or four minutes off the clock,

02:46and that can lead to an under and potentially covering the six-and-a-half,

02:49seven-point number.

02:50Receiving props, Joe, particularly on this show,

02:52we talked a lot about Casey Concepcion in the past.

02:5455-and-a-half is his receiving prop today.

02:56Mario Craver, 63-and-a-half.

02:58Those are the two top dogs here for Texas A&M for Missouri.

03:01You have Kevin Coleman, Jr., Marquise Johnson, as well as Joshua Manning,

03:05and a lot of guys that slipped down there.

03:06The passing game seems to me it favors Texas A&M today,

03:09but do you see anything on the board that really says,

03:11you know what, I've got to go with it?

03:13Well, again, Coleman is the big play for Missouri.

03:16Without North Fleet, you know, their tight end,

03:18that was utilized in big matchups.

03:20That's the cause of concern, right?

03:22When you don't have the tight end in red zone opportunities,

03:25your game plan's a little bit limited.

03:26But, again, if Missouri's going to win on third down,

03:29you still have to get the football to Coleman.

03:31Again, I like Concepcion on Texas A&M side.

03:34Like him for an anytime touchdown as well.

03:36So I go Coleman and Concepcion, top-wide receivers for both teams.

03:39You have a little pay-dirt pick, Joe.

03:41Who gets into the end zone for six today?

03:43Ahmad Hardy listed at a minus 135 price.

03:45Reuben Owens, the second here.

03:47Texas A&M, or excuse me, Texas A&M, yes.

03:48Minus 110.

03:49Then everybody else I have listed here, Joe, at plus money numbers.

03:52Marcel Reed now a plus 100.

03:54You take a look at Casey's Concepcion, plus 125.

03:56Mario Craver, plus 125.

03:58Anybody that we're looking at to score touchdowns today between Mizu and A&M.

04:02Well, I mean, Marcel Reed is the outlier.

04:04We talk about big games, quarterbacks stepping up.

04:07I obviously like Reed over Matt Zollers.

04:10But I still think potentially the way these defenses play,

04:14and you look at just like how opportunistic they've been in big matchups,

04:18maybe both defenses to score.

04:20I think that's potentially always critical in these type of games.

04:24You get a scoop and score.

04:26You get a pick six.

04:27I like both defenses to potentially hit Bay Derby.

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