00:00But now we want to switch gears and head to Damien for tonight's forecast feed.
00:07Welcome to the forecast feed. This is where we give you a behind the scenes look at our
00:12thought process that goes into our AccuWeather exclusive forecast here. And primarily what I'm
00:17going to be focusing on for today's forecast feed is going to be the risk of severe weather
00:21as we head into Sunday specifically. So you can see that we are tracking that risk of severe
00:27weather primarily across the southeast here as we head throughout Sunday afternoon and
00:32Sunday evening. This will include areas from Mobile to Pensacola, Panama City, Tallahassee,
00:37and you can see all the way up through Virginia Beach. So the southeast coastal areas will
00:42be watching out for that increased risk of severe weather as well here as we head throughout
00:46the next couple of days. So this is going to be a very similar setup to what we are tracking
00:50for today. For today, the main thing we are going to be watching out for will primarily
00:54be for a cold front driven risk of severe weather. So that's what we're mainly going
00:58to be watching out for. But overall, as you can see with this, these are going to be some
01:03of the things that we are primarily focusing on. So what you're looking at right now is this
01:06is the breakdown of the radar, kind of a five mile, 35,000 foot view of the atmosphere.
01:14So this is the jet stream. The jet stream has big implications on dictating and directing,
01:20kind of influencing the overall weather pattern that we are going to be tracking. So I want you
01:25to focus primarily on this region that we're going to be highlighting here across the southeast,
01:29which is where we're going to see that risk of severe weather. So what you're looking at right
01:33here is the dip in the jet stream. Anytime you see a big dip in the jet stream with some hot colors
01:39on the map, let's go and freeze frame it right there. Whenever you see this big dip in the jet stream
01:43like this, and then you have that coupled with some bright colors there at the bottom of that dip in
01:49the jet stream, that is whenever you start to get some very energized conditions from the atmosphere
01:54to support severe weather. Now, once again, this part of the atmosphere you're looking at is about
01:59five miles up. So we're talking about 35, 36,000 feet. So what you're looking at right now is the
02:06jet stream support of severe weather. And we're really going to see that happen here across parts
02:11of the upper levels of the atmosphere as we head into Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening. So this map right
02:17here that I'm showing you, this one is going to be a look at the moisture available in the atmosphere,
02:22because you can't really have storms unless you have some fuel for those storms to go. So right
02:26now what you're looking at is the overall trend of moisture. And one thing I do want to point out
02:31is that these types of storms that develop this time of year across this region, especially the
02:35ones that are driven primarily by cold fronts, cold fronts produce very dry air on the backside.
02:40And you can see that as this cold front sweeps through, once the front sweeps through,
02:44they're not, you're not really going to see any really chance of severe weather. And that's
02:48exactly what we're tracking as we have throughout Monday and Tuesday as cooler air starts to move
02:53in. But the one thing I want to point out about this map specifically is that there is going to
02:57be ample moisture in the atmosphere to produce severe weather. So we're going to be watching out
03:01for that very closely. So what you're looking at right now is the radar's interpretation of what
03:05we call the supercell composite. So this is the radar's interpretation of, is it likely,
03:10is the atmosphere likely to produce supercell thunderstorms? So as we head into Sunday
03:15afternoon, Sunday evening, you can see that there will be a timeline here as we end a Sunday
03:20evening across parts of the Southeast where there could be some supercell thunderstorms possible.
03:26The overall threat is going to be low, which is a good thing, but there'll still be a non-zero
03:30threat. And when you look at the overall threat for large and damaging hail, this is primarily,
03:35as you can see right here, going to be off the Southeast or the Gulf Coast there,
03:39the Florida Gulf Coast primarily is what we're going to be tracking for that, there for that
03:43threat of large hail. And then after, as you look at the overall rainfall totals, not very impressive
03:48as far as any flooding potential. So that's another good thing. But the last thing we're going to show
03:53you here is going to be the overall threat of tornadoes as we head into Sunday afternoon,
03:58Sunday evening. And the good news here, the overall threat of tornadoes isn't very high.
04:02So the overall takeaway here for this risk of severe weather we're tracking primarily on Sunday
04:06is that, yes, a lot of the ingredients will be there, but because this is one of those very strong
04:11November cold front type of setups, it's just not going to be one of the most widespread type
04:16of severe weather outbreaks you would normally associate with, let's say, Oklahoma in May.
04:20But this doesn't mean to let your guard down. So make sure you stay weather aware
04:24Sunday afternoon across the southeast.
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