The long game How Putin’s ‘chess moves’ are reshaping the global order

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00:00There was one thing that the CIA intelligence people always made clear,

00:06which is you cannot trust the Russians.

00:08Russia's continued war against Ukraine is just one of the latest big global moves from Moscow.

00:13So what do these moves mean and what could be next?

00:19The situation in Ukraine has to do with the fundamental threats to our security.

00:24That's just one of many reasons Russian President Vladimir Putin has given for

00:28invading Ukraine three years ago. It's also just one of the major global moves made by the Russians,

00:33including repeatedly violating NATO airspace, interfering in global elections and cozying up

00:39to some new allies. His main goal is to undermine the United States of America, to undermine

00:44democracies in the world. If I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours.

00:51That promise has not materialized. And while President Trump has often touted his friendliness

00:56with Putin, Putin has angered the U.S. president at times.

01:01We get a lot of thrown at us by Putin for you want to know the truth. He's very nice all the time,

01:06but it turns out to be meaningless. Everything I know about Putin, both from intelligence as well

01:13as my own experiences, is that Putin cannot be trusted. While Trump has met with both Putin

01:18and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky separately, he has attempted to get them in a room together.

01:24We need to give Putin an off ramp, some way to get out of Ukraine.

01:29I don't think he's going to get that from Donald Trump. Trump wants him to come to the table and

01:35make some sort of concessions. And of course, the big problem there is you got to have Zelensky

01:41make concessions too. Tonight, scattered over hundreds of miles across Poland, the remains of

01:47Russian drones shot down by NATO forces. Poland, along with Germany, Romania, Denmark,

01:53and other NATO countries have seen Russian drones fly into their airspace.

01:57I do not believe it's an accident whatsoever, that these are intentional incursions.

02:04Putin is going to use these different chess moves in order to test whether or not there really is

02:12a willingness on the part of NATO, on the part of the United States to stand up to him.

02:17NATO has pushed back with things like Operation Sentry to boost NATO's posture along the eastern

02:23flank and, as you saw, have shot down some Russian aircraft.

02:27The United States and NATO countries have to stand up and draw a line

02:30on Vladimir Putin. This is not a time to back off. This is not a time

02:35to pretend he's not the threat that he is.

02:38All of this has clearly gotten the attention of other NATO members in the region,

02:42like Finland, who shares an 800-mile land border with Russia.

02:45We can see from, for example, from Pokrovsk at the moment, in the East Ukraine, what is the result

02:53if the fighting starts and the war starts and there is nothing left. And that's the fate of

02:59Finland. That kind of, I mean, war starts and we are the first country on the NATO front.

03:10When it comes to election interference, Russia has targeted at least all of these countries

03:15recently, including the last three U.S. elections.

03:18Historically, Russia does interfere in the politics of its neighbors.

03:23That's become a familiar sight as well. Putin spending time with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

03:33The two attended each other's military parades, while China has given some aid to Russia in their

03:38war against Ukraine, and Russia has helped China with a potential invasion of Taiwan.

03:43This war is actually very good for China. They're making money off it.

03:48But how deep does this alliance go?

03:50They don't do alliances very well. Autocrats are autocrats. They don't like to share.

03:55They don't like to build friendships. They don't like to rely on others,

03:59except, you know, if it benefits them in some way.

04:02I don't see the Chinese wanting to get involved in any kind of a conflict,

04:06but I do see them supporting the Russians against the West because that plays into what they're trying to do.

04:13So what is Putin's goal with all this?

04:16His principal goal is to advance Russia and try to restore the old Soviet Union.

04:22I think Putin is trying to make themselves relevant again. I talked to some people in St. Petersburg,

04:29and I asked them about that, and they love the guy, of course, because he's from there.

04:35And they said, no, he's bringing Russia back into the forefront.

04:39I think it's mostly posturing to show NATO particularly, and all its friends,

04:53that it's not going to be intimidated, it's not going to back down.

04:57Every expert we spoke with highlighted America's role in pushing back against Russian aggression.

05:02But what America plans to do is not always clear.

05:05I would say in one sentence that at the moment, the perception is that the United States is unpredictable.

05:12There's that old theory that, you know, if you pretend to be crazy and people don't quite know what you're going to do,

05:20that that becomes leverage.

05:21Because you can basically use that to get people to do what you want them to do for fear that you may do something crazy.

05:32And there's something to that.

05:34I mean, I think Trump has been doing that ever since he was a developer.

05:37The experts all agreed on one thing.

05:39The U.S. needs to maintain their alliances.

05:42Every president, whether they were Republican or Democrat,

05:45pretty much had the same principles when it came to foreign policy.

05:48You know, they had different views, different approaches.

05:52But they had some fundamentals that they all abided by.

05:56And that was the importance of U.S. leadership,

05:59the importance of alliances,

06:00the importance of maintaining strong military strength,

06:03and the importance of doing what's right in the world.

06:07Maintaining the flow of arms and financial support to Ukraine

06:11is absolutely vital to the survival of Ukraine

06:14and to showing Russia that there is Western resolve and it's there for the long term.

06:21So what comes next?

06:23For the Trump administration, ending the Ukraine war is priority.

06:26But peace has been a tough sell.

06:28There was one thing that the CIA intelligence people always made clear,

06:34which is you cannot trust the Russians.

06:36I can remember, you know, the meetings at CIA where they would say,

06:41you know, you can play nice,

06:43but deep down you got to remember they're going to screw you if they get a chance.

06:48And what's the next move from the Russians?

06:50I think he has designs on the Baltics,

06:52but I think the NATO charter is going to prevent him from doing that.

06:57If he had this much trouble with Ukraine,

06:59there's no way he wants to take on NATO.

07:01I strongly doubt that Russia is going to attack to Poland or to Finland

07:06or to even not to any Baltic states.

07:11Not now and not next year.

07:14Whatever comes next, Panetta said,

07:16continued cooperation and dialogue will remain important.

07:19If you're willing to work with people,

07:21if you're willing to be involved,

07:23you can make good things happen.

07:25And, you know, otherwise you're basically rolling dice.

07:33And rolling dice in foreign affairs is not a smart thing to do.

07:37For Straight Arrow News, I'm Lauren Keenan.

07:39If you want more on this story,

07:40download the Straight Arrow News app or visit san.com.

07:43For Straight Arrow News, visit san.com.

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