00:00There was one thing that the CIA intelligence people always made clear,
00:05which is you cannot trust the Russians.
00:08Russia's continued war against Ukraine is just one of the latest big global moves from Moscow.
00:13So what do these moves mean and what could be next?
00:19The situation in Ukraine has to do with fundamental threats to our security.
00:24That's just one of many reasons Russian President Vladimir Putin has given for
00:28invading Ukraine three years ago. It's also just one of the major global moves made by the Russians,
00:33including repeatedly violating NATO airspace, interfering in global elections and cozying up
00:39to some new allies. His main goal is to undermine the United States of America,
00:44to undermine democracies in the world. If I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day,
00:4924 hours. That promise has not materialized. And while President Trump has often touted his
00:56friendliness with Putin, Putin has angered the U.S. president at times.
01:00We get a lot of thrown at us by Putin for you want to know the truth. He's very nice all the time,
01:06but it turns out to be meaningless. Everything I know about Putin, both from intelligence as well
01:13as my own experiences, is that Putin cannot be trusted. While Trump has met with both Putin
01:18and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky separately, he has attempted to get them in a room together.
01:24We need to give Putin an off ramp, some way to get out of Ukraine.
01:29I don't think he's going to get that from Donald Trump. Trump wants him to come to the table and
01:35make some sort of concessions. And of course, the big problem there is you got to have Zelensky
01:41make concessions too. Tonight, scattered over hundreds of miles across Poland, the remains of
01:47Russian drones shot down by NATO forces. Poland, along with Germany, Romania, Denmark,
01:53and other NATO countries have seen Russian drones fly into their airspace.
01:57I do not believe it's an accident whatsoever, that these are intentional incursions.
02:04Putin is going to use these different chess moves in order to test whether or not there really is
02:12a willingness on the part of NATO, on the part of the United States to stand up to him.
02:17NATO has pushed back with things like Operation Sentry to boost NATO's posture along the eastern
02:23flank and, as you saw, have shot down some Russian aircraft.
02:27The United States and NATO countries have to stand up and draw a line
02:30on Vladimir Putin. This is not a time to back off. This is not a time
02:35to pretend he's not the threat that he is.
02:38All of this has clearly gotten the attention of other NATO members in the region,
02:42like Finland, who shares an 800-mile land border with Russia.
02:45We can see from, for example, from Pokrovsk at the moment, in the East Ukraine, what is the result
02:53if the fighting starts and the war starts and there is nothing left. And that's the fate of
02:59Finland. That kind of, I mean, war starts and we are the first country on the NATO front.
03:10When it comes to election interference, Russia has targeted at least all of these countries
03:15recently, including the last three U.S. elections.
03:18Historically, Russia does interfere in the politics of its neighbors.
03:27That's become a familiar sight as well. Putin spending time with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
03:33The two attended each other's military parades, while China has given some aid to Russia in their
03:38war against Ukraine. And Russia has helped China with a potential invasion of Taiwan.
03:43This war is actually very good for China. They're making money off it.
03:48But how deep does this alliance go?
03:50They don't do alliances very well. Autocrats are autocrats. They don't like to share.
03:55They don't like to build friendships. They don't like to rely on others.
03:58Except, you know, if it benefits them in some way.
04:02I don't see the Chinese wanting to get involved in any kind of a conflict. But I do see them
04:07supporting the Russians against the West, because that plays into what they're trying to do.
04:13So what is Putin's goal with all this?
04:16His principal goal is to advance Russia and try to restore the old Soviet Union.
04:22I think Putin is trying to make themselves relevant again. I talked to some people in St. Petersburg and I asked them about that.
04:32And they love the guy, of course, because he's from there. And they said, no, he's bringing Russia back into the forefront.
04:39I think it's mostly posturing to show NATO particularly and all its friends that it's not going to be intimidated. It's not going to back down.
04:57Every expert we spoke with highlighted America's role in pushing back against Russian aggression.
05:02But what America plans to do is not always clear.
05:05I would say in one sentence that at the moment the perception is that the United States is unpredictable.
05:12There's that old theory that, you know, if you pretend to be crazy and people don't quite know what you're going to do, that that becomes leverage.
05:23Because you can basically use that to get people to do what you want them to do for fear that you may do something crazy.
05:31And there's something to that. I mean, I think Trump has been doing that ever since he was a developer.
05:37The experts all agreed on one thing. The U.S. needs to maintain their alliances.
05:42Every president, whether they were Republican or Democrat, pretty much had the same principles when it came to foreign policy.
05:49You know, they had different views, different approaches.
05:51But they had some fundamentals that they all abided by.
05:56And that was the importance of U.S. leadership, the importance of alliances, the importance of maintaining strong military strength and the importance of doing what's right in the world.
06:07Maintaining the flow of arms and financial support to Ukraine is absolutely vital to the survival of Ukraine and to showing Russia that there is Western resolve and it's there for the long term.
06:21So what comes next? For the Trump administration, ending the Ukraine war is priority. But peace has been a tough sell.
06:28There was one thing that the CIA intelligence people always made clear, which is you cannot trust the Russians.
06:36I can remember, you know, the meetings at CIA where they would say, you know, you can play nice, but deep down you got to remember they're going to screw you if they get a chance.
06:48And what's the next move from the Russians?
06:50I think he has designs on the Baltics, but I think the NATO charter is going to prevent him from doing that.
06:57If he had this much trouble with Ukraine, there's no way he wants to take on NATO.
07:02I strongly doubt that Russia is going to attack to Poland or to Finland or to even not to any Baltic states.
07:11Not now and not next year.
07:14Whatever comes next, Panetta said continued cooperation and dialogue will remain important.
07:19If you're willing to work with people, if you're willing to be involved, you can make good things happen.
07:26And, you know, otherwise you're basically rolling dice.
07:33And rolling dice in foreign affairs is not a smart thing to do.
07:36For Straight Arrow News, I'm Lauren Keenan.
07:39If you want more on this story, download the Straight Arrow News app or visit san.com.
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