00:00Jane Foley of Rambo Bank writing, we have not been forecasting a continued slide in the dollar's value next year.
00:05Jane joins us now for more. Jane, welcome back. Only six months ago, we were talking about sell America.
00:10The dollar trade is over. A dollar bear market is upon us.
00:13And you and I talked about this. So much of that was the first half, the first quarter of 25.
00:17What do you expect 26 will bring?
00:21Well, you know, that's a really good question because I think many people are still surprised that if you look at the second half of the year today,
00:28well, the dollar is the best performing G10 currency.
00:31So not only has it done well, you know, in October where it was the best performer, it's actually a lot longer than that.
00:38And that sort of goes against a lot of people's instincts.
00:41I still have people talking to me about, you know, dollar weakness.
00:43And yes, those drops in the first five months really of this year were so extreme.
00:48But actually, the dollar has done a fairly good job of recovering its ground.
00:53And I think that really does question this consensus trade about, you know, we're heading to 120 and beyond.
00:59I mean, the consensus is still of that view.
01:02And I think right now we need to stop and rethink.
01:04Now, it is difficult to rethink because obviously we don't have the U.S. data.
01:08But I think that most of the weakness that we had in the first, say, five months of this year was really position adjustment.
01:15You know, since the global financial crisis, we've had this big increase in investment from non-dollar-based investors, a lot of it going into the S&P, into U.S. assets.
01:25And at the start of the year, people were sort of questioning that.
01:28And I think they still are, to be fair, the diversification trade.
01:31But, you know, does that mean that the dollar can carry on plummeting?
01:34Well, I don't think it does.
01:36And I think the dollar, you know, will be a lot more stable.
01:39And I'm really beginning to question whether or not we're going to see, you know, any significant dollar losses from this juncture in.
Be the first to comment