00:00Does your FX view really feed into bigger, broader narratives in your portfolio?
00:05I think it's less about the micro and more about the macro.
00:08So one of the interesting things to think about when we think about dollar cycles is they are really long.
00:14They're much, much longer than economic cycles, commodity cycles, equity, bond markets.
00:21In fact, the average dollar cycle is about 18 years.
00:24So the last time we had a dollar bear market was 2002.
00:28So I'm old enough to have been around in 2002.
00:31So you're calling this the beginning of the next dollar bear market?
00:33Well, we certainly have seen some signs in that direction.
00:36I'm certainly not arguing that it's going to continue at the pace that we've seen the beginning of this year.
00:41But it is worth large asset allocators keeping that in mind.
00:47So if you look at twin deficits in the U.S., if you look at perhaps recoveries in China, in Europe, in other parts of the world,
00:55there are many signs lined up for the beginning of a dollar bear market.
01:00We're starting to see some of those really large asset owners, institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds starting to think about looking at other parts of the world.
01:11I don't think they're allocating, but they're certainly considering whether they want to have some non-dollar exposure.
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