00:00Jane, does this mean that there is a revival of U.S. exceptionalism, that the dollar is back in vogue and the weakening trend is broken?
00:08Well, you know, it's really quite interesting because if we look at U.S. equity markets since June, then we could be talking about that then.
00:15So, for instance, in the equity markets, you could say, well, this rotation trade away from U.S. assets, which really characterized trading in the first five months of the year, was over.
00:25And yet the dollar in June and then actually beginning of July mostly was on the back foot.
00:31There was an attempt at a dollar revival at the beginning of July when that payrolls data came in firmer.
00:37But the dollar, I think, has been lagging this end of rotation trade.
00:41Stock markets really picked up a bid. The dollar didn't, perhaps because the market was anticipating a more dovish fare.
00:48But I think we needed this washout in positioning.
00:51I think the market had become too long dollar at the start of the year.
00:55This rotation trade certainly caught up and characterized all U.S. assets.
00:59But whereas the stock market began to recover, you know, a month ago, more than a month ago, the dollar did not.
01:05And so I think this is what we've just seen this week is this washout of positioning and this recognition that this economy hasn't been as hard hit as we all thought it could be back in April.
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