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00:00One of the most watched elections in the country is just four days away,
00:04and it's a dead heat. In the New Jersey governor's race, Democratic Congresswoman
00:07Mikey Sherrill, who led by a whopping 20 points this summer, is now ahead by just a single
00:12percentage point against a Republican rival, Jack Cittarelli, 49 to 48 percent, according to the
00:18latest Emerson poll. Now, if passed his prelude, Cittarelli could be in even better shape. Here's
00:24why. In 2021, a widely viewed polling average undercounted his performance against now term
00:29limited Governor Phil Murphy by five points. In 2024, President Trump lost the state to Kamala
00:35Harris, but performed better than anyone would have expected, losing by less than six points.
00:39But before the Cittarelli campaign starts blowing up their red, white, and blue balloons,
00:43it bears mentioning that early voting data is looking pretty, pretty good for Mikey Sherrill.
00:48Fifty-four percent of votes cast early have been registered Democrats, and just 28 percent are
00:53registered Republicans. As I've talked about on the pod a few times now, New Jersey as well as
00:58Virginia, that governor's race there, and the New York City's mayoral race, they're all being closely
01:03watched for any signs that could help handicap next year's midterms for either party nationally.
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