- 3 months ago
In an exclusive interview with India Today, IIT Kanpur Director Manindra Agarwal explained the entire cloud seeding experiment and said it is not a solution to the problem of pollution, it's an SOS measure.
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00:00Hi there, I'm Sorul Merotra Kapoor and welcome to Five Live. For the past 24 hours at least,
00:12people in the natural capital have been playing out scenes from the movie Lagaan. Have you seen
00:18it? Everybody waiting for that cloud to burst for rain to happen. Nothing really happened.
00:24Now, what exactly is cloud seeding? We told you all about that yesterday.
00:28But today, what is the news? The news is the cloud seeding experiment has been put on hold
00:33for now. IT Kanpur has cited that there is not enough moisture in the air for cloud seeding
00:40to be successful. As smog thickens, pollution climbs, the question now is, can science really
00:45save Delhi from its choking skies? Earlier today, I spoke with IT Kanpur Director Manendra Agarwal
00:52to lead, sort of, and make us understand the entire cloud seeding experiment. He also spoke
01:00in detail very candidly about whether or not this experiment really is pollution car solution.
01:07He also revealed the cost. He talks about a sum of 25 crore rupees that will be spent out
01:14of your and my taxes that go into Delhi government for this experiment, which he himself says might
01:20not be the solution that we are looking for. So what exactly is this? When the forecast remains
01:27shaky, clouds are missing. Can cloud seeding really bring the much needed respite in Delhi
01:34citizens? Take a look.
01:35All right, Delhi for the past 24 hours has had a bit of a lagoon moment. We're all looking into the sky
01:50and wondering if it's going to rain. All of this is thanks to a great scientific experiment called
01:56cloud seeding. We've been reporting about it continuously for the past 24 hours, but now I have
02:01with me the man of the hour. Please join me in welcoming Manendra Agarwal, the Director of Indian
02:08Institute of Technology, IT Kanpur, with us here on the broadcast. Thank you so much for joining us
02:13here on India today, sir.
02:15It's a pleasure.
02:16Have you seen the movie Lagaan, sir? Are you also feeling like it? We're all waiting for that
02:21moment. Yesterday was a bit surreal. Yeah, so many people had so much expectation. All the media was
02:29looking, you know, following it up so closely. So it is a little bit of a, I'm sure it's a bit of a let
02:35down that we could not get it rain yesterday. Unfortunately, the cloud, that clouds we had, had a very low
02:44moisture content, only about 15%. So we knew that we won't be able to cause it to rain. But we went ahead
02:53because we wanted to collect data, the correlation data, that how much moisture content is there, how
03:04much seeding we do, and what impact does it have on the ground. So that we got very good data from
03:10yesterday's sorties. I'll get to the data in just a bit, sir. But first, if you could address the
03:16latest issue. Just yesterday, you said that you will be making more attempts today. But now you have
03:23paused the cloud seeding experiment in Delhi. Why is that? Because today, the prediction for today was
03:34that there will be clouds with the higher moisture content. But today morning, that was revised,
03:42that the moisture content is going to be even lower than yesterday. And the height of the clouds will
03:48also be pretty high, that no more than 12, 13,000 feet. So that with that kind of clouds, it's
03:59an event, very little we can do about. So we therefore have decided not to go ahead today. Instead, we'll wait
04:08for an opportune moment, which hopefully we'll get in the next few days. And then we'll try again.
04:16Do you have a timeline, sir? A window in mind?
04:20So, again, these things are very unpredictable. So the data which we have today shows that in next
04:29four or five days, we will get some reasonable clouds. So we'll wait for it and hope that that prediction
04:39becomes a reality.
04:40Okay. So, sir, yesterday, when you did do two rounds of cloud seeding, I'm just repeating what
04:46your team has been sharing with me so far. And correct me if I'm wrong. Two rounds of cloud
04:51seeding happened yesterday, six shots in the first flight, eight shots in the second flight after that.
04:57Did you not anticipate the movement, the weather patterns by then? Or in your anticipation,
05:05did things change last minute, mid-air or perhaps even after seeding?
05:10No, no. We knew at the time of flying already because that this information we get from the
05:17IMD and other sources that what is the moisture content in the clouds. So we knew that the moisture
05:24content is not high. We went ahead with it because, like I mentioned earlier, we wanted to collect
05:32the data. We had measurement set up at multiple locations in Delhi. And so we could collect good
05:40data from there.
05:42I see, sir. So you went into the first experiment, the two rounds, knowing fully well that it just
05:50might not be successful. Am I to understand that correctly?
05:54It's successful in terms of making it rain, yes. But then if one measures success by seeing if, has
06:04the PM 2.5 and PM 10 level come down? It didn't come down by much, but it did come down by about,
06:14depending on which location we measure, between 10 to 20 percent.
06:19Can you convert that in terms of points for us? We understand AQI and PM 2.5 in numeric value.
06:29AQI, I think we, our guys haven't done the calculation. We were just measuring 2.5 and 10 content because
06:38that's kind of easier to measure. So AQI terms, I won't say it would have met very big difference.
06:47Maybe a 10 percent reduction, perhaps.
06:51Okay. So, sir, how was this timing then decided? I'm just trying to understand that historically,
07:00when we've seen cloud seeding being done in countries across the globe, they either happen before an event
07:08or around a time when there is an urgent need. What was the thinking then to do it in this window of October 28th to 30th,
07:18where you are only saying knowing fully well it would not result in rain?
07:23No, we, our window is not just this. Our window is from now onwards for the entire winter period.
07:33Because that is the time when there is a high level of pollution in NCR region.
07:39So, in this winter season, whenever we find that there are reasonable clouds, we will make an attempt.
07:48You will make an attempt. All right. So, I just want to get down to the question of understanding what cloud seeding really does.
07:56You are the scientist. You know the tech and the science behind it. All of us are just, like I said,
08:01having a Lagan moment waiting for the weather gods to actually turn in our favour.
08:06But from what I understand and what my research tells me, cloud seeding is at most a bit of a nudge to make it rain.
08:15Cloud seeding doesn't really cause rain. A lot of other weather patterns have to be favourable.
08:22Is that a correct understanding? That's absolutely correct understanding.
08:27For cloud seeding, clouds have to be there. There has to be a reasonable amount of moisture in the clouds.
08:36And you very rightly put it as a nudge. If there is very high moisture contained in the cloud, then it is going to rain anyway.
08:44If there is very little moisture contained in the cloud, which was, for example, yesterday, then it isn't going to rain, no matter what we try.
08:52In between, the seeding helps providing that nudge. When there is a decent moisture content, but not enough for it to rain naturally, or to rain very little naturally, the cloud seeding can help increase the amount of rain.
09:11Okay. Okay, sir. But what exactly do you think or how much do you think cloud seeding in its best case scenario of rain will impact air pollution in Delhi?
09:27I just want to, for a perspective of our viewers who are perhaps not as in sync with this news, let's just give some examples.
09:34For example, in China, when they tried cloud seeding, they did it just before the games or after, before an event when they needed air cleared out for a matter of three to four days.
09:46In UAE, when they did it, they did it to try and fight out drought. In US, when they tried it, they wanted snow. For pollution per se, a long term pollution problem like Delhi and India, how much of a success do you think cloud seeding can bring?
10:07So, I should make it very clear. Cloud seeding is not a solution to the problem of pollution. It's an SOS measure. When you have high levels of pollution, people are suffering, then it is a tool which is available, which can help reduce the level of pollution,
10:36for a certain period of pollution for a certain period of pollution. If the sources of pollution are not addressed, then this pollution will come back.
10:43So, cloud seeding, therefore, will, the best case scenario for cloud seeding would be to bring down the pollution, let's say, bring AQI below 100 for three, four days.
10:59That's the best case scenario. Then it will go up if the sources of pollution remain there because they will keep on pumping more and more polluting particles.
11:10So, the long term or permanent solution to the problem of pollution is to curb these sources.
11:18Right.
11:19And then cloud seeding will not be needed at all.
11:25Right, sir. Right. That's interesting. You actually say it very, very clearly because that was my understanding as well, that cloud seeding at max can bring down the AQI levels to a few hundred points for a few hours to a few days.
11:43Yes.
11:44It is but a band-aid or perhaps a temporary respite from pollution, not a solution to pollution.
11:52Correct.
11:53Right, sir.
11:54Correct.
11:55Which then brings me to how do we even understand if this is what is really required.
12:03There are questions being raised on the cost. We've been gathering from sources that the deal that you have with the Delhi government is for about 3.5 crore for 10 seeding attempts.
12:15And is that correct, sir? And do you think what we're trying to achieve then matches with the cost involved?
12:22Yeah, but this is the cost which is a little on the, not little, more than a little high. And the reason is that there is a lot of fixed cost here.
12:35The aircraft, maintenance, pilots. Then if you are flying from Kanpur to Delhi, there is higher fuel cost as well.
12:44But once things get streamlined, one expects that we will be flying from somewhere near Delhi. All the fixed costs will get amortized. Then the seeding cost then will be substantially less than what these numbers indicate.
13:05My back-of-the-envelope calculation is that for a seeding, continuous seeding for an entire winter season, the cost will be 25 crores or thereabouts.
13:20Hmm. 25 CR, you're saying?
13:23Yeah.
13:24Okay.
13:25And this for the entire four months of winter season, whenever there are clouds, we go ahead and do the seeding.
13:30Hmm.
13:31That is not, I would say, very substantial in terms of the overall budget to address the pollution problem in Delhi.
13:44Hmm.
13:45So, I would not worry that much about the cost part of it, but the fact that it is a measure which is, when there is an SOS situation,
14:00then you have to, this is the solution that is available.
14:05So, you do it, you spend some money, but ideally, one should not be spending this money.
14:12Ideally, one should not be requiring cloud seeding, because one could address the sources of pollution.
14:20At the same time, one has to be practical, that we cannot overnight tackle the sources of pollution.
14:26Hmm.
14:27There is going to be a time period, and in that time period, this is a solution that is available.
14:35Got it.
14:36Got it.
14:37That's nicely put, sir.
14:38I think a very balanced answer over there.
14:40I want to then understand from you, if you're saying this will be consistently done over four
14:45to five months of the winter period lasting in Delhi NCR.
14:50There are scientific evidence that too much of cloud seeding can also be detrimental.
14:55Now, thanks to social media, we have everybody talking about sodium iodine and salts, et cetera, that are used.
15:02Can you, yes, can you then clarify once and for all for our Indian audiences, especially in Delhi, that if they receive rain because of cloud seeding, does it or does it not have a health impact?
15:19It has no health impact.
15:24And the confidence in my statement stems from the very simple mathematical calculation.
15:32In our seeding mixture, there are three types of ingredients.
15:38One is silver iodide, second is rock salt, and third is common salt.
15:47Now, rock salt and common salt, of course, don't cause any harm.
15:52It's a silver iodide that can be harmful if it is present in large quantities.
15:59Now, our seeding mixture and the amount of seeding that we do will basically spread less than one kilogram of silver iodide over an area of 100 square kilometers.
16:12You do the calculation, over something as large as one square kilometer, the amount of silver iodide will be less than 10 grams.
16:24And so, this is such a negligible amount of silver iodide that it makes no difference at all in terms of any health hazard or such things.
16:38So, no health hazard?
16:40All at the same time, we are just to reconfirm it, we have set up the instrumentations and we are taking soil samples as well to see what if any changes are occurring when we do seeding.
16:59I see, soil samples and otherwise to sort of monitor results later on.
17:05So, can I then ask you the relationship every time there is an experiment, scientific experiment, done like this which impacts so many people, we get very excited and perhaps look at institutions like yours with a lot of respect as well.
17:20That India is capable of doing something like that.
17:23So, kudos to you and your team.
17:25I want to go back to understanding how did this association even start?
17:30When was the first time you thought about cloud seeding?
17:33Did the Delhi government come to you with that idea?
17:36Were you already sitting on it?
17:37You took it to them.
17:38How did this marriage start?
17:40Well, it started, the whole cloud seeding idea in IIT Kanpur started many years ago when there was a partnership with the government of UP with the aim of developing this technology.
17:55We have been importing this technology from outside and the idea was to in-house development of this.
18:07And over a period of time we developed, because we had our own aircraft, we were importing these flares but over a period of time we developed our own flares.
18:18They are now being made in Shivakashi.
18:21And the salt mixture also which was purely silver iodide that is prescribed everywhere, everybody uses that.
18:28But we developed our own mixture of salts.
18:33And so pretty much everything is in-house developed.
18:38Then we, because Delhi suffers from pollution every year and we did reach out to the government of Delhi a few years ago with this idea or proposal.
18:50But Delhi also has the problem of permissions.
18:54There is a very difficult to get permissions from DGCA and many other agencies to actually fly an aircraft and do the seeding.
19:03So that's where things got started and didn't move forward until earlier this year when Minister Sirsa, who really took the leadership in this and all credit to him, he personally ensured that all permissions are available to us so that we can do the seeding.
19:26Got it.
19:27Sir, you've answered all my questions very, very, you know, in the best way, in a very nuanced way.
19:33I have to ask you the last one that I'm getting as a pop up on my screen right now.
19:38People watching this interview are then perhaps from the opposition also saying that for a project that costs 25 crore for just four months does not lead to bringing down pollution.
19:52Is it really worth it and why did you do it now?
19:55Was it political pressure?
19:56Do you want to take that on?
19:59Look, the cost benefit analysis of this, one would be able to do more clearly once let's say the entire season goes away, goes past, because one also has to take in that suppose there is a rain.
20:18Suppose the AQI does come down for two days, by how much the negative health impact has reduced and what is its cost.
20:32So once one does that, then one can do a comparison whether this spending 25 crore was worthwhile or not.
20:41I can't answer that right now.
20:43Maybe it turns out that it was not desirable and then it can be discontinued.
20:48But this is a scientific experiment.
20:51This is an attempt to try things, new things out and the jury is out.
20:56We'll see at the end of the day where we stand.
20:59All right.
21:00Thank you so much for taking all those questions, sir.
21:03Better luck next time and we'll keep in touch to see how this goes.
21:06Thank you so much.
21:08All right.
21:10So that was round one of cloud seeding didn't really lead to anything, but we'll see how that story really pans out.
21:20But again and again, all experts you speak with are telling you the same thing.
21:24This is not the pollution solution that we really want.
21:28We want a systemic change and we want something that will not be a bandaid, but will bring down the overall pollution levels in the city.
21:37Well, that is the story.
21:39But talking about things that impact the city, let's talk about things that impact our health.
21:44This is health o'clock after all.
21:46And today's story has got everybody thinking yet again about the state of our bodies and our minds as well.
21:53Now, six pack abs, early workouts, green smoothies.
21:57You might think that's the definition of health.
22:00But here's an uncomfortable truth.
22:03You can be fit on the outside, but still be at risk on the inside.
22:09That's exactly what happened to Zero Das Nitin Kamath, a man who exercised regularly, ate right, hardly ever partied and still suffered a stroke.
22:18He wrote that it came out of the blue just weeks after he lost his father.
22:24He points out that there was poor sleep, exhaustion, dehydration, overworking and overtraining as well.
22:31And like nobody can really say what exactly led to the stroke, all of these could have been the trigger.
22:38Like many of us, he brushed it off at first, thinking rest would fix it.
22:44He even admitted that I made the mistake of thinking I could sleep it off.
22:47But strokes don't wait.
22:49As he now reminds others in that post that he's given out, there's a golden window of 4.5 hours to actually help.
22:57After that, every minute counts because time is brain.
23:01Across India, there are more and more stories like that of Nitin Kamath.
23:06More and more people in their 30s and 40s, people who look perfectly healthy, landing in ICUs with heart attacks and strokes.
23:15The so-called fit generation is running on empty sleep, high stress, relentless hustle, while their bodies quietly revolt.
23:26Because fit and healthy aren't the same thing.
23:29Fitness is about not just how you look, health is about how your body functions.
23:34You can clock 10k steps, but if your mind never stops racing, your body is paying the price.
23:41Think of your body like a car.
23:44You can polish the exterior, get new tires even, even top up the fuel.
23:49But if you never check the engine oil, one day it will cease without warning.
23:56So how do you check? How do you keep a check on that engine?
24:00If you are one of those who cares about health, but doesn't know where to start, here's a checklist for you.
24:06Quickly take out pen and paper and note it down.
24:08Some of the numbers that you should be tracking on a regular basis, like your blood pressure should be below 120 by 80.
24:15Resting heart rate should be 60 to 80 BMP is okay, but below 60 is also okay only if you are an athletic person.
24:24Your fasting sugar, HPA1C, to catch the insulin resistance, get those numbers in.
24:31Also get a check on your cholesterol profile.
24:34High LDL or triglycerides can block arteries even in the so-called slim and fit people.
24:41Vitamin D, extremely crucial.
24:43B12, extremely crucial as well.
24:46Homostein, imbalances can strain your heart and nerves.
24:50And then there is the all important sleep quality.
24:53Seven to eight hours of deep, uninterrupted rest.
24:59Not just waking up 10 times in the night or, you know, getting, tossing and turning in bed, but you were still on the bed for about 10 hours.
25:06Stress levels.
25:08Chronic stress keeps your cortisol high, thickens blood, raises the pressure and makes recovery harder.
25:14So, if you are over 30, get your routine, ECG or cardiac screening done.
25:21Especially if you work long hours, train hard or rarely slow down.
25:25As Kamath put it, even the body needs to know when to shift gears down.
25:31That's not a weakness, that's actually wisdom.
25:34Because our body doesn't care how you look in photos, it cares how well you rest, how much you breathe and how kind you are to it
25:43when no one's watching.
25:45True health isn't just built in the gym.
25:47It's built in your choices, in the way you eat, in the way you sleep, in the way you pause and also in the way you recover.
25:54Being fit may impress others, but being healthy, that's what will save your life.
26:00Well, that's a bit of a, you know, reminder to all of you over there on how to take care of your health.
26:07That's it from all of us on 5 Live.
26:09Thank you so much for watching.
26:10We'll see you again tomorrow.
26:11Bye bye for now.
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