- 2 months ago
This special report focuses on Delhi's ambitious cloud seeding experiment, a government initiative with IIT Kanpur to induce artificial rain and combat the city's toxic air pollution. The program, anchored by Sonal Mehrotra Kapoor, explores the science behind using silver iodide flares and the high-stakes gamble of its success, featuring analysis from weather expert Mahesh Palawat and environmentalist Vimlindu Jha. Environmentalist Vimlindu Jha offered a sharp critique of the project, stating, 'I think it's voodoo science when it comes to air seeding, because right now what you look at what's been happening, like it's a spectacle.' The report examines whether this technological intervention can provide even temporary relief from hazardous PM2.5 and PM10 pollutants or if it is merely a distraction from implementing long-term, source-based pollution control measures. It also draws comparisons with weather modification programs in China, the UAE, and the USA, questioning the efficacy and potential consequences of such large-scale experiments.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome. I'm Sonal Mehrotra Kapoor. This is Five Live.
00:15The countdown for artificial rains in Delhi has begun.
00:20In a bold attempt to clear the capital's choking skies,
00:23an aircraft from IIT Kanpur took off today, releasing special salt-based and silver iodine flares into clouds above Delhi.
00:34What is all that? I'll tell you that in just a moment.
00:36But what's the latest?
00:37Now, the Delhi Environment Minister, Majinder Sirsa, has confirmed that two rounds of what is called cloud seeding
00:44has already been completed, with a third expected any time now.
00:49So, we are waiting to see if Delhi will witness its first ever artificial rainfall
00:56and perhaps will bring with it a temporary respite, if at all, from its toxic air.
01:04What are the chances? Well, right off the bat, I can tell you it's a little 50-50 over there.
01:09But first, let's deep dive into what exactly is cloud seeding.
01:16First up, listen in from the Chief Minister.
01:46We are living in cloud seeding, cloud seeding, you know, the water, the water, the water, the water, the water, the water, the water, the water, the water, the water.
01:51This is all that kind of conditions we can create, how many of us can create, how many of us can create.
01:56This is very difficult for us.
01:57This is our own, because we are in Delhi, in Delhi, the first time we have been in Delhi.
02:01But I want to ask, I encourage you to be careful, that this trial is difficult for us, and that Delhi will get us in Delhi.
02:36which will have to be very big, because the humidity is less than 15 to 15 percent.
02:45This is now going to test how much visibility, how much moisture will happen.
02:52I hope that IIT Kanpur will remain good.
02:59So you heard from the politicians there, but what exactly is cloud seeding?
03:04And can it really fix Delhi's dirty air?
03:07Let's start with this explainer and start by telling you how it actually works.
03:12Now think of cloud seeding as giving reluctant clouds a bit of a push.
03:16Scientists use aircraft or even rockets sometimes to spray tiny particles,
03:21usually from silver, iodide, salt or even dry ice into clouds that already contain moisture.
03:28These particles act as seeds, helping water droplets form
03:33and eventually fall as rain or sometimes as snow.
03:38Important to understand that cloud seeding can't really create rain from clear skies.
03:44It only enhances the precipitation when the right type of cloud is already present.
03:51So what is this Delhi experiment all about?
03:53Now Delhi is now preparing for its first large-scale artificial rain operation led by researchers from IIT Kanpur.
04:01Now apparently a successful test run was already conducted earlier in Burari
04:06and the main operation is planned between today and the 30th of October, 28th to 30th of October,
04:12depending all, not just on the science, but on weather and flight visibility.
04:18The idea is simple. Trigger light rainfall to help wash off the fine particulate matter PM 2.5 PM 10,
04:27then blanket the city, you know, this entire PM 2.5 PM 10 that blankets the city every winter.
04:33The hope is that even a brief drizzle could bring down the pollution levels for a few days.
04:40But experts caution that success depends entirely on the weather.
04:47If the clouds lack sufficient moisture, even perfectly executed seeding flights will fail to produce rain.
04:56So you see how it happens over there.
04:58The question really now is, has it worked elsewhere?
05:03Can it really produce results?
05:06So we picked up in our research three countries that have tried out cloud seeding.
05:11Number one is China.
05:13Now China runs the world's most extensive weather modification program.
05:18Studies show rainfall sort of increases to around 4 to 10% in certain regions where they tried it out.
05:26However, results vary widely and measuring success remains tricky.
05:32But China does do it.
05:34They do it constantly every time there's a big world event, a big sport event.
05:38They do cloud seeding as an active exercise.
05:41Then there is the UAE that has invested heavily again in seeding.
05:47With over 300 missions a year using aircraft and AI based targeting systems,
05:52just like those on your screen right now.
05:55Studies there suggest that 20 to 25% more rainfall in seeded clouds.
06:01But experts again emphasize that major weather events such as the 2024 Dubai floods, remember,
06:08were natural, not linked to seeding.
06:12So we've told you two countries so far.
06:14China, where it happened only about 5%.
06:17And then there is the UAE where floods came.
06:20And then questions were asked, was that because of cloud seeding?
06:23Let's look at the United States as a third country then.
06:27It uses it mainly for water management, especially in the Rockies.
06:32There is a project there called Snowee, which confirms small to measurable snow increase,
06:38typically 3 to 10%, useful for water storage, but not for solving for drought issues.
06:46So what are we telling you?
06:47In short, cloud seeding works when nature cooperates.
06:52It can nudge the clouds, but it can't replace them.
06:55But the question then is, will it help with pollution?
06:59That's the problem we face, unlike say what UAE or US faces.
07:04Rain naturally helps clean up the air by dragging down dust and pollutants.
07:09So yes, if seeding succeeds in targeting air rain, Delhi's air could feel noticeably fresher for a short time.
07:18However, scientists warn that effect is temporary, often lasting just between 24 to 48 hours.
07:26The underlying causes of pollution, which is basically vehicle exhaust, industrial emissions and crop burning,
07:32will quickly rebuild that smog.
07:36Experts have described seeding as a fire extinguisher, not a cure really over there.
07:43Useful in emergencies, but not a substitute for emission control.
07:47But, there are chemicals, remember that we said, that are used here.
07:52Is there a health concern?
07:54If you were to receive some of this rain, if possible, because of cloud seeding, do you have to worry?
08:00Well, cloud seeding typically uses two things.
08:03An instrument, or in fact a chemical, it's called silver iodide.
08:08A component effective at forming ice and clouds.
08:12At the small doses used, it's considered safe and even disperses quickly.
08:17But, health experts say that prolonged exposure could irritate the lungs, eyes or the skin,
08:24especially in people with asthma or bronchitis.
08:28Environmental scientists there also call for long term monitoring,
08:32as repeated large scale seeding might cause trace accumulation in soil or water.
08:38For now, this is just a rider remember.
08:41Most studies, including those cited here by us as well, find no immediate health risk from limited seeding,
08:50provided the environmental oversight is strict.
08:53So, what is the bottom line when it comes to cloud seeding?
08:56The technology is promising, but it cannot replace the hard work of cutting emissions.
09:02As experts say, you can seed the clouds, but you can't seed in clean air.
09:09Hope that was helpful in understanding what exactly is cloud seeding all about.
09:14So, having got, you know, that knowledge up your sleeve, let's try and get a quick reality check.
09:21Let's actually get under the clouds with my colleague, Soisha Sawant, who's joining us from Mayur Bihar,
09:27and also, Bilal Sharma, who joins us from the Central Secretariat.
09:31What exciting time, ladies, to try and understand if this experiment will really work or not.
09:36Everybody is waiting with bated breath at this point.
09:40I'm sure the politicians are as nervous as everybody else.
09:43What will it do or not?
09:45So, I'll come to Milan on that in just a bit.
09:48But, Soisha, I want to come to you.
09:50Is there any trace at all?
09:53Are you picking up from SkyMet, from weather department, that the weather is conducive?
09:59Because seeding has happened.
10:01Now, we have to sit back and go back to wait, you know, sort of praying to the weather gods, as it were, all over again.
10:12Soral, you know, you've very correctly put every aspect of it, and I was listening to you all along.
10:19And you very, very rightly said, you know, until the rain gods are happy, and unless the rain gods agree,
10:24you know, they say for a reason, man proposes, God disposes, and seemingly that is what is happening right now.
10:30Because while the seeding has been successfully done, but no signs of rain really that are out there as I stand in Mayur Bihar.
10:39Mayur Bihar being one of those places where it was supposed to rain.
10:43And we in the newsroom until a few hours ago when Manjinder Singh Sirsa had said that about 15 minutes to 4 hours is the time
10:50that it will approximately take for the rains to be witnessed for about 20 minutes.
10:55But that has not happened so far.
10:57I quickly want to take our viewers through the statement that was also released by IIT Kanpur just a short while ago,
11:04saying that they successfully executed a cloud seeding operation over Delhi,
11:08a corridor measuring roughly 25 nautical miles in length and 4 nautical miles in width,
11:12the largest distance covered between Kekra and north of Burari.
11:17The first round involved six flares that were released at an altitude of nearly 4,000 feet above the ground level,
11:23a bone duration of 18 and a half minutes, a second flight that took off at 3.55 p.m.
11:29That is 4 p.m. approximately, deploying eight flares at a higher altitude of around 5,000 to 6,000 feet.
11:36So that is the technicality of the fact that the seeding has happened successfully,
11:40but the rains that have not happened at least in this part of the national capital region of Delhi that we are talking about, Mayur Bihar.
11:49Now again to understand that the weather conditions have to be conducive and all that criteria has to meet.
11:55So when we are talking about the atmospheric moisture, when you are talking about the humidity levels,
12:00that also has to match for these chemicals to react, silver iodide and sodium chloride,
12:06for it to form the nuclei to be able to get the rain droplets.
12:12So simply, what these components do is they make the clouds, if they are present there, slightly heavy
12:18and then the job is actually will it rain or not.
12:21So we have to all wait to actually see that happen.
12:24Milan is also with us.
12:26Milan, how nervous is the environment minister right now?
12:30Wondering if this gamble has worked for him.
12:33Now, this is a tricky one because many are saying if it rains, then people will say it's because the rain gods had their way.
12:40If it doesn't, everybody is gonna, you know, pose a question to Mr. Sirsa ki bhai, kya hua?
12:45Aapne anta experiment karaya, three rounds of seedings have happened.
12:50Two has happened, one is scheduled to happen a little later in the day as well.
12:54What's happening at the Delhi Secretariat as we speak?
13:03Well, you know Sonal, this is the beauty of science because science works like this.
13:09You do all sorts of experiments and then you watch as the experiment unfolds.
13:15And that is something that is happening in the Delhi Secretariat right now.
13:19Everyone is waiting with bated breath to see whether or not this experience is going to move forward and work in the long term as well.
13:30And we are all waiting for it to show some results for it to rain but nothing has happened as of now.
13:36Perhaps because of the way science works.
13:39The whole day it's been smoggy and hazy.
13:42There's been very little cloud cover.
13:44The issue seems to be the lack of moisture in the dry air that is perhaps not really reacting well.
13:51Even for cloud seeding, clouds are necessary as you just explained.
13:55But what is fantastic right now is we are looking at a spotty, hazy, foggy, smoggy environment.
14:03When you look at the sky, you feel it's cloudy.
14:06But it's not.
14:07It's actually a thick grey haze cover.
14:10And on top of that, the clouds that you see are very small.
14:14So, you know, the gamble with this experiment is actually a big one, an ambitious one.
14:21But this is not going to be the only sortie that the government is going to try and use to make cloud seeding a success.
14:28And certainly with the IMD they're saying that this temperature is going to remain the same for the three, four days.
14:35Perhaps, you know, it would be prudent enough to look at a moisture filled day.
14:41And we're not going to see these days more often now as the temperature continues to drop.
14:46So that's the beauty of science.
14:48And that is the gamble with science that the government is now taking at least to make sure that the pollution level comes down.
14:55But the particulate matter is just being trapped all around us.
14:59And we're all going to be coughing soon in this hazy, hazy air until and unless it actually drizzles a little bit and gives us respite.
15:08And the window is actually long as well. It's anyways from 30 minutes to four hours.
15:13It could actually go on for longer as well. So we don't know how long we'll have to actually wait for this.
15:18And then there's also the question on whether or not this happened because of cloud seeding or was it a natural phenomenon?
15:24So there are lots of questions, which makes the story super duper exciting.
15:27Thank you both for joining us. And I hope you have your umbrellas out just in case it starts to rain.
15:33We'll get back to all of you on that update as well.
15:36But let me bring in the experts now. Mahesh Palawat, he's the Vice President for SkyMet Weather.
15:42He's the man who can tell us whether or not this will be a success or not.
15:48So I'm very excited to know the details from him.
15:50I hope he's got his latest weather patterns open on a laptop so he can give us all that information.
15:57Also with us is Vimlendu Jaa. He's an environmentalist and CEO at Green The Map.
16:03So first question really to you, Mr. Palawat. Is it going to rain or not?
16:09Are the weather gods supporting our scientific experiment?
16:14I have my doubts because the height of cloud is around 10,000 feet.
16:20The sky is covered. The sky is already cloudy with cloud height 10,000 feet and few clouds.
16:30They are at 3,500 feet. So for cloud seeding to happen, we need more clouds on lower levels, say between 2,000 to 4,000 feet or 5,000 feet with sufficient moisture like cumulonimbus cloud, cumulus cloud, which are not there.
16:46So it is very difficult for medium clouds to rain because cloud seeding is already taking place and chances are 70% to 30%, 30% chance of rain and 70% not to rain.
16:59Until unless there is low clouds, I have my doubts.
17:03But yes, moisture-laden winds are coming in the wake of cyclone Montha from Biopengal over most parts of North India, including Delhi and NCR.
17:12So we have to wait and see if the height of cloud lowers the lower down and the thickness of cloud also increases in due time, then it can happen.
17:23I see. Is it likely to change, Mr. Palawat, then in the next 24 to 48 hours or are you saying this sort of not very likely situation will continue?
17:37Well, obviously, the convection of clouds is more over Madhya Pradesh up to Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, East Rajasthan.
17:45Their rainfall is already taking place, natural rainfall.
17:48But as we move further north, upper latitudes up to Uttar Pradesh, some rain has happened in Uttar Pradesh also.
17:55So I am hoping that those clouds, the low clouds, may eventually travel up to Delhi, South Haryana and adjoining areas in due course of time by, say, the next 24 hours.
18:08And if it happens, then it is very much possibility there that cloud seeding will be successful and there will be rain over Delhi and NCR.
18:17All right. So not painting a very positive picture over there. So far, we don't know if it's going to happen or not.
18:24But stay on with us. Let me get in Vimrendu Jha as well. Vimrendu, can you explain the science to me?
18:29If the seeding has already happened and say there's a wind movement later and the clouds come in,
18:35the favorable clouds that can actually make rain fall at a lower level come in a little later.
18:40Will that require fresh seeding or this one will do?
18:44No, I'm not a cloud seeding expert because I think it's voodoo science when it comes to air seeding.
18:53Because right now, what you look at what's been happening, like it's a spectacle.
18:57Right now, Delhi's air quality monitors, 50% of them are not functional, they're sprinkled with water.
19:04And what are you and I discussing in the entire country?
19:07And I've been on TV shows since 2 p.m. today when the flight took off,
19:12that everyone is discussing this solution called cloud seeding, which is extremely unscientific.
19:18IIT Delhi has talked about it, that there's very little chance that it might work.
19:23And if it works still with all the vulnerabilities and denominators that are there, if it works,
19:28it's only going to marginally clean the air in one square kilometer area for perhaps 24 to 48 hours.
19:35Reality is that Delhi's air quality almost 159 days out of 365 days is poor to severe.
19:43And what we have seen right now in the last 10 days at least, and you and I have had that discussion,
19:48that, you know, imagine our monitors are not even working.
19:51We don't even know how polluted air is. And then in that cloud seeding as a solution of governance
19:58is making mostly of both air pollution and governance and the scientific...
20:03I take your point. I take your point, Mr. Jha, to a certain degree.
20:07But my question is, if you saw the explainer that I was just, you know, presenting to our viewers just a minute ago,
20:13we looked at other countries which have used cloud seeding.
20:16China, for example, is heavily invested in it and continues to use it.
20:20They are, in fact, expanding the program.
20:22Every time they have games or whatever, there's a consistent effort to bring in cloud seeding.
20:26UAE does it, US does it as well.
20:29So are you saying all these countries spending lakhs and, you know, if not, you know,
20:34hundreds and thousands of dollars on this are doing it to no return?
20:39No. So I'll tell you the story of Beijing is a very interesting one.
20:43Right now, of course, when we're discussing cloud seeding and Beijing and air pollution in the same breath,
20:48cloud seeding is the last thing that Beijing has perhaps done.
20:51And it does it for its events rather than for its normal days.
20:56Cloud seeding, you know, right now, Beijing is a classic example of how when there is political build,
21:02then you can actually clean your air.
21:04It was one of the most polluted capitals of the world till just eight, nine years ago.
21:08So what did they do? They actually invested money first in public transport.
21:13They looked at their entire coal thermal power plants moved outside the periphery of the immediate city.
21:19They looked at movement of industries and the industries were actually moved out from 100 to 200 kilometers
21:25outside the periphery of immediate urbanization.
21:28So therefore, for us to think these three examples that you gave of America, again, a different kind of a context altogether.
21:35They're not using it for air pollution.
21:37UAE, it is not using it for air pollution.
21:39And Beijing, 20 other things perhaps.
21:43And in last, is cloud seeding.
21:46Therefore, to really pit this as cloud seeding being solution to air pollution, a proven one,
21:54the misplaced understanding of both cloud seeding, nature, ecology, and air pollution.
21:59Of course, governance as well.
22:01Like right now…
22:02No, I agree.
22:03Like I said, I agree to a certain degree because…
22:05Also the budget.
22:06We need to understand the budget of…
22:08Let me just ask the question, I'll come back to you.
22:11Let's take a deep breath here and, you know, try and understand things.
22:15So, if you look at the efforts that have been made in the past couple of days…
22:19I get your point that on one hand, Delhi government allowed green crackers.
22:22On the other, they are doing cloud seeding.
22:24So what was the point?
22:25You're just negating one against the other, only hoping that the other one will work.
22:29I also take your point that scientifically, we know that this is just a temporary solution to bring it down.
22:35And you rightly said for events, which is how China uses it.
22:39But India made, like Delhi so far has made no other progress apart from Supreme Court setting in and putting in grant measures.
22:47There has been no other effort.
22:48So isn't then this at least one step in the right direction?
22:52Like, then this is…
22:53We are being very, very majboor citizens and majboor…
22:56I don't want to call you as majboor media…
22:58But are very, very majboor and lachar media and lachar citizens…
23:01When we are not even asking the right questions of the government.
23:04If it lasts 10 days, we haven't even got the pollution data…
23:07Forget about pollution action plan…
23:09Then we should be asking those questions…
23:11Or celebrating with umbrellas up whether it's going to rain or not…
23:14When we don't even know…
23:15By the way, when IIT, whatever, Kanpur has sent a flight…
23:20And two prominent professors of IIT Delhi…
23:22Have written an editorial piece in Hindu…
23:26Talking about how this is a pseudoscience, voodoo science…
23:29A great spectacle…
23:31And it hasn't worked…
23:32And it will not work…
23:33And we don't…
23:34We scientifically don't even know the impact…
23:35Like you said…
23:36And I'm sure a lot of points were actually taken…
23:38From that editorial piece…
23:39That we don't even know the impact…
23:41That this perhaps could have…
23:43On our water bodies…
23:44And also…
23:45On our…
23:46On our…
23:47And also the other weather experts…
23:48Will tell you…
23:49That just in case…
23:50God forbid…
23:51And that's also a warning…
23:52That IIT professors have given…
23:53That if…
23:54This cloud seeding…
23:55This so-called activation of artificial rain…
23:57If it coincides…
23:59With an existing rain conditions…
24:01There could be a situation of flooding…
24:03Yeah…
24:04And a weather event…
24:05So in the…
24:06In the times of climate era…
24:07When we're looking at…
24:08Like really adapting ourselves…
24:10Mitigating…
24:11With regard to climate change…
24:12When there are other…
24:13Governance-related solution…
24:15To pollution…
24:16It's at the source of pollution…
24:18That's a good point…
24:19That's a good point…
24:20Let me take it to…
24:21Let me take it to our other panelists…
24:22But just to say…
24:23Mr. Jha…
24:24I don't think we are so…
24:25We've been raising these questions…
24:26Pretty actively…
24:27Every day…
24:28On a day-to-day basis…
24:29So…
24:30Just to sort of clarify over there…
24:31At least on India today…
24:32At least on this show…
24:33I can tell you…
24:34We've been raising it…
24:35Constantly…
24:36And…
24:37Yeah…
24:38Okay…
24:39Good…
24:40I just had to clarify…
24:41Okay…
24:42Great…
24:43I understand…
24:44Is the SkyMet department…
24:46A little worried…
24:47On what could happen…
24:49What repercussions…
24:50Of…
24:51Cloud seeding…
24:52If successful…
24:53There could be…
24:54Is that…
24:55Mr. Pallavat…
24:56A discussion…
24:57That is happening within…
24:58Sir…
24:59I am not from…
25:00IMD…
25:01I am from SkyMet…
25:02But yes…
25:03Because…
25:04Bimladdu Jha is…
25:05Right…
25:06Because…
25:07If…
25:08It happens…
25:09If…
25:10Cloud seeding…
25:11Is successful…
25:12Then also…
25:13It will be…
25:14For a limited duration…
25:15The…
25:16Clearance will be…
25:17For a limited duration…
25:18And a limited area…
25:19Will be impacted…
25:20If…
25:21It is…
25:22Completely…
25:23We have…
25:24To…
25:25See…
25:26Right from…
25:27Entire…
25:28Haryana…
25:29Western parts of…
25:30Uttar Pradesh…
25:31North Rajasthan…
25:32Delhi…
25:33And NCR…
25:34So…
25:35It should be…
25:36In the vicinity…
25:37Of say…
25:38In the radius…
25:39Of 400…
25:40To 500…
25:41Kilometre…
25:42For pollution…
25:43To wipe out…
25:44Completely…
25:45So…
25:46It is a temporal…
25:47Remedy…
25:48But yes…
25:49Is not there…
25:50Motion is not sufficient…
25:51Clouds are not very low…
25:52They are not very dense…
25:53And it…
25:54It should be…
25:55Cumulus…
25:56Of cumulus cloud…
25:57And…
25:58The amount of cloud…
25:59Should be more than…
26:004 octa…
26:01Or 5 octa…
26:02So that…
26:03Cloud seeding…
26:04Will be successful…
26:05Yeah…
26:06Mr. Pilawat…
26:07Mr. Jha…
26:08Thank you both…
26:09For joining us…
26:10I think both the perspectives…
26:11Were very very important…
26:12To sort of highlight…
26:13Over here…
26:14Bottom line is very simple…
26:15Even if it were…
26:16It were successful…
26:17Which…
26:18It doesn't look likely…
26:19As of this time…
26:20Just about at…
26:215.55 pm…
26:22On 28th of October…
26:24As of now…
26:25It doesn't look likely…
26:26But even if it were…
26:27We are not looking at…
26:28A full time solution…
26:29On air pollution…
26:30That's it from us…
26:31Of…
26:32It's time to need…
26:33As of now…
26:34But…
26:35How is…
26:37What about…
26:38Waterford…
26:39And…
26:40To your lead…
26:41No…
26:42The water…
26:44The water…
26:45Do you…
26:46That water…
26:47Is the water…
26:48The water…
26:49Is the water…
26:50Is the water…
26:51Is the water…
26:52Is the water…
26:53The water…
26:54Is the water…
26:55The water…
26:56One water…
Be the first to comment