- 3 months ago
This edition of 5 Live focusses on Delhi's ambitious cloud seeding experiment, a government initiative with IIT-Kanpur to induce artificial rain and combat the city's toxic air pollution.
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00:00Hello and welcome. I'm Sonal Mehrotra Kapoor. This is Five Live.
00:15The countdown for artificial rains in Delhi has begun.
00:20In a bold attempt to clear the capital's choking skies,
00:23an aircraft from IIT Kanpur took off today, releasing special salt-based and silver iodine flares into clouds above Delhi.
00:34What is all that? I'll tell you that in just a moment.
00:36But what's the latest?
00:37Now, the Delhi Environment Minister, Majinder Sirsa, has confirmed that two rounds of what is called cloud seeding
00:44has already been completed, with a third expected any time now.
00:49So, we are waiting to see if Delhi will witness its first ever artificial rainfall
00:56and perhaps will bring with it a temporary respite, if at all, from its toxic air.
01:04What are the chances? Well, right off the bat, I can tell you it's a little 50-50 over there.
01:09But first, let's deep dive into what exactly is cloud seeding.
01:16First up, listen in from the Chief Minister.
01:46We are waiting to see, cloud seeding, cloud seeding, cloud seeding,
01:50flood and water, which are ambient and some kind of rain, which are caused by the conditions.
01:53Actually, it makes it clear that the conditions will create and it will create all the adverse effects.
01:56That's how difficult it will get us to.
01:57This is our own environment, since Delhi is the first time.
02:00And during this year, I will recommend not to be sure this trial is the same as the first time.
02:01But I hope to ensure that this trial is the almost result of our trials and that the law gets Awesome.
02:06Laam Millet.
02:36So you heard from the politicians there, but what exactly is cloud seeding?
03:04And can it really fix Delhi's dirty air?
03:07Let's start with this explainer and start by telling you how it actually works.
03:12Now think of cloud seeding as giving reluctant clouds a bit of a push.
03:17Scientists use aircraft or even rockets sometimes to spray tiny particles,
03:22usually from silver, iodide, salt or even dry ice,
03:26into clouds that already contain moisture.
03:28These particles act as seeds, helping water droplets form and eventually fall as rain or sometimes as snow.
03:38Important to understand that cloud seeding can't really create rain from clear skies.
03:44It only enhances the precipitation when the right type of cloud is already present.
03:50So what is this Delhi experiment all about?
03:54Now Delhi is now preparing for its first large-scale artificial rain operation led by researchers from IIT Kanpur.
04:02Now apparently a successful test run was already conducted earlier in Burari
04:06and the main operation is planned between today and the 30th of October, 28th to 30th of October,
04:13depending all, not just on the science, but on weather and flight visibility.
04:19The idea is simple.
04:21Trigger light rainfall to help wash off the fine particulate matter, PM 2.5, PM 10,
04:27then blanket the city, you know, this entire PM 2.5, PM 10, that blankets the city every winter.
04:33The hope is that even a brief drizzle could bring down the pollution levels for a few days.
04:41But experts caution that success depends entirely on the weather.
04:48If the clouds lack sufficient moisture, even perfectly executed seeding flights will fail to produce rain.
04:57So you see how it happens over there.
04:59The question really now is, has it worked elsewhere?
05:04Can it really produce results?
05:06So we picked up in our research three countries that have tried out cloud seeding.
05:12Number one is China.
05:13Now China runs the world's most extensive weather modification program.
05:19Studies show rainfall sort of increases to around 4 to 10% in certain regions where they tried it out.
05:26However, results vary widely and measuring success remains tricky.
05:33But China does do it.
05:34They do it constantly every time there's a big world event, a big sport event.
05:39They do cloud seeding as an active exercise.
05:42Then there is the UAE that has invested heavily again in seeding.
05:47With over 300 missions a year using aircraft and AI-based targeting systems, just like those on your screen right now.
05:55Studies there suggest that 20 to 25% more rainfall in seeded clouds.
06:01But experts again emphasize that major weather events such as the 2024 Dubai floods, remember, were natural, not linked to seeding.
06:13So we've told you two countries so far.
06:15China where it happened only about 5% and then there is the UAE where floods came.
06:20And then questions were asked, was that because of cloud seeding?
06:24Let's look at United States as a third country then.
06:27It uses it mainly for water management, especially in the Rockies.
06:32There is a project there called Snowy, which confirms small to measurable snow increase, typically 3 to 10%, useful for water storage, but not for solving for drought issues.
06:46So what are we telling you?
06:48In short, cloud seeding works when nature cooperates.
06:53It can nudge the clouds, but it can't replace them.
06:56But the question then is, will it help with pollution?
07:00That's the problem we face, unlike, say, what UAE or US faces.
07:05Now, rain naturally helps clean up the air by dragging down dust and pollutants.
07:10So yes, if seeding succeeds in targeting air rain, Delhi's air could feel noticeably fresher for a short time.
07:19However, scientists warn that effect is temporary, often lasting just between 24 to 48 hours.
07:26The underlying causes of pollution, which is basically vehicle exhaust, industrial emissions, and crop burning, will quickly rebuild that smog.
07:36Experts have described seeding as a fire extinguisher, not a cure really over there.
07:44Useful in emergencies, but not a substitute for emission control.
07:48But, there are chemicals, remember that we said, that are used here.
07:52Is there a health concern?
07:54If you were to receive some of this rain, if possible, because of cloud seeding, do you have to worry?
08:00Well, cloud seeding typically uses two things.
08:03An instrument, or in fact a chemical, it's called silver iodide.
08:08A component effective at forming ice and clouds.
08:12At the small doses used, it's considered safe and even disperses quickly.
08:18But health experts say that prolonged exposure could irritate the lungs, the eyes, or the skin,
08:25especially in people with asthma or bronchitis.
08:27Environmental scientists there, also call for long-term monitoring,
08:32as repeated large-scale seeding might cause trace accumulation in soil or water.
08:39For now, this is just a rider, remember.
08:41Most studies, including those cited here by us as well,
08:46find no immediate health risk from limited seeding, provided the environmental oversight is strict.
08:53So, what is the bottom line when it comes to cloud seeding?
08:57The technology is promising, but it cannot replace the hard work of cutting emissions.
09:04As experts say, you can seed the clouds, but you can't seed in clean air.
09:10Hope that was helpful in understanding what exactly is cloud seeding all about.
09:14So, having got, you know, that knowledge up your sleeve, let's try and get a quick reality check.
09:22Let's actually get under the clouds with my colleague, Sohisha Sawant, who's joining us from Mayur Bihar,
09:28and also Milan Sharma, who comes, who joins us from the Central Secretariat.
09:31What exciting time, ladies, to try and understand if this experiment will really work or not.
09:37Everybody is waiting with bated breath at this point.
09:41I'm sure the politicians are as nervous as everybody else.
09:44Hei kaam karega nahi karega.
09:46So, I'll come to Milan on that in just a bit.
09:49But, Sohisha, I want to come to you.
09:51Is there any trace at all?
09:53Are you picking up from SkyMed, from weather department, that the weather is conducive?
09:59Because seeding has happened, now we have to sit back and go back to wait, you know,
10:05sort of praying to the weather gods as it were, all over again.
10:13Soral, you know, you've very correctly put every aspect of it, and I was listening to you all along.
10:19And you very, very rightly said, you know, until the rain gods are happy, and unless the rain gods agree,
10:25you know, they say for a reason, man proposes, God disposes.
10:28And seemingly, that is what is happening right now, because while the seeding has been successfully done,
10:34but no signs of rain, really, that are out there as I stand in Mayur Bihar,
10:40Mayur Bihar being one of those places where it was supposed to rain.
10:44And we in the newsroom until a few hours ago, when Manjinder Singh Sirsa had said that about 15 minutes to 4 hours
10:50is the time that it will approximately take for the rains to be witnessed for about 20 minutes.
10:55But that has not happened so far.
10:58I quickly want to take our viewers through the statement that was also released by IIT Kanpur just a short while ago,
11:04saying that they successfully executed a cloud seeding operation over Delhi,
11:09a corridor measuring roughly 25 nautical miles in length and 4 nautical miles in width,
11:13the largest distance covered between Kekra and north of Burari.
11:17The first round involved six flares that were released at an altitude of nearly 4,000 feet above the ground level,
11:24bone duration of 18 and a half minutes, a second flight that took off at 3.55 p.m., that is 4 p.m. approximately,
11:31deploying eight flares at a higher altitude of around 5,000 to 6,000 feet.
11:36So, that is the technicality of the fact that the seeding has happened successfully,
11:41but the rains that have not happened, at least in this part of the national capital region of Delhi that we are talking about, Mayur Bihar.
11:50Now, again, to understand that the weather conditions have to be conducive and all that criteria has to meet.
11:56So, when we are talking about the atmospheric moisture, when you are talking about the humidity levels,
12:00that also has to match for these chemicals to react, silver iodide and sodium chloride,
12:08for it to form the nuclei to be able to get the rain droplets.
12:13To actually put it simply, what these components do is they make the clouds,
12:16if they are present there, slightly heavy and then the job is actually will it rain or not.
12:21So, we have to all wait to actually see that happen.
12:25Milan is also with us. Milan, how nervous is the Environment Minister right now?
12:31Wondering if this gamble has worked for him.
12:34Now, this is a tricky one because many are saying if it rains,
12:38then people will say it's because the rain gods had their way.
12:41If it doesn't, everybody is going to, you know, pose a question to Mr. Sirsati,
12:45what happened?
12:46You have done so many experiments, three rounds of seeding have happened.
12:51Two has happened, one is scheduled to happen a little later in the day as well.
12:55What's happening at the Delhi Secretariat as we speak?
13:00Well, you know, Sonal, this is the beauty of science because science works like this.
13:09You do all sorts of experiments and then you watch as the experiment unfolds.
13:15And that is something that is happening in the Delhi Secretariat right now.
13:19Everyone is waiting with bated breath to see whether or not this experience is going to move forward and work in the long term as well.
13:30And we are all waiting for it to show some results, for it to rain, but nothing has happened as of now.
13:35Perhaps because of the way science works.
13:39The whole day it's been smoggy and hazy.
13:43There's been very little cloud cover.
13:45The issue seems to be the lack of moisture in the dry air.
13:49That is perhaps not really reacting well.
13:52Even for cloud seeding, clouds are necessary as you just explained.
13:55But what is fantastic right now is we are looking at a spotty, hazy, foggy, smoggy environment.
14:04When you look at the sky, you feel it's cloudy, but it's not.
14:08It's actually a thick grey haze cover.
14:10And on top of that, the clouds that you see are very small.
14:15So, you know, the gamble with this experiment is actually a big one, an ambitious one.
14:21But this is not going to be the only sortie that the government is going to try and use to make cloud seeding a success.
14:29And certainly with the IMD, they're saying that this temperature is going to remain the same for the three, four days.
14:35Perhaps, you know, it would be prudent enough to look at a moisture-filled day.
14:41And we're not going to see these days more often now as the temperature continues to drop.
14:46So, that's the beauty of science.
14:48And that is the gamble with science that the government is now taking at least to make sure that the pollution level comes down.
14:56But the particulate matter is just being trapped all around us.
14:59And we're all going to be coughing soon in this hazy, hazy air until and unless it actually drizzles a little bit and gives us respite.
15:08And the window is actually long as well.
15:10It's anyways from 30 minutes to 4 hours, it could actually go on for longer as well.
15:15So, we don't know how long we'll have to actually wait for this.
15:18And then there's also the question on whether or not this happened because of cloud seeding or was it a natural phenomenon.
15:24So, there are lots of questions which makes the story super duper exciting.
15:28Thank you both for joining us.
15:29And I hope you have your umbrellas out just in case it starts to rain.
15:33We'll get back to all of you on that update as well.
15:36But let me bring in the experts now.
15:39Mahesh Palawat, he's the Vice President for SkyMet Weather.
15:43He's the man who can tell us whether or not this will be a success or not.
15:48So, I'm very excited to know the details from him.
15:51I hope he's got his latest weather patterns open on a laptop so he can give us all that information.
15:57Also with us is Vimlendu Jaa, he's an environmentalist and CEO at Green the Map.
16:03So, first question really to you, Mr. Palawat, is it going to rain or not?
16:09Are the weather gods supporting our scientific experiment?
16:13Say, Sonal, I have my doubts because the height of cloud is around 10,000 feet.
16:22The sky is covered.
16:24The sky is already cloudy with cloud height 10,000 feet and few clouds.
16:30They are at 3,500 feet.
16:32So, for cloud seeding to happen, we need more clouds on lower levels, say, between 2,000 to 4,000 feet or 5,000 feet with sufficient moisture like cumulonimbus cloud, cumulus cloud, which are not there.
16:46So, it is very difficult for medium clouds to rain because cloud seeding is already taking place.
16:52And chances are, say, 70 to 30 percent, 30 percent chance of rain and 70 percent not to rain until unless there is low clouds, I have my doubts.
17:04But, yes, moisture-laden winds are coming in the wake of cyclone Montha from Bayou Bengal over most parts of North India, including Delhi and NCR.
17:12So, we have to wait and see if the height of cloud lowers the lower down and the thickness of cloud also increases in due time, then it can happen.
17:23Yeah.
17:23I see.
17:24Is it likely to change, Mr. Pallavad, then in the next 24 to 48 hours?
17:30Or are you saying this sort of not very likely situation will continue?
17:36See, the convection of clouds is more over Madhya Pradesh up to Madhya Pradesh, Ujjath, East Sahistan.
17:45Their rainfall is already taking place, natural rainfall.
17:48But as we move further north, upper latitudes up to Uttar Pradesh, some rain has happened in Uttar Pradesh also.
17:56So, I am hoping that those clouds, the low clouds, may eventually travel up to Delhi, South Haryana and adjoining areas in due course of time by, say, in the next 24 hours.
18:08And if it happens, then it is very much a possibility there that cloud seeding will be successful and there will be rain over Delhi and NCR.
18:17All right.
18:19So, not painting a very positive picture over there.
18:22So far, we don't know if it's going to happen or not.
18:25But stay on with us.
18:25Let me get in Vimrendu Jai as well.
18:27Vimrendu, can you explain the science to me?
18:29If the seeding has already happened and say there's a wind movement later and the clouds come in, the favorable clouds that can actually make rain fall at a lower level come in a little later.
18:41Will that require fresh seeding or this one will do?
18:44I have, no, I'm not a sound, you know, a cloud seeding expert because I think it's voodoo science when it comes to air seeding.
18:53Because right now, what you look at what's been happening, like, it's a spectacle.
18:58Like, when, right now, Delhi's air quality monitors, 50% of them are not functional.
19:03They're sprinkled with water.
19:05And what are you and I discussing in the entire country?
19:07And I've been on TV shows since 2 p.m. today when the flight took off, that everyone is discussing this solution called cloud seeding, which is extremely unscientific.
19:18IIT Delhi has talked about it, that, you know, there's very little chance that it might work.
19:24And if it works still, with all the vulnerabilities and denominators that are there, if it works, it's only going to marginally clean the air in one square kilometer area for perhaps 24 to 48 hours.
19:35Reality is that Delhi's air quality, almost 159 days out of 365 days, is poor to severe.
19:43And what we have seen right now in the last 10 days at least, and you and I have had that discussion, that, you know, imagine our monitors are not even working.
19:51We don't even know how polluted air is.
19:54And then, looking at cloud seeding as a solution of governance is making mostly of both air pollution and governance and the scientific...
20:03I take your point, I take your point, Mr. Jha, to a certain degree.
20:08But my question is, if you saw the explainer that I was just, you know, presenting to our viewers just a minute ago, we looked at other countries which have used cloud seeding.
20:16China, for example, is heavily invested in it and continues to use it.
20:21They're, in fact, expanding the program.
20:22Every time they have games or whatever, there's a consistent effort to bring in cloud seeding.
20:26So, UAE does it, U.S. does it as well.
20:29So, are you saying all these countries spending lakhs and, you know, if not, you know, hundreds and thousands of dollars on this are doing it to no return?
20:40No.
20:40So, I'll tell you, the story of Beijing is a very interesting one.
20:43Right now, of course, when we're discussing cloud seeding and Beijing and air pollution in the same breath, cloud seeding is the last thing that Beijing has perhaps done.
20:52And it does it for its events rather than for its normal days.
20:57Cloud seeding, you know, right now, Beijing is a classic example of how when there is political build, then you can actually clean your air.
21:04It was one of the most polluted capitals of the world till just eight, nine years ago.
21:08So, what did they do?
21:10They actually invested money first in public transport.
21:13They looked at their entire coal, thermal, power plants, moved outside the periphery of the immediate city.
21:19They looked at movement of industries and the industries were actually moved out from 100 to 200 kilometers outside the periphery of immediate urbanization.
21:28So, therefore, for us to think these three examples that you gave of America, again, a different kind of a context altogether.
21:35They're not using it for air pollution.
21:37UAE, it is not using it for air pollution.
21:40And Beijing, 20 other things perhaps.
21:44And in last part, it is cloud seeding.
21:46So, therefore, to really pit this as cloud seeding being a solution to air pollution, a proven one, a misplaced understanding of both cloud seeding, nature, ecology, and air pollution.
22:00And of course, governance as well.
22:01Like right now…
22:02I agree.
22:03Like I said, I agree to a certain degree because…
22:05Also, the budget.
22:06So, we need to understand the budget of…
22:08Let me just ask the question.
22:11I'll come back to you.
22:12Let's take a deep breath here and, you know, try and understand things.
22:15So, if you look at the efforts that have been made in the past couple of days, I get your point that on one hand, Delhi government allowed green crackers.
22:23On the other, they are doing cloud seeding.
22:24So, what was the point?
22:25You're just negating one against the other, only hoping that the other one will work.
22:29I also take your point that scientifically, we know that this is just a temporary solution to bring it down.
22:35And you rightly said for events, which is how China uses it.
22:39But India made, like Delhi so far, has made no other progress apart from Supreme Court setting in and putting in grant measures.
22:46There has been no other effort.
22:48So, isn't then this at least one step in the right direction?
22:52Like, then this is, we are being very, very majboor citizens and majboor, as in, I don't want to call you as majboor media, but are very, very majboor and lachar media and lachar citizens when we are not even asking the right questions of the government.
23:04If it lasts 10 days, we haven't even got the pollution data, forget about pollution action plan, then we should be asking those questions or celebrating with umbrellas up whether it's going to rain or not when we don't even know.
23:16So, by the way, when IIT, whatever, Kanpur has sent a flight and two prominent professors of IIT Delhi have written an editorial piece in Hindu talking about how this is a pseudoscience, voodoo science, a great spectacle and it hasn't worked and it will not work.
23:33And we don't, we scientifically don't even know the impact, like you said, and I'm sure a lot of points were actually taken from that editorial piece, that we don't even know the impact that this perhaps could have on our water bodies and also on our soil.
23:47And also the other weather experts will tell you that just in case, God forbid, and that's also a warning that IIT professors have given, that if this cloud seeding, this so-called activation of artificial rain, if it coincides with an existing rain conditions, there could be a situation of flooding and weather event.
24:05So, in the times of climate era, when we're looking at, like, really adapting ourselves, mitigating with regard to climate change, when there are other governance-related solutions to pollution, it's at the source of pollution.
24:18That's a good point. That's a good point. Let me take it to our other panelists. But just to say, Mr. Jha, I don't think we are so bechaara. We've been raising these questions pretty actively every day on a day-to-day basis.
24:29So, just to sort of clarify over there, at least on India today, at least on this show, I can tell you, we've been raising it constantly.
24:36And, yeah, okay, good. I just had to clarify. Okay, great. But can I come back to Mr. Pallava then, just to understand, is the SkyMed department a little worried on what could happen, what repercussions of cloud seeding, if successful, there could be?
24:54Is that, Mr. Pallava, the discussion that is happening with it?
24:59Sir, I am not from IMD, I am from SkyMed. But, yes, because Mimlandu Jha is right, because if it happens, if cloud seeding is successful, then also it will be for a limited duration, the clearance will be for a limited duration, and a limited area will be impacted.
25:17So, for the pollution to erase completely, we have to see rain widespread rain, right from entire Haryana, western parts of Uttar Pradesh, North Rajasthan, Delhi, and NCR.
25:33So, it should be in the vicinity of, say, in the radius of 400 to 500 kilometers for pollution to wipe out completely.
25:41So, it is a temporal remedy. But, yes, chances of success are also very, very less, because moisture is not there, moisture is not sufficient, clouds are not very low, they are not very dense.
25:54So, it should be cumulus of cumulus cloud, and the amount of cloud should be more than 4 octa or 5 octa, so that the cloud seeding will be successful.
26:05Mr. Pilawat, Mr. Jha, thank you both for joining us. I think both the perspectives were very, very important to sort of highlight over here.
26:12Bottom line is very simple, even if it were successful, which it doesn't look likely as of this point, as of this time, just about at 5.55 p.m. on 28th of October.
26:24As of now, it doesn't look likely, but even if it were, we are not looking at a full-time solution on air pollution.
26:30That's it from us.
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