US Shutdown Enters Second Week, With No Deal in Sight

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00:00Eric Wasson is certainly looking. Bloomberg congressional reporter hasn't missed a beat up there,

00:04and he's back on the Hill today with us now live on Bloomberg TV and radio. It's like Groundhog Day

00:10up there, right, Eric? Yeah, it looks to be. It looks like the votes will fail again, you know,

00:14barring some last-minute surprise. And, you know, we had a story on the terminal today. The White

00:19House is signaling if this Monday vote does go down, they're prepared to announce and unleash

00:24a new round of mass firings. You know, I'm not entirely sure what agencies would be targeted

00:31or even if that's an empty threat. We know from past experience that, you know, layoffs do require

00:36a lot of paperwork. You know, Human Resources would have had to be working overtime over the weekend

00:41to prepare and make sure these are legally bulletproof. But, you know, that could be the big

00:45development today if there are mass firings. We're also looking to see if moderates are any closer

00:50to some kind of off-ramp for Democrats. You know, I talked to a well-placed source earlier

00:57today who said that they're trying to entice just enough Democrats, five Democrats, to come over

01:02and vote for the stopgap bill by saying, look, we'll pass some of these regular appropriations

01:07bills. There's what's called a minibus funding the Agricultural Veterans Affairs and other

01:12departments. We could pass that. Maybe pair the defense bill with a labor, health, and human

01:17services bill. You know, that has a big increase for the National Institutes of Health. So that

01:23Democrats could say, OK, look, we fought Trump's attempts to cut medical research. So far, that's

01:27not getting enough traction. Democrats are still saying, look, we have the larger issue

01:31of the Obamacare subsidies, and that has to be addressed in some way, not just a vague promise

01:36to deal with it later before we can sign on.

01:39Boy, all right. Well, I don't know if we're going to get a layoff announcement here today,

01:43but I just wonder about the two dates that everyone's looking at, Eric. The 10th is when

01:49federal workers start missing a pay cycle. The 15th would be for members of the military.

01:54Would those compel a couple of Democrats to cross the aisle and get this done?

01:59I think it's certainly a very, you know, motivating factor. And certainly economic terms,

02:05we start to see missed paychecks, you know, real ramifications to GDP start to pile up.

02:10You know, the Trump shutdown in 2019 really ended when air traffic controllers said they're not

02:15going to work anymore without pay and started to threaten to close down the skies. You know,

02:20at some point, you do have essential workers say, look, this is enough. So, you know, that could add

02:26some pressure. If we go beyond that, though, you know, both sides may even feel they want to dig in.

02:30So I think there's a real feeling, you know, we talked to Mike Rounds as one of these moderate

02:34Republicans trying to negotiate some kind of near-term deal and also a deal on Obamacare

02:40subsidies saying, look, this drags out. The rhetoric could get even more heated. Let's do something

02:44now. So far, that plea is falling on deaf ears, at least here in the Senate.

02:50You mentioned the Obamacare subsidies, which is something we certainly chewed on a lot

02:53last week. Eric, whether we get there or not, in terms of this continuing resolution,

03:00and maybe there's a promise to get an up or down vote on Obamacare subsidies. But what makes us

03:05think the government won't just be headed for another shutdown at the end of the year here if

03:09we can barely get this done now? You know, it's certainly a possibility. And I feel like,

03:15you know, Republicans are hoping they kind of break Chuck Schumer here. You know, if Chuck Schumer

03:20sees a defection of Democrats, you know, and is unable to hold the line, then his, you know, future

03:27threats, perhaps in December or even beyond of not, you know, voting for a spending bill

03:32may ring hollow. We're also looking into the possibility that the Senate could change its

03:37rules. It's done so for nominees. You know, it could change its rules to say, for example,

03:43a stopgap spending bill in the event of a shutdown only requires a simple majority. But there's certainly

03:49some experts who believe that would be the end of the legislative filibuster. And Republicans are

03:54loathe to really go that far, because then we'll see perhaps Democrats come in one day and make

03:59D.C. a state, Puerto Rico a state, do other things without the threat of a filibuster holding them

04:04up. Keep hearing about a jailbreak, Eric, right? You got Fetterman, Cortez Masto, King. That means

04:12they'd only need a handful more Democrats here. You don't have to have a grand bargain if you can peel

04:17off a couple more names, right? Right. And that's why they're really looking at certain appropriators

04:22like Gene Shaheen, people who know that buried in these appropriations bills, there are potential

04:27victories for Democrats. There is a potential pushback on White House budget. Director Russ

04:33Vogt, you know, who's wanted to slash all of these federal jobs. You know, if the appropriations

04:39process goes forward and passes higher spending levels for agencies like the NIH, like the Department

04:45of Education, then you certainly have a case to go to the Supreme Court and say Congress intended

04:50these to be fully staffed. In the absence of any bills, certainly the White House is going

04:55to see a lot more flexibility and certainly see its court case before the Supreme Court

05:01enhance. So there is that argument in the backdrop. But, you know, the ACA issue is so paramount

05:06and a real sense among Democrats that because, you know, as we reported, some 70 to 80 percent

05:13of recipients of Obamacare subsidies are in Republican one states, that the Republicans will come around

05:20on that. We're also looking to see where a deal could be. There's some reporting. We're trying

05:24to confirm that there's a White House proposal to only allow previous enrollees to get the subsidies

05:29from capping and ending the program. We'll see if that plays out.

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