Government Shutdown to Disrupt a Second Week of Economic Data

Watch Government Shutdown to Disrupt a Second Week of Economic Data - Bloomberg on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00Mike, what do we look at if we don't have the traditional economic indicators?

00:04Well, you can watch a lot of Bloomberg surveillance. That's one thing you could do,

00:08because at this point, we've got to buy into the idea that this is going to go on for a while.

00:12That seems to be the word out of Washington. In that case, the good news is we don't have

00:16a lot of significant data due out this week. We'll miss trade figures tomorrow,

00:20jobless claims on Thursday, inventories on Thursday, not big indicators that are going

00:26to change anybody's mind about the Fed. We do get New York Fed inflation expectations today

00:30and the University of Michigan sentiment on Friday. Wednesday is probably the big day.

00:35Fed minutes, first meeting for Stephen Myron. What was it like? What did people say? And what

00:40did they say about continuing the rate cutting cycle? We will also get lots of Fed speak to that

00:46point. The question is, how much of it is really going to matter since they don't have something

00:50new to talk about? You can see there's a tremendous number of speakers led off today

00:55by Jeffrey Schmidt. He's the Kansas City Fed president. He is the most hawkish perhaps on

01:04the board and a lot of people speaking. But again, what are they going to say when there's

01:09no new data to talk about next week? That's what they're going to talk about. Next week is going

01:14to be a really good week. I'm just putting this out there to make you feel better about the things

01:19that we're going to miss if they don't get done. Jay Powell is speaking on Tuesday, the 14th,

01:25and he is speaking about the economic outlook. That is going to be the highlight of the week,

01:30no doubt. Then we get CPI, PPI, retail sales, import prices and housing starts. Or we don't

01:37get them if the government remains open, remains shut for a third week. So something to look forward

01:43to and keep your fingers crossed maybe. Well, Mike, let's go with CPI. That's about nine days

01:47away. Is there a key collection period that would mean even if we opened up, say, the day before,

01:52that they wouldn't be able to produce the data? It depends on how much time they have. They have

01:58been struggling with a lack of people to do all the work. In 2013, they did produce a CPI when the

02:05government finally reopened. And it was based on about 45 percent of the usual data but wasn't revised

02:12significantly going forward. So they can't do it. It's a question of how much credence you'll give

02:17the numbers and how much it's going to matter by the time they finally get it out.