00:00Let's talk about gold. It's actually, for a change, quite flat this morning, but it's been on a tear.
00:04Caught the attention of Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, upping their target on gold for the end of next year.
00:09What are you seeing this morning of interest in the gold price?
00:12Yeah, so as you say, it is about flat this morning. It's come off, but overnight it's surged to fresh records,
00:17you know, above, futures above, you know, 4,000, and actually Goldman Sachs have increased their forecast for next year to over 4,900.
00:25You know, these are sort of unprecedented times for the gold market, but that all comes above, amid this backdrop of extreme political uncertainty.
00:34We're seeing it in Europe with France, and whilst the U.S. government shutdown goes on.
00:38So it's partly that sort of haven bid, but also at the moment with the absence of fresh U.S. data, the, you know,
00:46the market is still pricing in a rate cut from the Fed, but it's difficult for people to know whether that's going to change.
00:52Now, that would be positive for gold. So at the moment, the momentum looks set to continue.
00:55Of course, I think the risk is that if we do start to get data back from the U.S., you know, that could shift the picture.
01:01And actually, markets are starting to, you know, put those haven bids somewhere else slightly.
01:07Again, this morning, we're seeing a rebound in Japanese bonds, and that is what's taken the shine of gold.
01:11So is that the connection? Because what I'm also seeing is the dollar a little stronger this morning.
01:15Is it gold down, dollar up, or is it dollar up, gold down? Kind of which leads?
01:21Well, this morning, we're certainly seeing, you know, dollar up, I suppose, as gold stagnates a little.
01:26I think there's other reasons for the dollar's strength. It has been a really bad story for the dollar so far this year.
01:31And I think attention is now moving from some of that trade uncertainty that was weighing on it.
01:37And attention's moved elsewhere. Like I just mentioned, that political uncertainty in France, you know, really, you know, weighing on the euro.
01:45And other, you know, in Japan as well, that that's going to help sort of support the dollar.
01:51And again, in this sort of dearth of U.S. data, there is the chance that actually rate cuts might turn out slightly different to how they're being priced.
01:59And that could also support the dollar going forward as well.
02:02So I think there's a bit of a recovery momentum there.
02:04But also, it's taking up some of that haven bid that perhaps is coming from the gold, as you mentioned.
02:10Well, speaking of haven bid, we went through the gold. We went through the dollar story.
02:13Let's talk about the tech stocks. Of course, that functions as a defensive bid as well.
02:17Are we partying like 1999, as Paul Tudor Jones would suggest?
02:21We do seem to just be going from, you know, one high to another.
02:25You know, really quite huge rallies there.
02:27We've seen the S&P closed a record again yesterday.
02:30And the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, you know, is up 6% just this month, since the start of the month.
02:35You know, that's really quite astounding.
02:37And that's, of course, on the back of all of these deals, you know, in the AI space.
02:42And we had AMD, you know, with OpenAI yesterday driving the market.
02:47I think the question is how far this goes is everything's being driven by an abundance of news.
02:52So if we don't have some news, you know, is there going to be the momentum there to sustain it?
02:57And as we were just mentioning, if some of these other uncertainties dissipate from the rest of the market,
03:02you know, whether there's still that sort of frothy interest.
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