00:00We started this program talking about what is driving markets, the idea that nothing sticks to stocks, they just keep climbing and climbing.
00:07And I cited your comments from last week saying that at the end of the day there will be tariffs and the average tariff rate on the U.S. will be higher than it was previously and stocks still have to price that in.
00:17When do we start to see that happen?
00:19I've been trying to work. So let's look at the six month anniversary of like Trump's inauguration and kind of the scorecard.
00:24And I think some of the moves make a lot of sense. So obviously, we've had a lot of volatility. Not surprising.
00:31Dollar weakness, not surprising from the camp that I was in. Global stocks doing OK.
00:37So global stocks doing, you know, OK through the volatility. Fine. That actually was OK with me.
00:41U.S. stocks underperforming makes sense. I'm surprised how resilient U.S. stocks have done. So I'll come back to that.
00:46And I think yields ultimately being really volatile but caught between a mixture of kind of, you know, different drivers means they've net gone nowhere.
00:54Too dramatically. So what happens in the next bit? So I think the dollar downtrend can continue, but it's going to be more volatile from here.
01:00We've done the easy bit than we've done the dramatic bit. I continue to think U.S. stocks underperform.
01:04I'm a little bit worried we're due another more negative environment for that.
01:08So I'm overall remain stocks, global stocks will do very well in the next coming years because the easing of financial conditions from weaker dollar.
01:14And I think global growth will be fine. I think AI technology boom. But I continue to think U.S. stocks underperform.
01:19But I think that, you know, with the tariff deadline coming up, that's going to be more pressing very soon.
01:25So I think that's the thing that's going to change things. Two extra bits.
01:27What happens to yields in the second half? I am very, very confused there.
01:30Do we play the growth scenario of tariffs or do we get worried about fiscal concerns, a little bit more dramatic long-end yields?
01:35But I know where the extra catalyst is there. We've had the big, beautiful bill. We've had the Japanese election.
01:40We've, you know, we've had everything that should be the big catalyst for the sell-off.
01:43And it's not really gone dramatic yet. So ultimately, I guess the big question is, what happens with tariffs with the private sector?
01:49How much of a private sector contraction do we get? That's going to decide what happens to U.S. stocks.
01:53But at the moment, all good. U.S. market cracks on. U.S. economy looks really resilient.
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