00:00Mark you've been warning about this this Bitcoin tech correlation this Bitcoin tech kind of sentiment that's wrapped into each other. Your take on what this chart is showing. Yeah I think we will continue to see some of that negativity from the crypto space. I know it's trading stronger today but I don't think the sell off there is over. I think the digital asset treasury companies have turned into a negative for the space. So I think that the negativity in crypto will continue to lean on tech and will feed into this
00:29rotation theme. As we've talked a lot about in recent weeks I do think crypto is at the leading edge of as a sentiment tell and kind of guides us where the retail space is. We know because the case shaped economy in the U.S. the U.S. consumer is getting squeezed. They're seeing their wealth get hurt both by inflation and the rising unemployment problem which means that you're seeing those favorite names the retail space sell down. That sees crypto get hurt most sensitively. We're also seeing some of the big and most favorite names in the tech space as well which is why you've got that correlation there. Now we don't think as a
00:59group we don't think that the AI bubble which definitely exists is bursting just yet. We think this is just a little bit of a stumble but we do think that stumble probably continues in terms of rotation that we saw last week to continue over this week and the coming weeks in a choppy kind of regime because of Nvidia because the return of macro data. But we think there'll be a continued rotation away from some of those favorite tech names into slightly broader kind of stock market. Mark I'm always the one to think the Fed has a lot to blame when it comes to this recent move in the
01:29equity market. We've had a round of hawkish Fed speak that obviously hawkish Fed decision a few weeks ago. How much do you tie the monetary policy story into what we're seeing in these tech stocks today.
01:41So I think there's two aspects there. There's one is that the Fed rate cut bets and they've been paired back a bit. I think that's pretty marginal. You know they've only been they've been paired from we're expecting December to rate cut to now it's a coin toss whether we get one
01:54in December. I don't know that's been the big driver. I do think it's something you've been watching closely Valerie is that is the funding has been another kind of negative.
02:02I think that has impacted as well. But I think it's been a bit more of a it's a genuine story but a marginal story that kind of feeds the narrative here.
02:09It's a little bit alarming that we had such funding concerns at the end of October rather at the end of the quarter at the end of the year. So I think the monetary policy
02:16story plays into that. And the problem is I think U.S. yields on the long end continue to go higher here as we continue to ratchet up fiscal concerns.
02:24And that will continue to weigh on the on the stock story. But ultimately AI can probably power through this again and will do at some point in the future.
02:34Mark we have a very enthusiastic viewer following your every word. He's asking very specifically I'm assuming it's a he asking about your take on gold.
02:41Walk us through the dynamics you've laid out with Bitcoin with tech with the Fed story and its impact on the precious metal.
02:47So I think gold continues to outperform Bitcoin. That's been a theme we've seen this year and I think that's a theme we'll continue to see for the coming months.
02:57They're both anti fiat plays to some extent. They're both worried about the world's fiscal concerns and the fact that the only way governments have out of this over the long haul is to inflate away their debt is to monetize their debt.
03:08So I expect that to happen. But I think that's a very long term structural story. Importantly people who use gold as a diversifier remember that when markets reach their max point of panic we will see a massive liquidation event in gold as well.
03:21It'll probably outperform until then. It'll probably bounce back quickly. But gold will suffer really badly when we get the bubble bursting in AI.
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