00:00China held a massive military parade featuring all sorts of new weaponry now in the hands of the People's Liberation Army.
00:07Sure, it was a flashy event, but was it enough to keep members of the U.S. intelligence community up at night?
00:14I talked to one to find out.
00:18All right, I'm joined now by John Mollick.
00:20You are a war and intelligence officer in the United States military.
00:24First question I have for you, John.
00:26Initial impressions from the Chinese military parade.
00:30Well, I would say it's this year is just as good as any other year in terms of them putting on a show.
00:37I think they did a great job with that.
00:39If you spend the amount of time and resources that the CCP does to showcase to the world, really the world is really secondary.
00:49It's their own people first and then their neighbors second and then kind of the world as a third.
00:55But if they're going to put all that time and resources in that, then listen, they put on a great show.
00:58And it looks good and everyone can march in step and they look very professional.
01:04And, you know, kudos to them if that's the goal.
01:08You know, certainly the comparison would be and the popular comparison would be, well, the United States Army just put out a parade a few months ago down in D.C.
01:15And holy cow, there's this one picture of one soldier with a drone.
01:19And, you know, if you compare that to the Chinese display, then holy cow, the Chinese would win a war.
01:24You know, I hate to sound like I'm mocking because really, really I'm not.
01:28It was a very professional display.
01:31But again, at the end of the day, it's a display and it's the ability to use that equipment, that equipment to operate efficiently as it was designed, based on whatever capabilities and technologies the Chinese are pretending to have or do have, depending on the system, is really what matters at the end of the day.
01:50So it's great that it looks pretty, but it looks pretty.
01:56Right, right.
01:57Yeah.
01:57And to your point, you know, the Chinese, the modern Chinese military hasn't really been in a conflict to be battle tested and improve these systems in combat.
02:07But to your point, John, you said there is it was it was a display.
02:11It seemed like there was three kind of categories of items that got more attention than others.
02:18Just kind of want to go through these things and pepper you for some questions on it.
02:23The first category was kind of the Chinese nuclear triad.
02:26We saw some new ICBMs that were claimed to be capable of hitting continental United States.
02:32There are some new submarines that were displayed and some new some new jets, along with nuclear capable missiles.
02:42So obviously, you know, the Chinese military is trying to present their nuclear triad as powerful.
02:47They don't have as many warheads as the U.S. and as Russia does.
02:51They're building that capacity up.
02:53What was your thoughts on the on the Chinese nuclear triad?
02:56Yeah. So the the other half of the coin, the other side of the coin from what we were talking about earlier in terms of a display, you know, we have to give our respect, if you will.
03:07We have to we have to note that the Chinese really are putting time, effort and energy on top of their their display to their to the equipment that is important.
03:18Let's say, you know, they are trying to mirror the United States and some of the other countries like Russia and the more powerful militaries in the world, Britain, Australia and others.
03:28And in investing in the equipment that really is going to matter and matter for their strategic purposes.
03:33So if you want to be a regional power that wants to be left alone, which is ultimately the CCP's goal, left alone in the eastern hemisphere, the first and second island chain, then you want to be able to have a nuclear triad.
03:45And if you can have that capability, then great that you can match the United States and Russia.
03:50And when I say match, I mean, at least from strategic purpose, I don't mean necessarily their ultimate capability or, as you mentioned, the number of warheads.
03:57So, yes, it is a it is a very different perspective when a country has the ability to conduct a potential nuclear attack against the United States homeland from air, sea or or land based.
04:12Then, yeah, then that that's that's a problem that the United States would rather not deal with as opposed to dealing with it.
04:18So they're upgrading those weapon systems.
04:21They're trying to increase the the ultimate range of their ICBMs.
04:26So it's it's it's good on them to do that.
04:28And, you know, again, from that from their perspective.
04:30And so, yes, and it's something that we should pay attention to their under underwater vehicles that you as you had mentioned.
04:36There's this this one thirty five foot, I believe, or, you know, underground or underwater rather uncrewed drone, they call it.
04:45And yeah, that that that's an advancement in particular.
04:49If you notice in that piece of equipment, there wasn't any fins at all.
04:52There weren't any fins at all.
04:54So they're trying to reduce their acoustic signature.
04:56That's really how you are able to identify submarines and other vessels like that underwater is is based on the acoustic signature.
05:02There's other technologies, too.
05:03But but nonetheless.
05:04So so they're making advancements in that.
05:07Sure.
05:08Yeah.
05:08Some of the other categories that I saw were the you mentioned the unmanned systems.
05:12They had, you know, helicopters, fixed wing assets, obviously the unmanned underwater assets.
05:18And then also there was a heavy display of missiles right to to back up the Chinese strategy of the anti-access area denial, which is the Chinese strategy to keep the U.S. at bay.
05:32And to that end, John, was there anything that you saw that kind of kept you up?
05:38Is there anything that you saw that, you know, maybe isn't getting the attention or wasn't getting the attention it deserves?
05:45But you saw it and you're like, man, the U.S. really needs to pay attention to this.
05:49Yeah, I would say no.
05:50And only because the United States has put a lot of focus on on determining what exactly China is building.
05:58We've been doing it for a few decades now.
06:00This isn't anything that's new to us or any of our allies.
06:03And there wasn't any particular piece of equipment we didn't know about or some technology that they released that we thought was like, oh, man, we didn't know that they had that now that they prove that they've had that.
06:14That's just not the case.
06:14The IC is pretty good at what they do.
06:17Well, that's good to hear as an American citizen.
06:21The last question I had for you, John, and we kind of talked about this at the beginning.
06:25Obviously, the message of of the parade itself is one of deterrence.
06:30You know, China is saying, hey, America, back off.
06:35But they also welcomed in the leaders of let's call it Team Hate America.
06:41You have leaders of Russia, North Korea, Iran, about two dozen other countries there.
06:46What kind of message does that send to the United States, Chinese neighbors, rest of the world to have so many adversarial administrations to the United States all gathered in one place?
06:58That's that's it's messaging and it's it's effective messaging.
07:02And so and there's multiple layers to this stuff.
07:05There's a political message.
07:06There's a strategic message.
07:07There's a tactical military message.
07:09It's all combined into this big thing.
07:10It's all a showcase.
07:11And I would say that really the the relationship between those you could say potential adversaries of the United States coming together and shaking hands and being all lovey that that is important.
07:23It really is, you know, the fact that North Korean soldiers are fighting in Ukraine and in North Korea is gathering a bunch of information on what drone and counter drone warfare is like into today right now in the trenches.
07:35And then sharing that information with with the Chinese sharing that information with the Russians and then demonstrating that over dinner and shaking hands.
07:43Yeah, it sends a message to the United States that you're not the only world superpower.
07:48And if we have enough friends, then, you know, we could be formidable in our own right.
07:52Again, everything needs to be kept into perspective.
07:55If you gather those the GDPs of those countries that are together, if you take out China, it's quite literally nothing right that the Russian the Russian economy is the size of Texas.
08:06So, yeah, there's perspective everywhere, but used to be the size of Texas.
08:10I don't know if it's still is sure.
08:12Yeah, sure, sure.
08:13Good point.
08:13Good point.
08:15No, nonetheless.
08:16I mean, again, from a strategic messaging standpoint, if you want to get under the skin of any POTUS,
08:21regardless of if it's this one or not, and to and to showcase solidarity, then then, yeah, you do that.
08:27And it's it's something we pay attention to.
08:28And we add it to the calculus when we're doing our discussions with the State Department.
08:32And what does this ultimately mean?
08:34Is the relationship really real?
08:36You know, what's the depth to that relationship?
08:39It's one thing to invite Kim Jong Un and his train to come down and hang out and have dinner.
08:44But what does that what does it mean behind the scenes?
08:48What are they really talking about at dinner?
08:50Is is Russia just saying this and bringing him in to say, yeah, this is going to be a great show.
08:54But, you know, I'm never really going to do anything Kim Jong Un at the end of the day.
08:58So we'll see.
08:59But sure, it certainly sends a message.
09:03All right, sir.
09:05John, really appreciate your time, as always.
09:08Look forward to talking to you again down the road.
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