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00:00Welcome, basketball fans, to a new season of thrilling action and heated debates.
00:05As we gear up for the basketball season, let's engage in a brief exercise to stimulate our
00:10thoughts about the game. Here are three prompts designed to spark excitement for the upcoming
00:14season, starting with a focus on the local basketball team. What is your assessment of
00:20the current situation in the Western Conference? If the Suns manage to surprise us, do they stand
00:26a chance of securing a spot in the playoffs? Kellen Olsen. I believe the competition is
00:33more intense than ever before, presenting a challenging scenario. However, I will entertain
00:39the idea that there is a possibility for the Suns, while emphasizing that I don't actually expect this
00:44to occur. By the end of the season it's likely that one or two teams that were anticipated to be in the
00:50top 10 will face significant injury issues, and another team may experience an unexpected downturn.
00:56This is a common occurrence. Memphis is a team I previously considered a strong candidate for a
01:00top 8 position, but they are currently dealing with the absence of Brandon Clark, Zach Eady,
01:06Ty Jerome, and Scotty Pippen Jr. for extended periods. They have struggled to even reach the
01:11regular season is about to begin, and before the usual discussions start, let's analyze the teams
01:16that are likely to perform well. When considering the teams that are almost guaranteed to succeed,
01:21the Thunder, Rockets, Nuggets, Clippers, and Timberwolves stand out. These teams possess
01:27significant talent and have proven track records that suggest they won't plummet in the standings,
01:32barring any major injuries to their star players. That gives us five teams. Beyond these, there are
01:38other teams that could potentially struggle, leading to a scenario where they hover around a 500 record in
01:44the worst-case situations. The Warriors face challenges with their depth and are heavily
01:49reliant on a trio of players who are all in their mid-to-late 30s. The Lakers, while having potential,
01:56are hindered by the injury-prone nature of many of their supporting players and those who are healthy
02:01often lack consistency. The Mavericks are already dealing with the absence of Kyrie Irving for a
02:06significant portion of the season, and Anthony Davis has averaged only 52 games played per season over
02:12the last five years. Then there are the teams that could emerge as unexpected contenders. Will the
02:17Spurs need an entire season to sort out their backcourt? Is the situation dynamic, or does it
02:23even matter if Victor Wembenyama is poised to take control? The Portland Trailblazers possess many
02:29positive attributes, including their style of play, culture, and depth, yet they lack a clear superstar.
02:35The New Orleans Pelicans could also be considered if there were confidence in Zion Williamson's ability
02:40to participate in 70 games. We have already discussed the Memphis Grizzlies, and it seems
02:45unlikely that the Sacramento Kings will have a successful season despite their talented roster.
02:49As I mentioned, it's easy to convince oneself of various outcomes. My uncertainty stems more from
02:55the possibility of the Phoenix Suns finding themselves in contention for the play-in tournament
02:59rather than doubting that the play-in spot is within reach. Kevin Zimmerman, let's take a moment to
03:04assess the situation. The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets are my top picks to win the
03:10Western Conference. Beyond that, there is a mix of teams that range from aiming for a top-two finish
03:16to struggling and potentially vying for a play-in spot. This group includes the Houston Rockets,
03:21Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves, San Antonio Spurs, and Golden State
03:28Warriors. The positive aspect is that we are only—there are currently eight teams—in contention.
03:34I believe that the Mavericks and Grizzlies have the potential to break into the upper echelon
03:39and secure spots in the play-in tournament. However, the Suns, Blazers, Pelicans, and Kings
03:46could also find their way in if any of the teams ranked above them experience injuries or a decline
03:51in performance. Several teams appear to be at risk for various reasons. The Warriors are aging and could
03:56struggle significantly if Steph Curry were to get injured. The Timberwolves may have reached their peak
04:01performance. The Clippers are also an older team, while the Lakers have an uncertain supporting
04:06cast. The Mavericks are dealing with injury concerns, and the Grizzlies have faced issues
04:10related to inappropriate social media activity. In a reasonable scenario, it seems plausible that
04:16there could be two available play-in spots up for grabs. However, there are numerous teams competing
04:21at a similar level to the Suns, with the Kings and Pelicans boasting stronger talent on paper.
04:26I estimate there is a 30% chance that the Suns could approach 40 wins, but for them to make the
04:31playoffs, everything would need to align perfectly. Therefore, I would place their playoff odds at around
04:3710%. Now please share three teams that you find most interesting this season.
04:42Kellen Olsen, I have already shared my thoughts. I have focused enough on the Western Conference,
04:47so now I'm turning my attention to the Eastern Conference. Orlando stands out as a strong contender.
04:52Their roster is capable of reaching the conference finals, and their success largely depends on the
04:58development of Paolo Banqueiro and Franz Wagner. Once the Magic are fully healthy, they can make a
05:04strong argument for having the best supporting cast around their stars in the league. Jalen Suggs is a
05:10fierce competitor, and Desmond Bain is also among the top players in this regard. They have solid wing
05:15depth with Jonathan Isaac and a promising second-year player in Tristan da Silva, who gained valuable
05:21experience due to injuries. Their three-man center rotation is highly reliable when healthy, and Tyus
05:26Jones is dependable as long as he's not caught in chaotic situations. Anthony Black is a potential
05:31breakout player in his third year, and rookie Jace Richardson fits in well with the team.
05:39Either the Magic or the Atlanta Hawks could pose significant challenges to the more established teams
05:44like the Cavaliers and Knicks. If you didn't catch Jalen Johnson's performance with the Hawks last season,
05:50you might be surprised by how talented he is. There is a possibility that he could be selected as an
05:55All-Star this season. I was particularly impressed with the signing of Nikhil Alexander-Walker, as he
06:00serves as an ideal third guard to complement either Trae Young or Dyson Daniels. We will have to monitor
06:08Kristaps Porzingis' durability, but when he is healthy, he remains a formidable player. If he were to be
06:14sidelined, it would provide an opportunity to fully utilize Onyeka Okongwu, who is regarded as one of
06:20the top backup big men in the NBA, along with the dynamic rookie Asa Newell. Additionally, Zachary
06:26Rissacher, who was the first overall pick last year, has shown great promise. While the rotation may be
06:33somewhat top-heavy with the first seven or eight players, I have a strong appreciation for that group.
06:38On the other hand, can we be certain that the Milwaukee Bucks won't struggle this season?
06:44I understand the presence of Giannis, but the supporting cast around him has the potential
06:50for significant issues. I can identify five players in this rotation who are known for taking risky
06:57shots. These include Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Cole Anthony, Kyle Kuzma, and Bobby Portis,
07:04all of whom can contribute to the offense, but the overall performance may lean more towards being
07:09unattractive rather than appealing. I'm a big fan on Shriner Ovidubos and Miles Turner,
07:16who has consistently played over 70 games in consecutive seasons. After averaging a score in
07:22the 50s over the last four seasons, any significant absence could have serious implications. The prevailing
07:28theory is that Giannis plus shooting equals 45 wins, which is a bold statement that doesn't quite
07:33resonate with the style of Don Draper. Kevin Zimmerman. To narrow down my selections I am
07:39categorizing them into three groups. A title contender, a team on the rise, and a team that
07:44may be in danger of a decline. Editor's note, this approach nearly led me to choose the same teams as
07:50Kellen. My choice for a title contender is quite obvious. The Denver Nuggets have made a strategic move
07:56by parting ways with Michael Porter Jr., and bringing in a familiar player from Phoenix,
08:01the consistently dependable Cam Johnson. Johnson is expected to excel defensively,
08:06and has the offensive skills necessary to alleviate pressure on Aaron Gordon while effectively spacing
08:12the floor, similar to what MPJ provided. The team's depth has been restored through careful management,
08:18with Bruce Brown remaining on the roster, and Tim Hardaway Jr. joining a perimeter group that
08:24includes Christian Braun, Jalen Pickett, and Julian Strother. The frontcourt rotation is bolstered by
08:30defensive specialist Peyton Watson, along with Joe. Jonas Valanciunas, and second-year player
08:39Darren Holmes, who faced injuries that hindered his rookie season, are key figures in their respective
08:45teams. I considered selecting the Portland Trailblazers as my team on the rise because they have
08:50established a clear identity and have quietly nurtured two candidates for the Most Improved Player
08:55Award in Denny Avdija and Tumani Kamara. However, it is the Atlanta Hawks whose future could significantly
09:01impact the NBA landscape, depending on how their season unfolds. If Johnson returns to full health,
09:07he is poised to be a star. Daniels had a breakout season last year, and the addition of Alexander Walker
09:13addresses concerns about depth. Johnson will be supported by a frontcourt that includes Porzingis,
09:18Okongwu, and the 2024 No. 1 pick, Rissacher. This combination should create an exciting team
09:24dynamic. If things don't go well, they might consider trading young. When discussing teams
09:32that might be at risk of a significant decline, one could point to the Clippers or Warriors,
09:38but I believe their excellent coaching staff can help them navigate through any misfortunes.
09:42The same goes for the Mavericks, especially with the addition of Cooper Flagg. In my view,
09:47the Lakers seem rather unexciting and are more focused on future prospects even if they—the
09:51situation surrounding the Dallas Mavericks with Luka Doncic and LeBron James seems less than
09:57promising due to a lackluster supporting cast. In contrast, when examining the Milwaukee Bucks,
10:02a quick glance at their roster might lead one to envision a future where there are two players
10:07named Antetokounmpo by the end of the season, neither of whom would be Giannis. In a recent season
10:13preview by ESPN, reporter Jamal Collier made a bold prediction, stating that Ryan Rollins would
10:18emerge as the best guard for the Bucks, which does not bode well for the team's prospects.
10:25It seems likely that by February, Giannis may find himself in New York, perhaps learning the art of
10:31bagel-making. Now, let's discuss some intriguing players in the league. Kellen Olsen highlights three
10:37players who raise the question of their true potential—Paulo Banchero from Orlando, Johnson
10:42from Atlanta, and Lamello Ball from Charlotte. Olsen has previously covered the first two players,
10:48while Ball is entering his fifth year in the league, during which the Hornets have only managed
10:52to win a total of 67 games over the past three seasons. Additionally, Olsen mentions another trio of
10:59players from the Houston Rockets, consisting of Tari Eason and Reed Shepard, who also fit this category
11:04of players with uncertain potential. Amen Thompson and his twin brother Eason, known as the Terror
11:10Twins, are an exciting duo. I believe they have the potential to dominate the league this season,
11:15creating an ideal partnership that complements Kevin Durant, much like Robin does to Batman.
11:20If Shepard is prepared to play around 25 minutes each game, he could help maintain the Rockets' hopes
11:26for a championship. Continuing with my theme of threes, I want to highlight my top three playmakers on
11:31contending teams this year—Lonzo Ball from Cleveland, Johnson from Denver, and Chris Paul
11:36from Los Angeles. It feels like the basketball gods have let us down by only allowing Ball to be part
11:42of a strong team once while he was healthy, and that was only for half a season in Chicago.
11:47Watching him play will be a joy, and I sincerely hope he stays injury-free. As for Johnson, we already
11:53know how smoothly he fits into Denver's system. Meanwhile, Paul orchestrating ball screens with players
11:58like Ivica Zubak, John Collins, and Brooke Lopez during late-night games on league pass will be a
12:03delightful way to unwind before bed. Among all the teams, I have the highest expectations for
12:08Portland compared to the consensus. I have the opportunity to select from several promising
12:13young players who could significantly impact the season. I would choose Donovan Klingin, who has shown
12:18considerable improvement as a center, and Shaden Sharp, who is poised for a standout offensive season,
12:23particularly with Scoot Henderson out at the start of the year. While Minnesota may face some
12:27challenges, it has the potential to evolve into a genuine championship contender if its 2024 draft
12:33picks, Rob Dillingham and Terence Shannon Jr., can make a meaningful impact in their new roles.
12:39In the Eastern Conference, two teams that share a similar outlook and could be exciting to watch
12:44are the Celtics, especially if Anfernee Simons performs exceptionally well, and the Bulls, where second-year
12:50player Matas Buzelas has the opportunity to showcase his star potential. Additionally, there is curiosity
12:56surrounding Nikola Topic's playing time with Oklahoma City, as his situation is intriguing.
13:01Finally, let's talk about some rookies. I have identified five players from this draft class whom
13:06I already appreciated, and my enthusiasm has only grown due to their fit on their teams and the
13:11early injuries that have opened up opportunities for them. Cedric Coward is expected to make an
13:16immediate impact for Memphis, while Kasparis Jakucionis, the point guard for the Heat, will have the
13:21opportunity to take on ball-handling duties due to Tyler Harrow's absence for an extended period.
13:27The Philadelphia 76ers are likely to face a series of injuries, which could create a favorable
13:32environment for Vijay Edgecombe to excel. Nik Clifford appears ready to contribute significantly
13:37as a wing player in Sacramento, and Carter Bryant, a wing for the Spurs, fits the profile of the type of
13:44player they have been lacking for several years. Kevin Zimmerman points out that Jordan Clarkson and
13:50Gershon Yubasele have joined the Knicks, who now have an offensive-minded head coach in Mike Brown,
13:55potentially enhancing the team's performance. The rotation for the Thunder remains uncertain,
14:00but it is likely that either Topic or A.J. Mitchell will emerge this season, surprising other teams
14:05and prompting them to question how Oklahoma City managed to draft them in recent years.
14:10Alternatively, it could be one of four other players, whose skills I am not yet familiar with.
14:14In San Antonio, the young trio of players is poised to make a significant impact.
14:21Castle, Dylan Harper, and Bryant have a solid foundation that can develop alongside Wemby and
14:26De'Aaron Fox. The Celtics face significant financial challenges during a year of rebuilding,
14:32especially with Jason Tatum sidelined due to injury. With Porzingis no longer on the team,
14:37there is potential for some unconventional and exciting post players like Chris Boucher,
14:42and Luka Garza to seize opportunities to score in their unique styles. This is my hope based on
14:48the preseason lineups. Many have overlooked Brandon Ingram, who is quite talented and could
14:53make the Raptors unexpectedly competitive. I believe the Blazers will be enjoyable to watch
14:58again, primarily due to their young forwards. Avdija has shown potential to become a versatile
15:03scorer and playmaker, similar to Franz Wagner. Additionally, Drew Holiday has joined the team.
15:09He is one of the most underrated players in basketball and should contribute significantly
15:14to their improvement. The Lakers will serve as an intriguing case study, particularly in observing
15:19how J.J. Redick copes with the presence of DeAndre Ayton, Doncic, James, and Austin Reeves.
15:23So which teams and players are you most excited to watch this season?
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