Analysis: How the US Will React to the New KMT Chair

TaiwanPlus News

Newly elected Kuomintang leader Cheng Li-wun has expressed willingness to cooperate with China. To find out how the US is reacting to Cheng's election at a time of heightened competition between Washington and Beijing, TaiwanPlus spoke with Kharis Templeman, research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institute.

Transcript

00:00Now, what are U.S. policymakers watching for after Zheng Liwen's win?

00:04Zheng Liwen herself has said she doesn't support increasing defense spending above

00:09three percent of GDP. That's a very kind of concrete thing that Washington has been pushing

00:14on Taiwan. And so I'll be watching closely to see what the KMT legislative caucus's position is on

00:23special budgets to purchase weapons from the United States or to fund a significant increase

00:31in defense modernization. The KMT rightfully in Washington has a reputation as being the party

00:39that can talk to Beijing and so they'll be interested in seeing where her communication

00:46with the other side of the strait goes. And then third actually is on trade and more generally

00:56the economic relationship. A lot of KMT, high-level KMT people have been quite critical of the lie

01:03administration's trade negotiations with the United States and to some degree their willingness to

01:10talk about investments in the semiconductor industry in the United States. Now, even though the KMT

01:16is an opposition party, will Zheng's win affect the U.S.'s decision making towards Taiwan at all?

01:22In the short run, I don't think so, no. The more interesting question is what happens in about a

01:29year when we have the local elections and the impact of those elections on perceptions of who's going to

01:37win in 2028. I know there's a narrative in Taiwan right now that's actually quite pessimistic about

01:44Li Qingda's, President Li Qingda's chances in 2028 for re-election. I don't think that narrative is

01:51quite as widespread in Washington, but if the KMT sweeps all the competitive races in 2026,

01:58that would get a lot of people's attention and I think focus a lot of people much more on

02:04what a potential KMT successor to Li Qingda would look like.

02:08What kinds of challenges will Zheng face moving forward?

02:11Well, I think first, she's got to strike a balance in her rhetoric about cross-strait relations.

02:20This is the challenge that every KMT party chair has struggled with. Second, the KMT looks like they're

02:27probably the favorites in a lot of the races in 2026, but only if they can strike some kind of

02:32cooperation agreement with the TPP. And as we all know, the attempt to run a joint campaign in the

02:432024 presidential election fell apart. And so the chair's number one prerogative, I think, for the

02:50next year is to prevent that kind of breakdown from happening again in blue-white cooperation.

02:57And then third, she has to continue to try to build the KMT's or rehabilitate the KMT's image

03:09among younger swing voters. I think that's really the critical group that could swing back to the DPP in 2028.

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