'Ultimate form of government would allow for participation of as broad a swath of Syrian population'

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00:00Let's begin in Syria, 12 days since a revolution and the toppling of the Assad regime that

00:16began with a lightning offensive 12 days before that.

00:20The new de facto leaders of the country, HTS, have been meeting with US officials today.

00:26The group leader, Ahmed al-Sharar, formerly Abu Mohammed al-Jalani, appears to be hosting

00:30an open-door policy to foreign leaders right now as international governments that had

00:35labelled them as terrorists decide whether to lift sanctions and lift the label.

00:40With it, a decision needs to be made too by the Americans, or perhaps it's a technicality

00:44now that they are in Damascus, but on lifting the $10 million reward for the arrest of Mr.

00:49al-Sharar.

00:50Well, joining me in the studio is William Jordan, former US retired diplomat who's previously

00:55served in the Middle East and in North Africa, including in the Middle East in Syria.

01:00Great to have you on the programme this evening.

01:02Also with us, Doug Herbert, our International Affairs Editor.

01:06As we've seen for the last 11 days, there is a lot to discuss.

01:09William, starting with you, talk us through what you think American expectations are from

01:14this meeting.

01:15I think right now it's mostly a kind of a getting-to-know-you sort of conversation.

01:21There had apparently been some preliminary contacts, and it's not even clear where they

01:26took place immediately following the fall of Damascus to the rebels.

01:33But this is more, I think, focused on the concrete realities, kind of like what the

01:38French did a few days ago, of figuring out whether the situation in Damascus in particular

01:44would warrant the return of US diplomats to go back to the embassy there and to restart

01:52the process of diplomatic relations with Syria, which had been broken since 2012.

01:58So I think that's the first order of business.

02:00The second order of business is to sort of run through a list of things that I hope is

02:04not going to be too binding or be perceived by the folks in Damascus as starting a list

02:09of requirements from the US.

02:12But I do think that given the HTS background and leadership, that the US needs to put some

02:20markers on the table as far as their previous or possibly current jihadist credentials,

02:26and to try to get some sense of where the new leadership wants to take Syria in the

02:32reconciliation, we hope, process, as well as the restoration of some new kind of government

02:39or the establishment of some sort of new government in Syria.

02:43To that end, the idea of an establishment of some sort of government in Syria, the information

02:48we're getting from AP agency in the last half an hour or so suggests, well, the officials

02:55quoted suggesting that they want to see, quote, a transitional government that works, quote,

02:59for democracy, and they've talked about ISIS, which you also rage.

03:03Can we link the two together, given that 24 hours previously, we're only just finding

03:06out about events that the Americans appear to have taken out two senior IS leaders there?

03:12Well, you know, I think on the first part of that, in terms of what kind of, or what

03:19the hopes, and I stress the hopes, the US would see framing the process of creating

03:27a new government in Syria, that we're not using words like democracy, that we're probably

03:32I hope we're using words like good governance and representation, so that we're not trying

03:37to impose a sort of a Western framework on Syria.

03:41But I think that the idea of underscoring what we would not want to see in Syria is

03:49a sort of fundamentalist Islamist regime that would be making life difficult for women,

03:58that would be imposing Sharia law, even on non-Muslim communities, and that the ultimate

04:09form of government would be something that would allow for the participation of as broad

04:14a swath of the Syrian population to approve whenever it's finally ready, as well as hoping

04:23that there is a measure of rule of law, and that what we have seen is the miraculous sort

04:28of calm in Syria continues while all of this plays out.

04:32As far as the IS element of it is concerned, I think there's no question that what has

04:40just happened, and what continues to happen, and what will continue to happen, certainly

04:44as long as US troops are in Syria, is in terms of the ongoing anti-Islamic State military

04:52operations by the US and others.

04:57We need to talk to the new leadership.

04:59We need to find out, in fact, if they are something other than, how they are as far

05:09as being reformed jihadists, and whether there remain any sympathies to the Islamic State.

05:15So that will probably be one of the most serious conversations that I think the group in Damascus

05:21will be having, in part because that will set the stage for however things might ultimately

05:26play out between Kurds and this new government in Damascus in terms of the northeastern part

05:33of the country.

05:34And I return always to the point that one of the primary American concerns will be the

05:39fate of the thousands of detainees being held by the Kurds up in that area, who we will

05:45not want to see, whatever the sympathies of the current government of Damascus sort of

05:50released into the wild.

05:52And we're talking about, Doug, something like 10,000 ISIS prisoners in the northeast.

05:57Also interesting, Doug, what William just said there, US advising, don't use terms like

06:02democracy just now, and for Ahmed al-Sharar, kind of talk us through a flip reverse, not

06:10what the Americans perhaps want from this, but what you think the Syrian de facto leaders

06:15are now probably looking for from the Americans.

06:18Well, they're trying to get as much as they can.

06:20They're right now in the paramount position.

06:22Obviously this thing is still playing out.

06:24We don't know how things are going to end up ultimately.

06:27For now, they are the go-to interlocutors.

06:30They're the ones who seem to be calling the shots.

06:32But like you said, there's a lot of different factions and skirmishes and different geopolitical

06:37delicate maneuverings going on among various powers, some more dominant, some less dominant,

06:42some winners in the region, some losers in the region.

06:45It is still very much a geopolitical game of, you know, pickup sticks.

06:49And yes, HTS right now obviously sees itself as the group everyone wants to speak to, right?

06:55It's not just the Americans showing up.

06:57Sure, they haven't been there in a little over a decade formally in this capacity of

07:00diplomatic delegation, but we've had everyone trying to open channels of communication with

07:04them, it seems.

07:05The French have reached out.

07:06The Germans have been reaching out.

07:08The UN has sent emissaries.

07:10The Russians, who are perceived as being on the losing end of this equation, even if Putin

07:14didn't acknowledge it as such yesterday.

07:17Iran also, all of them now making noises in favor of trying to talk to these people,

07:22no matter what they may actually think of them in private.

07:25This perceived necessity.

07:27This is the group, for better or for worse, that you have to speak to.

07:29We even heard the head of the International Labor Organization today, an American as well,

07:34basically saying the sanctions, you know, saying the international community, put aside

07:38your personal feelings and your ideological stance with regard to this group that is now

07:44meeting with the delegation.

07:47The tension should be lifted for the good of Syria and Syria's stability going forward.

07:51So yeah, very much.

07:53There's an effort and it seems, yeah, a very deliberate effort not to sort of put your

07:57thumb on the scale by using these sort of loaded terms.

08:01Democracy could be considered one of them, a loaded term.

08:05And to speak in terms more of inclusivity, moderation.

08:09I will note that this group, the delegation we were just speaking about, wasn't just meeting

08:13with HTS, right?

08:14They also had on their agenda meetings, reach out sessions with civic society, members of

08:20civic society, members of minority group.

08:22Remember, it's a patchwork mosaic Syria, many different communities there.

08:26And also representatives, women's rights representatives, females representatives.

08:31So there's been a lot of different sort of, you know, shuttle diplomacy going on.

08:35Obviously, the meetings with this HTS group are, you know, top of the agenda, perhaps

08:40the most important in their inbox in this mission.

08:43But it doesn't mean to say that the very fact they're trying to reach out and meet

08:46with all these other groups isn't in and of itself sending the message, a very strong

08:50message as to what America would like to see as this situation continues to unfold.

08:57Given what Doug just said, William, in your experience of things going wrong in Libya

09:02and of things in Syria, knowing the ground there, when you look at what, 12 days ago,

09:07we were seeing this group literally on the road to Damascus.

09:10Now we're seeing the leader who appears over the years to have this Damascene conversion

09:13from being in prison at one point with al-Baghdadi, former ISIS leader, to becoming more moderate.

09:21We saw him, we just saw an image a moment ago where he was sitting down for this one

09:24big BBC interview with Jeremy Boehme, one of my former colleagues, where he talked about

09:28rights for minorities.

09:29He was asked the question, wasn't he, as well, what about alcohol?

09:31To which he said, that's not for me to answer, kind of said that's for the others.

09:36So my question to you is, are you hopeful that we are seeing signs of a path towards

09:42a workable government internationally?

09:47I'm always cautious about either expressing optimism or hope anymore when it comes to

09:52the region.

09:53But yeah, I mean, I think that he's saying all the right things.

09:56And let's remember, the world has a long history of once radical rebel leaders taking

10:06over governments and having to basically moderate or deal with the realities of governance.

10:14So far, as I said, I think I said earlier, you know, things seem calm, I mean, almost

10:19remarkably calm.

10:21What I worry about is either the one big horrible event, and you mentioned Libya, I think here

10:27I'm probably more inclined to use the Iraq analogy after 2003, the American invasion,

10:35where one horrendously violent thing could happen, such as then the bombing of the UN

10:44headquarters, or, you know, just sort of a series of things that we're beginning to hear

10:52about from international media that are now fanning out in Syria, and are finally revealing,

11:00you know, minor cases of revenge killings and actions taken against people who are considered

11:07to be close to the regime.

11:09If that becomes a pattern, right now it's very sporadic and it seems to be very limited

11:13and it seems as though the folks under HTS's guidance, I won't say they're under HTS's

11:19authority, have been trying to keep them under control.

11:23As long as it continues the way that it is, yeah, I mean, I think there's a reason to

11:28be hopeful.

11:30I don't know, because we know very little about this man.

11:36We don't know where Ahmed Ashara actually comes out in terms of wanting to deal with

11:43countries like the United States that imprisoned him at Camp Bucca in Iraq for so long, or

11:50whether others around him are in full agreement.

11:54The actual configuration and makeup of this coalition that came to power is still extremely

12:02unknown.

12:03And in fact, one of the obvious questions that I have is the delegation in Damascus,

12:09the American delegation in Damascus, with whom are they meeting in the leadership?

12:14And how will those ongoing discussions and possible dialogue play out?

12:21Not Ahmed Ashara, they're not meeting with the top guy apparently, at least according

12:25to the initial reports.

12:26Well perhaps also, maybe we take away from optics matter there as well for who Ahmed

12:32Ashara is seen to meet.

12:33We'll just see what comes out as they continue to meet into the evening.

12:37Also mentioned as well, another aspect of this, Turkey.

12:40The Turkish foreign minister in the past few hours is speaking to France 24's Marc Perelman.

12:44Let's take a listen.

12:47Certainly, we are not in favor of any bases remaining in Syria.

12:53Not only the Russians, but any others.

12:56So they should leave.

12:57Well, I mean, it will be up to Syrian people.

12:59It will be up to Syrian people.

13:01And if they come to an understanding, a state decision, so we'll see it.

13:07But now, as we see it, the Russians now in the process of redeploying their units.

13:15And in the end of the process, we don't know how much of them will continue to stay in

13:19Syria in the bases.

13:22Very interesting on Russia there particularly.

13:24So the Turkish view is that they've been told to leave.

13:27Now what we saw, footage of this kind of orderly queue of Russian vehicles leaving tanks.

13:34However, there's been no obvious call from the government to Russia to publicly leave.

13:41That's key.

13:42In fact, just the opposite.

13:43For now, the indications are that they are not going to, you know, touch those Russian

13:47bases.

13:48They're going to leave them there.

13:49But we do know that the ships themselves, the Russian ships that have been at the naval

13:52base at Tartus, are now anchored offshore.

13:55So they're not actually in the port themselves.

13:57They've sort of taken their distance.

13:58You spoke about some of those convoys that have been, you know, seen in satellite images

14:03moving in various directions.

14:04There have been reports.

14:05Some have been going to Libya, you know, to sort of re-hub and set up a new sort of transit

14:10hub for also Russian interests in the Sahel region of Africa, i.e. the former stomping

14:18ground of Prigozhin's Wagner Group.

14:20But what's interesting here, just with the dynamic with Turkey and Russia, you know,

14:24the simplistic reductionist sort of take is that, you know, they've been adversaries in

14:28the region.

14:29They have this on-off love-hate relationship.

14:30We remember several years back when they had that giant falling out over the Turkey, shooting

14:36at a Russian jet fighter.

14:40And that led to months of sanctions and basically a meltdown in relations between Turkey and

14:44Russia.

14:45At the end of the day, if we look at it from circa end of 2024, the political relationship,

14:51yes, is always a little troublesome, but it's sort of trumped, excuse the pun, overridden

14:56by the economic relationship.

14:59And they do have very strong ties.

15:00Let's not, you know, forget whether we're talking about natural gas, whether we're talking

15:03about the fact that, you know, Russia's right now building Turkey's first nuclear plant

15:07in the south of the country.

15:08They have a lot of interwoven, intricate ties.

15:11And I think they're both sort of, in that sense, these are two leaders who, for all

15:14of their maybe adversarial relationship in the past, they also have a sort of admiration,

15:19respect for each other.

15:20They're not an admiration society for each other, but I think they understand each other

15:24and they understand how each in his own way is basically watching his own back.

15:28So I think in that sense, what we hear Turkey saying about Russia, I think that that relationship,

15:33at least economically, is going to remain relatively strong.

15:35I do think Turkey, for itself, is manoeuvring, obviously, to be the dominant player in the

15:40post-Assad Syria.

15:41We've heard it today with the statements.

15:42It wants to be really involved in building the state structures and even writing a new

15:46constitution for Syria, being right up there at the table.

15:50Very interesting.

15:51Doug, thank you.

15:52Doug Herbert, our intestinal affairs editor.

15:53William Jordan, as well, retired US diplomat, as I said, who'd spent a lot of time in the

15:57Middle East and North Africa.

15:58Thank you both.

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