Is France heading toward 'powder-keg situation'? PM to face 'significant political, social problems'

1 year ago

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00:00Let's come back to France now, where the president, Emmanuel Macron, is trying to

00:03break through months of deadlock to find a new French prime minister.

00:07France still has no permanent government, almost two months after the parliamentary

00:11election that ended up with no clear winner.

00:13Today, Macron is hosting two former French presidents, François Hollande from the left

00:18and Nicolas Sarkozy from the right.

00:20There are other meetings today with two potential candidates for prime minister, including Bernard

00:24Cazeneuve of the center-left and Xavier Bertrand of the center-right.

00:28We're going to talk about all of this now with my guest today, French politics expert

00:32Paul Smith from the University of Nottingham.

00:35Paul, thank you so much for joining us and breaking this all down for us.

00:39Just set the stage for our viewers first.

00:41Why has it taken it so long for France to get a new prime minister?

00:44What's the holdup?

00:45Well, the holdup is to do with finding somebody who could actually command some kind of stable

00:51majority in the National Assembly.

00:52As we all know, the elections took place back in June and July, and we've got no absolute

00:58majority in the National Assembly.

01:00And you've always got and therefore you've got a problem of anybody who's appointed putting

01:04a government together actually falling at the first hurdle through a motion of no confidence.

01:09You then throw into the mix Macron's own distaste for, say, a left wing bloc.

01:15And that makes it you know, that adds the number of obstacles to the to the process.

01:20Is there any precedent for this?

01:21Has France ever gone this long before without a prime minister?

01:24No, not certainly not in the Fifth Republic and even under the Fourth Republic, which

01:28was a much more fragmented and less presidential system.

01:32Even there, the record was something like a month, a little bit over a month for finding

01:36someone.

01:37But then it was always about a prime minister talking to parties and putting a government

01:43together and then going to talk to the president and that because it was not a presidential

01:47regime and putting a government together and then that getting voted in.

01:51But those would not last for very long.

01:53So there's kind of previous, but certainly not since 1958.

01:57So and the length even under the old Fourth Republic, we never saw anything anything like

02:02this long.

02:03Right.

02:04It does seem now that there is some forward movement, perhaps today, Macron's meeting

02:08two contenders.

02:10The one who seems to be leading the race, at least according to the French media so

02:13far, is a former prime minister himself.

02:15His name is Bernard Cazeneuve.

02:17What more can you tell us about him?

02:19And is he a shoo-in?

02:20No, he's absolutely not a shoo-in.

02:23What I can tell you is that he was interior minister, he was a minister under François

02:28Hollande when he was president.

02:30And of course, he was the last prime minister under Hollande.

02:35He was kind of in a sort of holding role while Manuel Valls campaigned in the left wing primary.

02:44So he's seen as being the left winger, but a very conservative with a small C member

02:53of the Socialist Party or of the of the left.

02:55So he would be seen as being, I suppose, a bridgehead towards the left, the very moderate

03:02left, if that exists.

03:04So he's the front runner.

03:06You mentioned Xavier Bertrand, but I've heard a couple of names doing the rounds this morning

03:10as well.

03:11David Linard, who is the mayor of Cannes.

03:13And also there's a fellow called Thierry Baudet, who's the president of the Economic, Social

03:19and Environmental Council.

03:20So this is this looks like it's by no means a done deal yet.

03:25So as you mentioned, Macron today is not just meeting with these contenders.

03:30He's also meeting with some former presidents, some of his predecessors, the socialist president

03:34François Hollande, who was president when Bernard Cazeneuve was prime minister.

03:39Also meeting with Nicolas Sarkozy, the conservative former president.

03:43I mean, is that a tradition to to meet for a current president, to meet with his predecessors,

03:48I guess, for advice?

03:49No, I don't think I don't think there's much of a precedent for it.

03:53I mean, they will they would be kind of unofficial talks and advice and, you know, asking for

04:01for for views.

04:03But inviting Hollande is very interesting.

04:05Hollande last week made it quite clear that in his view, if you're going to appoint someone

04:10from the left, it has to be somebody from that block, that left wing block.

04:15And that's Lucie Castille.

04:16There was actually a tweet by Marine Tendillier, leader of the Greens, who was very, very warm

04:23response to Hollande's solidarity, whereas the the the the invitation to Sarkozy, I think,

04:30is because Macron thinks that Sarkozy still has some kind of control over the right.

04:36Paul, whoever the prime minister is going to be, and again, no guarantee that it's going

04:40to happen today.

04:41What are the biggest challenges going to be ahead for that prime minister?

04:46Well, I mean, the biggest challenge is actually is actually presenting the budget is the first

04:50thing.

04:51The the budget has to be presented to the National Assembly at the beginning of October.

04:56The budget has to be thrashed out by the new government.

04:58So we're not just talking, of course, about a prime minister.

05:00We've got to find a finance minister.

05:02We've got to put the teams together to come up with that budget.

05:05France is facing huge levels of of public debt.

05:10Of course, we've also looking at huge opposition on the left to continuing with the implementation

05:17of the pensions reform problems in French schools.

05:20So there's a bit of a it's not a complete powder keg situation, but the government is

05:24facing any incoming government is going to be facing some really significant political

05:29and social problems, even within minutes of being appointed.

05:33All right, Paul, thank you for that.

05:35I'm sure we'll be checking back in with you at some point to talk more about that prime

05:38minister, whoever it ends up being.

05:40That's a French politics expert, Paul Smith, speaking to me there.

Is France heading toward 'powder-keg situation'? PM to face 'significant political, social problems'

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