00:00Scott, we start with Italian Soiree. She's a grade three winner, sprinting five and a half on the turf.
00:06She seemed a little overmatched at Kentucky Downs last time out.
00:09Overall, she's fine. She just feels like she's going to have to get a lot faster to compete with this group
00:15because there are horses that have been running much better speed figures than her.
00:19Yeah, I mean, we're taking a look at the Coronation Cup was where she won that race to bat.
00:23She got an absolutely dream run with the two favorites battling on the front end.
00:27I think Sammy Moran is going to have his work cut out for him to work out a similar trip against better.
00:32Always been a fan of Love Cerveri, Scott. I mean, you look very early on in her career at her second start.
00:37She almost beats Nitrogen in a race when she had legitimate trouble.
00:41I remember she was down on the inside that day at Gulfstream Park, needed her big time.
00:45But her overall body of work is very good. I think she could just focus on the sprint races.
00:51And once you get beyond six and a half, that's probably a little farther than where she wants to go.
00:55She's really good in that five and a half to six and a half range.
00:58And I think she'll be launching here. She likes this turf course. She just always comes running.
01:02Yeah, she's a really honest filly that's very good.
01:06Two for two at the distance, and they both have been over this surface.
01:09So things to like for sure. She's going to be down on the inside having to pass a lot of horses.
01:14But she's the one I like most.
01:16Flat out time will try the turf for the first time. She finished third in the grade three prioress.
01:20Scott, she finished behind a filly named Praying, who came back to win her next start in the TCA, which is a graded stakes race.
01:26So not sure how she'll stack up on the grass, but she's been in pretty nice form on the dirt.
01:31Yeah, first full out of the damn flat out speed. It was an Iowa bread that was eight for nine.
01:37But no turf there. This feels a little stabby for me, maybe hoping that she's better on the turf than maybe she's been on the dirt since the private purchase.
01:46Meet Govna found one mile too far. The stakes winner was victorious last out at Colonial.
01:51But I'm just not sure how good that field was. But my counter would be back in March and April.
01:56She ran some really good races behind She's So Spicy and Chloe and was not too far behind those pretty talented fillies.
02:02Her hand is probably going to be force drawing inside the next horse we're going to talk about.
02:07It was probably the fastest natural course in the race. They might end up going at it here.
02:11Her best efforts have been when she's had things her way on the lead.
02:14Yeah, Pop Idol does look like the one to catch in here, Scott.
02:18And if you just look at her last few races, the form seems to make a lot of sense.
02:22The races where she's gotten the lead. She hasn't had as much pressure.
02:25She's been really good, even at 17 to one, even when she had to go a little faster.
02:29But she was clear when she's been pressed and when she's been pushed.
02:33She just hasn't been the same type of horse.
02:35So I think we'll know early on with a filly like this.
02:38If she can clear the field, her chances will upgrade quite a bit.
02:42If she's being pushed and she's having to battle up front, I'm not sure if she's the type that's going to battle and hang around late.
02:49Yeah, I would agree with that.
02:50I think she took advantage of a favorable situation too back and didn't have things her way last out.
02:55So it would be kind of a price-dependent play the way I look at things.
02:59Six furlongs might be a little longer than she wants, but I think it'll be fine.
03:02Yeah, I agree with you.
03:03I think she has gotten six furlongs on the synthetic against lesser, right, against horses that she's better than.
03:09So this might be kind of pushing it for her.
03:11But we'll see if she can get loose out front in a race where there's just not that much early speed on paper.
03:16Somium has won two in a row at Penn National, Scott.
03:19Those are against much lower levels.
03:21So this is a pretty big step up here.
03:23Right, just the overall quality of competition is lesser.
03:26And then last time you see she moved into an allowance race, those are for Pennsylvania breads only.
03:31This is a huge step up.
03:32The next one up is It Ain't Two, grade three place Philly.
03:36Has not won in five starts in the U.S., but she has run well in some of those starts.
03:40And now she cuts back to her favorite distance of six furlongs.
03:44Could see her coming on the scene a little bit late, but she's not all that fast early.
03:49So she will have to likely be launching from way out of it, Scott.
03:53What do you think about It Ain't Two?
03:55Looks like she's kind of seeking her niche still for Riley Mott and Resolute Racing.
03:58But one thing you see in her running lines, three of the five races where the three races where she's been off the board, in fact,
04:04she's so spicy was the winner of all three of those, a very fast horse on the front end.
04:09Slightly Busy is taking a pretty big step up.
04:12The Blinkers come on for this New York bread has run well in her last two starts.
04:17But, you know, this is, again, another step up in class.
04:20And both of those wins that she had came against New York bread company.
04:24Right.
04:24Another one that's looking to take on much tougher competition has to face open company as opposed to just state breads at home.
04:31You know, Abiento is a little interesting to me, Scott, because this is a horse who I think is really like a six furlong to a mile type horse.
04:38Some of the races going five and a half, I think, are a little bit too short for her.
04:42She is a grade three winner going six furlongs at Belmont at the Big A.
04:46Didn't really get a setup last time out in that race behind She's So Spicy.
04:50And she did make an early wide move up to just about three lengths off.
04:54And she kind of kept grinding out wide.
04:56I think she fits at the level with this competition.
04:59Will she get the setup, though?
05:01Because she needs a little bit of help up front.
05:02That's my question.
05:03She does.
05:04You see the same runner in there.
05:05You just mentioned it.
05:06She's So Spicy three times in the last five, and that's generally not going to be a setup for Abiento.
05:12But Abiento can finish one of these days.
05:14It's going to be the right race, right trip, right setup.
05:17You got to hope it'll be a better price than three to one or so.
05:20Should be in this spot, I would think.
05:22It does have a win, one of the two wins in her career over this course.
05:26Anna's call will round out the field.
05:28She's a New York bred.
05:29She's multiple stakes placed.
05:31She comes off of a pretty nice win, especially visually.
05:33She was third.
05:34She backed up to two off.
05:35She was three wide, just traveling well.
05:37I mean, she always looked like a winner, Scott.
05:39She got a pretty good setup that day.
05:41I'm mainly concerned about the wide draw for her because her running style, she wants to kind of sit close, just a little bit off.
05:48And if they try to use that same running style from out wide, she could get parked a little bit.
05:52Yeah, you see her finishing there.
05:53She's got it when she gets the right setup.
05:55But that was, again, against New York bred competition.
05:58I think she's going to have her work cut out for her, as you mentioned, from the far outside to have things her way.
06:02Yeah, I thought there were a lot of different ways you could go in this field based on the trip that you think.
06:07And, Scott, you're going to go to Love Cervere, who seems like one of the logical horses who's going to come running late.
06:12Talk to us a little more about how you stacked them top four.
06:15Yeah, Love Cervere might not be a great bet if the pace is not as honest as I'd hope because she does need some pace.
06:20I did use your top pick, Pop Idol, and second, I do think the pace is going to be less than really hot for one of these turf sprints.
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