'In the future, people will look back nostalgically at Macron', expert says

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00:00This is apropos.

00:04Now is not the time to change president, says Emmanuel Macron's outgoing prime minister

00:09as the head of state faces mounting calls for snap elections.

00:13Two days after announcing his decision to resign,

00:16Sébastien Le Corneau says he believes that prospect appears to have receded.

00:22The Elyse has tonight confirmed that the president will announce a new prime minister within the next 48 hours.

00:27It comes after Le Corneau held two days of last-ditch talks with political opponents

00:33to try to defuse the current crisis and build support for a new budget.

00:38But he appears to have made little progress.

00:42I can assure you that this is not the time to change the president,

00:46because by definition, France's voice abroad,

00:50and with the governmental instability we've been experiencing for the past year,

00:54fortunately, the president is France's image abroad.

00:58Now, I'm not talking about him personally.

01:00You know how loyal I am to him.

01:02But I'm talking about his role.

01:04And so the presidential institution needs to be protected and preserved.

01:10For more on what might happen next,

01:12we're joined by Joseph Downing,

01:14Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at Aston University.

01:18Joseph, thanks so much for being with us on the programme.

01:22Now is not the time to change presidents as the outgoing prime minister.

01:27Is he right?

01:30Well, I mean, they don't have to change outgoing presidents currently.

01:34I mean, that's one of the key issues that France is facing,

01:37because Macron can hang on.

01:40However, it's quite clear that the sharks are indeed circling around Macron.

01:43I mean, the latest that we're going to see a presidential election is 2027,

01:48which sounds far away, but actually isn't, right?

01:51It's only a couple of years.

01:54And while a lot can change in politics in, you know, two weeks,

01:57I don't think that France is going to get a grip anytime soon on its budgetary woes.

02:03And I think it's likely that things will get worse.

02:06So Macron's key political rivals are smelling blood in the water

02:10and seeing that it's best for them to now not cooperate with him

02:14so that they can present a clean slate and a clean manifesto for the 2027 elections.

02:21However, it might not be time for a change in president,

02:24and there may not be no sort of legal obligation necessarily.

02:27But if Macron keeps nominating prime ministers who then go on to lead governments which collapse,

02:34I mean, there may not be many options left.

02:37I think, you know, the only option before we go to the point where we have to have presidential elections

02:41are parliamentary elections, which are very, very unlikely, I would say,

02:47to deliver any more clarity to Macron.

02:49So, I mean, he's really in a tough situation.

02:52Yeah, and that is the big problem, isn't it?

02:54Opinion polls suggesting that over three quarters of people here do actually want Macron to resign.

03:00But wouldn't a new president face exactly the same problems?

03:04Of course. No, no, no, 100%.

03:06I mean, that's the key issue.

03:07However, they will pretend that they won't.

03:11And that's the key issue here with the polarisation in French politics

03:15that we've seen over the past 10 or so years,

03:18as we've seen a massive polarisation towards the far left and the far right.

03:21Neither of who have any experience in government whatsoever,

03:26which for them is actually a strength right now, right?

03:28Because they don't have a track record that they have to defend.

03:32And they've made the most ridiculous utopian promises to French voters

03:36that French voters seem to be believing.

03:38So they will face very, very similar problems.

03:41And in fact, if not worse problems,

03:43because it's likely that an election of a far right or a far left,

03:48both of whom are in different ways,

03:50reasonably Eurosceptic, reasonably anti-globalisation,

03:54would massively rattle the financial markets,

03:57would push French bond yields up even higher.

04:00I mean, you know, for the first time this year,

04:02the French price that France is paying to borrow

04:07was higher than Italy's for a while,

04:10which is unprecedented territory for France in the 21st century.

04:15And so they would probably actually have an even worse situation

04:18to grapple with than Macron.

04:19But in politics, that doesn't really matter.

04:22What matters is perceptions and what you can promise.

04:24And right now, because they don't have a track record to defend,

04:27they can kind of promise the world.

04:29And that's exactly what they're doing.

04:30They're promising to, in fact, up welfare spending

04:33and lower the retirement age,

04:35all of which to us just seems a little bit insane, right?

04:39Given that that's really some of the cruxes of the issue.

04:43But if you're in opposition, you don't have a track record.

04:46You can say, you can promise really whatever you want.

04:48I mean, we saw that in the UK

04:50with promises made around the Brexit referendum

04:52and none of whom have materialised.

04:55And that's the problem with politics, I think,

04:57and one of the kind of key weaknesses of democracy

05:00is that when you're out of office, you can promise the world.

05:04But when you get into office, you very rarely can deliver it.

05:07And as for Macron himself, he's now as unpopular really

05:10as his predecessor was.

05:12He's respected internationally, though.

05:14So why has he fallen so far from grace?

05:19I mean, it's what I often discuss as the sort of paradox

05:23of French reform, right?

05:24I mean, if you do opinion polls in France,

05:27reform and the need to reform France,

05:31it does garner an amount of support.

05:35And if you speak to French people, they'll say,

05:37oh, you know, the status quo is no good

05:39and things need to change.

05:41But the problem is people don't want to make sacrifices

05:44for that change.

05:45And thus it puts any leader that comes in an extremely difficult position.

05:49And Macron came in as a reformer, which, I mean, you know,

05:53everyone can get behind the idea of reform

05:55until it means reform to their own privileges

05:59or until it means a kind of reform that perhaps

06:01they don't specifically agree with.

06:03And this really is, I think, has been one of his key problems.

06:06And I also think it's, France is a very difficult nut to crack, right?

06:13To be a popular politician, any president stands in the shadows

06:17of some of the greats of 20th century global politics,

06:23Chirac, Mitterrand, and most notably General de Gaulle.

06:28So it's very difficult, I think, for French presidents

06:32to be popular and to make a mark.

06:35Also, Macron has known for being quite aloof,

06:40coming across as quite arrogant.

06:42His manner with people and with voters is not very sympathetic.

06:47Also, there's questions, I think, about his private life.

06:50I mean, you know, there are the ridiculous conspiracy theories

06:53circulating in the US that Bridget Macron is indeed not a woman,

06:56but actually a biological man, which, again, sounds insane,

07:00but has gained a lot of traction online.

07:02And I think the fact that he's not your classic French president

07:05with a younger wife, with children,

07:08that possibly goes around having affairs,

07:10there is just something about him that I just think

07:13doesn't sit well with people personally.

07:16And I think that combined with, you know,

07:19a reasonably controversial political stance on reform,

07:22just isn't really a great mix.

07:27However, I don't think he's done a particularly bad job.

07:29I mean, in power, he's faced a lot of really,

07:32really difficult challenges.

07:33And in fact, generational defining challenges, right?

07:37I mean, we're talking difficulties of that magnitude.

07:40The COVID pandemic, Brexit, the war in Ukraine,

07:44the inflationary crisis and the cost of living crisis

07:47that, you know, most advanced democracies are facing.

07:50And I don't think he's done particularly bad.

07:53And I don't think by global standards,

07:54his reforms are particularly that contentious.

07:57It's just within the context of France,

08:00his, you know, mannerisms and his kind of, you know,

08:05non-typical family set up, shall we say,

08:08I think causes him some considerable issues.

08:12However, I do think in the future,

08:15people will look back almost nostalgically at Macron

08:18because I don't think what's coming next,

08:19whatever that may look like,

08:21is necessarily going to work that well either.

08:23Yeah, because I was going to ask you how he will be remembered

08:26when he eventually does leave office.

08:28But how responsible do you think he is for the current crisis, Joseph?

08:34Not that responsible.

08:35I mean, this is the problem, right?

08:36I mean, you know, most major democracies have huge levels of debt, right?

08:42But this is not something that the current incumbent leadership has caused.

08:48This has been going on since the sort of latter half of the 20th century.

08:53I mean, we could say something similar.

08:54Germany's not in such a dire position,

08:56but it still has a lot of debt.

08:57The US, we can see as currently a government shutdown

09:01because of the deficit.

09:02We can see an inability to agree a budget.

09:05We can see the UK is having problems.

09:07Italy, you know, I mean, this is everywhere, right?

09:10And this is not Macron's fault,

09:13as it's not Keir Starmer's fault,

09:15or indeed Donald Trump's fault.

09:17This is something that's been going on now for some considerable time.

09:20And nobody has a simple, viable answer, right?

09:24I mean, you know, Macron's take on this is we need austerity

09:27and we need to cut spending, we need to hike taxes.

09:30That's quite unpopular.

09:31Even some economists argue that that is counterproductive

09:34because it will stunt economic growth.

09:37But I just don't see a kind of simple way out of this pickle.

09:41And no politician across the democratic world

09:44or even beyond has a simple solution.

09:47Javier Malay was elected in Argentina to deal with huge deficits

09:52and, you know, much worse economic problems than France faces.

09:57He hasn't been able to figure this out either.

10:00So I don't think Macron necessarily, you know, deserves the blame.

10:04I mean, France's debt has also only ballooned since COVID.

10:07And I think we can see something across Europe where, you know,

10:10things like healthcare expenses, inflation, you know, increasing numbers of people

10:16on out of work, social security, haven't come down since COVID really in any meaningful way.

10:21And I think this is causing, you know, a lot of really significant issues.

10:27I also think he has done quite well internationally.

10:30I mean, France is going through a very difficult time internationally as well,

10:33losing some of its influence or, as some would say, sort of neo-colonial relationships

10:39with states in the Sahel and West Africa, where, you know, Russian propaganda

10:43and sort of quite shady military coups have taken place.

10:48And Macron has been able to reassert France's role on both the European and the global stage.

10:53He's done a much better job than Sarkozy or François Hollande ever did.

10:59But could the current political...

11:01It's a difficult...

11:03Sorry for cutting across you, but could the current political crisis, though,

11:06have been averted if he hadn't called those snap elections last year?

11:10Oh, yeah, 100%.

11:11No, no, no.

11:12I mean, this is one of the things, right?

11:13This is one of the...

11:14This will be the mistake, I think, that will mark his legacy, right?

11:18Because calling those snap elections was a gamble,

11:21a gamble that he thought he could win.

11:22Once again, feeding into that sense that there's something a little bit aloof

11:27and arrogant and out of touch about the man,

11:30which was a gamble that did not pay off, right?

11:32Which was a gamble that saw him, saw his share of the parliament reduced.

11:37It saw voters flock to the fringes of the left and the right,

11:42which is exactly not what he needed at that point.

11:44I mean, there are, you know, centrist forces on the centre-left

11:48and the centre-right that are much more amenable to working with Macron,

11:50who have a record in government, who, you know,

11:54who he could rely on to be a little bit more sane and sensible

11:57than the far left and the far right.

12:00And I think that really is the mistake that will be seen

12:04as perhaps the largest mistake of his presidency.

12:07Time will tell.

12:08Joseph, thank you so much for being with us on the programme.

12:10That is Joseph Downing, Senior Lecturer in Politics

12:12and International Relations at Aston University.

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