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Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financial Services, the real estate sector has seen a visible turnaround in the last few years, with developers showing financial discipline and faster project execution. However, he added a word of caution for investors.
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00:00Good morning and welcome to market opening on our brand new collab show between Business Today and India Today TV just after 9am and we're here to get you ahead of the curve as markets kick off trading for the day. Let's start with what's making news this morning.
00:27Top leaders of the Tata Group including Tata Trust Chairman Noel Tata and Tata Suns Chairman N. Chandrasekharan have reportedly met Home Minister Amit Shah and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last evening.
00:40This meeting comes amid infighting among trustees over board appointments and governance issues. It could be a consequence of infighting among Tata trustees or the recent spate of layoffs but the country's largest IT company, TCS, has decided to cancel its press briefing tomorrow for its second quarter results.
01:00All eyes on Tata Group counters as they open for trade today.
01:05Buying frenzy on Wall Street and Asian markets takes a small pause. U.S. indices retreat on profit booking and tech. Investors reportedly wary of a bubble forming around artificial intelligence.
01:18And gold may have crossed its Rubicon comfortably settling beyond the $4,000 level today.
01:24Prime Minister Modi to inaugurate the Navi Mumbai International Airport today.
01:32His Mumbai agenda also includes meetings with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer who arrived in Mumbai this morning and a high-level business delegation.
01:42The Prime Minister will also inaugurate a new 12,200 crore Mumbai Metro Line 3.
01:48Salary is expected to rise by an average 9% next year with NBFCs and the real estate sector leading the way.
02:01The Aon Annual Salary Increase and Turnover Survey says resilient consumption, investment and policy support will also lead to lower attrition.
02:11Our top story. There are reports coming in of unrest in the Tata Empire.
02:29Top leaders of the Tata Group including Tata Trust's chairman Noel Tata and Tata Sun's chairman N. Chandrasekharan reportedly met Home Minister Amit Shah and Finance Minister N. Mimera Sitaraman last night.
02:42This meeting comes amid reports of infighting among trustees over board appointments and governance issues.
02:48Others who are said to have joined the meeting in Delhi include Tata Trust's vice chairman Denu Srinivasan and trustee Darius Kambatta.
02:55The finance minister also joined in at the Home Minister's residence.
02:59For more on this, we're joined by Business Today's Krishna, Gopal and Krishna.
03:03This is a lot of back and forth with regards to those board appointments and critical really when it comes to the stability of the Tata Group.
03:13Talk us through all of the key developments.
03:16At the outset, Tata Trust, they are the single largest shareholder in Tata Sun's, the holding company of the group.
03:23They hold about 66%. The trigger for this entire development was the stepping down of Vijay Singh, the Tata Trust nominee on the board of Tata Sun's.
03:30I just want to reiterate the fact that Tata Trust can nominate one-third of the total number of directors on the board of Tata Sun's.
03:38Tata Sun's presently has nine, so one-third of that.
03:40Vijay Singh was a Tata Trust nominee.
03:42The background to this really started off with his resignation and some level of discomfort as far as boardroom discussions were concerned.
03:49It now transpires that Vijay Singh's position needs to be filled.
03:52And most importantly, one has to ensure that business is not affected because Tata Sun's, being the holding company, decides a capital allocation strategy for the group.
04:00It is a peculiar company in terms of it has absolutely no borrowings.
04:04All the money comes in largely from dividends of listed Tata companies.
04:07So any kind of upheaval within Tata Sun's as a consequence of what's happening at Tata Trust can lead to a pretty uncomfortable situation.
04:15So that's broadly what it is.
04:16But the way it's looking, I think this is going to play out for a while because there appears to be serious disagreements between the folks at Tata Trust.
04:24So I think there is more waiting to play out on this abha.
04:26Right. Krishna, we've heard, of course, that TCS has, you know, postponed its quarterly results press conference.
04:35Do you think there is a link here with the ongoing agenda at the moment with regards to really figuring out some of these key developments and high-level meetings?
04:45I think so, too.
04:45Also, the fact is that the IT industry itself has been going through a bit of a crisis with the H-1B announcement by President Trump notwithstanding the impact of AI.
04:52Right. And the fact that TCS also had to let go of 12,000 people.
04:56Media reports have suggested that number could be a lot more simply because contracts that are supposed to come up for renewal also haven't been done so.
05:03So I think the development within trust is one part of it.
05:06But given the pressure on margins in the IT sector and TCS known to be the well-worth of the sector could be another contributing factor to my own mind.
05:15All right, Krishna, thanks for joining us this morning.
05:17That's the big story we're tracking for you when it comes to India Inc.
05:21and we'll stay on top of that.
05:23We're also now joined by my colleague Shailendra Patnagar, Chief Analyst and Editor of Markets,
05:27as well as Gaurang Shah, who will be joining us shortly from GOG Investments.
05:32Shail, as we count down to opening bell, taking a look at the nifty right now, just a marginal downtick.
05:38If we take a look at the global setup as well overnight, we did see that little bit of profit booking coming in across those tech names
05:44and that profit booking sentiment really continuing into Asia this morning as well.
05:49What's the setup looking like, Shail, for us today?
05:51Well, good morning, Abha, and a very warm welcome to all our viewers.
05:59For the last four days, we've added somewhere like 630 points on the nifty.
06:04And yesterday's weekly expiry saw a mild profit booking kicking in from 25,200 levels.
06:11So, today, you'll see some sort of test of 25,000.
06:17But given the strong put writing at that level, I don't expect 25,000 to be broken.
06:22What's really interesting is that the market is showing strength and that strength should run up till Diwali.
06:29FII's Abha have turned net buyers 1440 crores as of yesterday on the net level.
06:35This is after 10 consecutive days of sales in which they sold out about 27,800 crores.
06:42That's a very big positive.
06:43And of course, sectoral rotation, banks, financial services, energy and auto are overbought.
06:53You should see money moving towards railway stocks, towards IT stocks, towards housing stocks.
06:59This is the broad theme for the market today, Abha.
07:01All right.
07:04Let me welcome in Gorang as well.
07:06Gorang, good morning.
07:08While we're tracking all kinds of news, of course, on the corporate front,
07:12when it comes to the markets and the index, you know, what are you watching out for?
07:16How likely are we to be testing the 25,000 mark today?
07:20Thank you so much, Abha, for hiring me on this show.
07:22A small disclosure.
07:24All recommendations that I'll be sharing this morning with you on your show, Abha,
07:27these are recommendations from our research team.
07:29Our company, GeoJit or I, we do not have any personal investments,
07:33no conflict of interest and no financial interest either.
07:36But we give recommendations to our clients on similar lines.
07:39They might have their investment interest.
07:41So speaking about sectorial, well, I think auto, cement, defense,
07:48cap goods, engineering, to a certain extent, the entire BFSI segment,
07:54Abha, that has been buzzing, especially the PSU bank,
07:56along with some strong NBFC names.
07:58Purely because of the business updates that have been given out by some of the banking stroke
08:05NBFC companies.
08:06I think this should be in the spotlight.
08:08And I think one particular sectorial index that you need to keep your eyes on is Bank Nifty.
08:14If there is a little bit of positivity in the numbers for the second quarter, Abha,
08:21I think the banking sector and Bank Nifty could pull us out of this resistance zone of 25,000,
08:2825,150 and possibly we might be heading towards 25,500.
08:32All right.
08:36Let me just take a look at some of the stocks and news as well.
08:39Keep an eye on all those startup group counters.
08:41There you have it.
08:42Given the news flow currently and until, of course, we get further clarity on that front,
08:49TCS just about flat on last close, of course, but Titan also in the news for some other reasons.
08:54Sales are up 20%, jewelry sales up 19%.
08:57International business has actually surged.
09:00So lots of various news flow when it comes to some of these Tata group counters.
09:04Tata Motors, meanwhile, retail sales approximately 17%
09:08and wholesale sales at JLR and Q2 are also 24% higher.
09:14Other stocks and news this morning, Reliance Industries,
09:17Anthropic to set up an India office exploring a partnership with RIL.
09:21That's Reliance and the news for you.
09:23So Coltip Patil, NCLT has cleared a merger with Coltip Patil Integrated Township.
09:28So that's the real estate counter that's going to be in the news this morning.
09:31We've got Unsealed Properties also approving.
09:33NCLT are again approving a resolution plan there for a greater NOIDA project.
09:37So a couple of these names that are in focus.
09:40Also, CAMS, IRFC, Sona, BLW all will be announcing results.
09:44That's coming in on October 28th, 15th and 27th respectively.
09:49So the results calendar is starting to fill up.
09:51Meanwhile, on Prestige Estates,
09:52Crystal has upgraded their ESG score to 54 from 51.
09:57And Concord has partnered with Ultratech
10:00to revolutionize bulk cement transport.
10:04So a whole host of stocks and news.
10:06Loda developers also Q2 pre-sales are up about 7%.
10:09I want to talk about some of these real estate counters.
10:12Gorang, whether it's Prestige, whether it's Loda,
10:15we saw phenomenal numbers coming in from Shobha just the other day.
10:18What's your view when it comes to some of these real estate counters?
10:22So Abha, we remain positive as a sectorial theme.
10:25We have about four or five odd names in the real estate sector that we are positive on.
10:30But just a small word of caution to the viewers of India today that despite of the major changes
10:37in terms of policy and discipline coming into the real estate sector,
10:41Abha, it still remains a bad boy of the market.
10:43It is still a high beta sector.
10:45But if I have to reflect upon the very recent past, forget about the history.
10:50Very recent past, big ticket size projects have got sold out,
10:53completely sold out, Abha, in matter of weeks and 10 days.
10:57Positive on DLF, Gojrej Property, Shobha Limited, Prestige States,
11:01Oberoi Reality, to name a few.
11:04And all these companies, Abha, that I've mentioned,
11:06their leverage or debt on the balance sheet is very, very low or negligible.
11:10And more importantly, the execution run rate in terms of completion of projects
11:15is much, much higher than the industry standards.
11:18But with a word of cautious, it is a sector that you should definitely keep your eyes on.
11:23But along with that, it is still a high beta sector.
11:27All right.
11:28Just counting down to open shell,
11:30let's just recap some of those top names that we'll be keeping our eye on today.
11:34Okay, that's the open for you.
11:52Let's take a look at the index.
11:54Opening just flat, as anticipated.
11:5725,000 though, 25,105.
11:59We were looking at that level and watching to see how we fare during the session.
12:05Nifty Bank looking a little weak this morning as well.
12:07Let's pull up some of the other indices and top gainers and losers for you.
12:11We've got IT just down marginally.
12:13That means we've got not too much of a reaction on TCS.
12:15We'll take a look closer look.
12:17We've got the auto index also flat with a negative bias.
12:19Negative bias across, it seems like.
12:22On the gainer side, Titan firing away.
12:24That is on the back of some phenomenal sales numbers coming in for Titan.
12:273% higher there.
12:28Adani Enterprises, Tata Steel.
12:31Some of the other names we've got moving this morning.
12:35Grassim, Bharti Airtel.
12:36So, cement seems to be a bit of a theme today.
12:39Definitely seeing some amount of action there.
12:42But, advanced decline ratio seems to be skewed towards the negative.
12:46And a lot of profit booking.
12:47Sriram Finance, Tata Motors, numbers not impressing there.
12:51Reliance, Nestle, all putting pressure on the index.
12:54Bajaj Auto, Ultratech is actually on the downside this morning.
12:58Sipla, Indicent Bank and the list goes on.
13:01A weak start it seems, Shail.
13:03Yes, Abha.
13:09All 19 indices that we track are in the red.
13:12This is okay.
13:13This is the first day of the weekly expiry on the Nifty.
13:17So, a bit of a back foot after four consecutive days of gains.
13:21630 points, 2.8% higher.
13:23So, some of it is going to be taken away.
13:26I would presume that 25,000 should be tested.
13:29But, Nifty is back in the green.
13:32And this time, as far as prices are concerned, the gainers on the Nifty are right there in front of you.
13:39A strong move coming into Titan, as you mentioned.
13:433.5% higher.
13:45Bharti Aeter in top form, 0.5% higher.
13:48Infosys, TCS, Tata Steel and Asian Pains are among the gainers.
13:52Overall, 1140 stocks in the green.
13:551040 in the red.
13:56So, it's a bit of even stevens.
13:59All right.
14:00Gaurang, let's talk about Titan.
14:03Good numbers coming in.
14:04I mean, we have seen a phenomenal move on some of those jewellery counters.
14:07So, I wouldn't say I'm surprised necessarily.
14:10But really strong numbers.
14:12What are you making of Titan?
14:14Well, I think it's all that glitter is gold, right, Abha?
14:17So, at a historical high level on gold and silver, along with that on plutonium.
14:23Festive season, still up and ticking.
14:27Along with that, you have a very strong marriage season coming up.
14:34We have a positive coverage on Titan from a long point of view.
14:37And not only the gems and jewellery business, Abha.
14:40I think the entire vertical with respect to wristwatches, gems and jewellery, eye care.
14:47Carrot Lane, they acquired some time back, which is doing extremely well in terms of platenium.
14:52Jewellery sales and other accessory business.
14:56I think, if I'm not mistaken, our target is somewhere close to about 4,000 rupees from a long-term point of view.
15:03All right.
15:05Sringar House of Mangasutra has also come out with a pat of 28.5 crores versus 17 crores.
15:12And revenue up 22%.
15:13So, let's just look at that one too on the back of earnings.
15:16Other than that, we've got a few others reporting earnings as well from the broader markets.
15:22But let me just focus on some of the FMCG names as well and get a quick comment from you there, Gaurang.
15:29Because we did see, you know, some amount of the Q2 outlook coming in from Marico.
15:34We're also seeing, well, pressure remains.
15:36But outlook wasn't all that negative.
15:39You know, want to get your take on that.
15:41But before that, actually, let me focus on power.
15:43Because we've got a lot of action brewing there.
15:45And this has been a consistent theme as well.
15:47Reliance Power.
15:49We've got Jayaprakash Power.
15:50You know, a whole bunch of these that are moving in trade today.
15:53Small cap power names particularly.
15:56Gaurang, let me get your take on some of these names.
15:59Well, with very humble request to all the viewers of India today is that please don't get into a suckers rally with names like JP Power and Reliance Power Abba.
16:10I think it's more potent to go with established players.
16:13Names like NTPC Tata Power, JSW Energy.
16:17Along with that, of course, you have to keep your eyes on the power transmission and distribution, something like Power Grid.
16:24Along with that, power equipment manufacturing companies like KAC International, etc.
16:29And the government policy is very, very clear.
16:32For the next three to five years, you have a huge capacity, new power generating capacity coming up Abba.
16:3775% of it is going to be focused on clean and green energy.
16:41So my sense is that power sector is also likely to do well.
16:43And of course, that entire, you know, couple of years back, there was this entire issue.
16:48Power theft was a big, big problem, which is now got replaced by smart meters.
16:52So that is also what resulted.
16:56Okay.
16:57Shail, I know that TCS has canceled its press conference, but the market doesn't seem too perturbed at the moment.
17:02And the tech basket is catching your eye.
17:05Tell us why.
17:10Abha, it's very, very simple.
17:12This is where sensible, long-term, value-driven investors are putting in money.
17:19The IT index was the worst performer in July, August, as well as September.
17:24So some of that is getting negated.
17:27It's the top-performing index today, 1.2% higher.
17:30And everything that you can think of in terms of negativity is baked in the price of TCS, Infosys, Wipro, Tech Mahindra as also a bit of small caps and mid caps in the IT space.
17:43So as we were pointing out in early morning that this was an oversold sector and therefore money will come back in, this is what is happening.
17:51And TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Tech Mahindra are four amongst the top five gainers on the Nifty.
17:57Abha.
17:58Are you in line with that strategy, Gaurang, that it's oversold, money is coming back into tech?
18:07Do you see it moving further from here?
18:08I surely believe that and I agree with my good friend, Shail.
18:14In terms of valuation also, I think we are at historical lows with the kind of headwinds that we are facing.
18:19Whether it is H-1B visa, $100,000, $1,000 fees or whether it is due with restrictions put by President Trump on expats getting employed by big names in the United States of America.
18:33Or in terms of discretionary or, you know, budgetary cuts which are likely to happen.
18:40My only request is that look at IT from a one and a half year point of view and I'm sure you will be possibly very, very happy in terms of the returns you will generate.
18:49So be positive on large cap, some of mid cap names as well as some small cap names in the IT universe.
19:24More details on the Prime Minister's schedule and key highlights of his visit as well.
19:29Pranay?
19:35Across to Pranay in just a moment but quite a hectic agenda that we have brewing there for the Prime Minister.
19:43And we'll try and get, you know, Pranay joining us in a minute to talk us through that in a bit more detail.
19:48Gaurang, are you going to be checking out the new airport?
19:50Well, as soon as they have the commercial operation starting, I'm sure, because as we all know, Abha, the T1 terminal, which is earlier known as Santa Cruz airport, is going to get demolished once the Navi Mumbai airport starts operation.
20:07And quite a few flights are going to shift from, possibly from T1, T2 to the new Navi Mumbai airport.
20:14So by default, you will have to travel over there if you want to catch a flight.
20:16All right.
20:20Well, exciting times for the city.
20:23Let me see if Pranay is back with us.
20:25But, of course, we'll also be tracking very closely the meeting of the Prime Minister with the UK Prime Minister as well tomorrow in Mumbai.
20:37So we'll keep you posted on all the developments there as well.
20:41All right.
20:41Back to markets for a moment.
20:43And let's take a look at what else is happening when it comes to the broader markets.
20:49Shell, just take us through what else is showing up on your charts.
20:52Abha, I think the trend has changed for the better.
20:59So 25,166 on the Nifty, 62 points higher and driven completely by the IT sector, 400 points on the Nifty IT index.
21:11That is looking good.
21:13And one stock which is also a favorite of Gaurang, maybe you can ask him, is Larson and Tubro.
21:19This is doing wonderfully well on the charts.
21:22And perhaps headed for a fresh record high, 37.54 for you today.
21:29And at this point of time, it's in very strong traction and possibly showing its best since December 2024.
21:39Abha, L&T.
21:40Wow.
21:42All right.
21:42Gaurang, let's get your view in on L&T as well.
21:46Also, my friend, Shell is bang on, right?
21:49We've been positive on L&T for a very long time.
21:52Abha, to be very honest.
21:54And it's got diversified business, be it complex engineering, be it infrastructure, be it hydrocarbon, be it turnkey projects, or be it the big theme that I personally am extremely positive about as a sectorial theme.
22:07And that is defense.
22:07And, you know, if I'm not mistaken, and I stand to be corrected if I'm wrong, L&T is one of the most investor-friendly company.
22:16Every two, three years or four years, when the appropriate time comes, the management gives out either one is to one bonus or one bonus for every two shares.
22:24Along with that, you have dividends.
22:26And along with that, you have a stellar performance by execution of the huge order book that they have.
22:32Positive on it, 4,000 plus could be the targets.
22:34Immediately in the immediate short to medium term.
22:37And I think long term, sky is the limit for L&T.
22:40All right.
22:44So we'll leave it on the show today.
22:45Gaurang, Sheryl, thanks so much for joining us.
22:47And, of course, we're keeping an eye on a couple of key and critical developments, both when it comes to the TADA group and all of those high-level, high-stake meetings there,
22:55along with the Prime Minister's agenda to inaugurate the Navi Mumbai airport and, of course, meet the UK PM tomorrow.
23:03So we'll keep an eye on both of those key developments as we go through the day.
23:08Do come back and join us for market closing as well at 3 o'clock.
23:11Thanks so much for watching.
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