- 4 months ago
After weeks of steady growth, benchmark indices are now showing signs of reaching fresh all-time highs, with investors looking for the next big opportunity.
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00:00all right welcome to market opening on our collab show between business today and India
00:21today TV just after 9 we're here to get you ahead of the curve as we kick off trading for
00:26the day let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate financial space this morning reliance
00:31industries in focus after Donald Trump sanctions two big Russian oil companies reliance is India's
00:37largest importer of Russian oil crude oil jumps 3% after the US president changes his playbook
00:45from tariffs to sanctions in a renewed bid to play peacemaker with Ukraine these are his first
00:51sanctions against Russia in his second term Asian markets expectedly nervous about Trump's plans
00:59uncertainties push major indices into the red Wall Street also ends lower after Tesla results Netflix
01:06plunges 10% after weak earnings sell-off in AI related and tech stocks
01:14can Indian stock markets play the contrarian act after a possible muted start reports of a trade
01:20deal with the US being inked soon will be a game changer for investors FIs have been net buyers for
01:26the past five trading days straight big deals in the defense sector Bharat Electronics wins a 633
01:36crore of the order from Cochin shipyard army signs 131 crore contract with JBM Auto for electric buses
01:42and also a mega 2700 crore of the order with Bharat Forge and Adani PLR for more than four lakh close
01:50quarter rifles Diwali and the festive season add their own sparkle to the Indian economy estimates put
01:58total sales during the period at 5.4 lakh crore rupees 27% higher than last year most of the
02:05businesses directly link higher sales to reduce GST rates Swadeshi also gets a big push after Prime
02:11Minister Modi's call all right let's first take you through some breaking news MCX gold let's pull
02:26that up for you we're seeing a quite a crash coming in on gold and silver this morning just pulling up
02:32the rates for you on your screen now we are reversing that fall somewhat with MCX gold opening up 800
02:40rupees and silver opening up near 1.47 lakh rupees that's up about 1300 rupees now so remember we've seen
02:48comex gold slide about 350 dollars from those record highs near 4100 dollars now comex silver has now
02:57topped off from 10% from a record in trading near 48 dollars but reversing that fall somewhat let's go
03:04close to Sugandha Sajdeh founder of SS World Street Sugandha good morning what's happening here with the
03:09precious metals after a series of successive all-time highs some amount of volatility in the prices
03:15yeah hi Abha we are seeing a streak of profit taking both the metals after both the metals tested record
03:21highs last week it's basically the dimming demand at higher level because the US has indicated that
03:27they are likely to strike a trade deal with China and that is reducing the safe haven appeal of gold
03:32besides there are expectations of a resolution to US government shut down so that is also leading to
03:39a reduced safe haven demand for gold and silver plus we are seeing profit-based booking after the
03:44both tested record highs and we have also some strength resuming in the dollar index so all of these
03:50factors are acting as catalysts to drive prices on the lower end line we have seen that prices have topped
03:56$1.4380 per ounce and for silver we have seen levels of $1.54.5 from there on we have seen a
04:03correction of close to 10% in both the metals yet we see that there could be some recovery as market
04:09is still pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Fed at the end of this month so that could
04:14again lead to some presumed buying in cuts at lower levels in terms of gold we see strong support emerging
04:21at that levels of around $39.50 per ounce to $4,000 per ounce in India and that would mean levels of
04:27around $21,000 on a closing basis for gold as long as this level holds we expect some recovery though
04:34it's not going to be a v-shaped recovery we expect some consolidation to persist in gold prices wherein
04:39prices can edge higher towards $1,25,000 to $1,27,000. Post that we expect a lot of consolidation to
04:48continue for a while we can call it a time wise and a slight price wise correction after close to
04:5565% surge that we have seen year to date in gold prices with silver also we maintain that $1,45,000
05:03mark is likely to act as a very strong floor area for prices and as long as that holds we expect some
05:10recovery but then we do not foresee prices inching past $1,67,000 in the near term we feel that both the
05:18metals will see a lot of consolidation as currently as well as this is a big surge and far above move that we have seen
05:24all right thanks so much for joining us this morning Sanganda for that quick look at what's
05:29happening on the precious metals let's take a look at the global markets as well overnight
05:34fairly cautious and and a little range-bound trade a bit of a fall also on the back of some poor earnings
05:39coming in on the U.S. market so red across the screen there Asia also seeing the same trend on the
05:45back of nervousness around what's happening with U.S. China again fractured relations really coming to the
05:51surface there so a spot of red pretty much across the green on global markets in his first Ukraine
05:57related sanctions on Russia in his second term U.S. President Donald Trump has targeted oil companies
06:03Luke oil and Rosneft which you know are Russia's largest oil companies the sanctions are a major
06:08policy ship for Trump who had not put sanctions on Russia over the war and instead relied on trade
06:14measures state-controlled Rosneft headed by Putin's close ally Igor Sechin and privately held Luke oil are the
06:21two largest Russian oil producers jointly accounting for nearly half of Russia's total crude exports the
06:28crude oil market reacted immediately with prices jumping around three percent well I don't know that they
06:35will I think that they'll certainly have an impact there there massive sanctions and sanctions on oil the two
06:42biggest oil companies among the biggest in the world but they're Russian they do a lot of oil and
06:47uh hopefully it'll push uh hopefully he'll become reasonable and hopefully Zelensky will be reasonable
06:55too you know it takes two to tango as they say and we're going to find out they've had they hate each
07:00other these two people hate each other you know that better than anybody's well always to the point now
07:07let me welcome in our guest this morning Gaurav Sharma associate VP and head of research globe capital
07:11Gaurav good morning just counting down to opening and Mahurad session was all right just a spot of green
07:17to keep us a little merry but this morning what are we anticipating coming off some weak global cues
07:23hi Abha morning thanks for having me today on your show so I think uh first of all season's greetings to
07:32you and to all the viewers of India today and this is today tv so I think the Diwali cheers the rockets and the
07:38full juries and the chakris are all around the corner and what we are witnessing on the last week today
07:44is just the outcome of that the Diwali celebrations are on the move we are heading towards a lifetime high
07:5026 200 on the board as we talk implied opening are suggesting a very good a strong opening to the
07:57Indian brochures today uh what I would be expecting is overall participation banking has operate performed
08:03well uh surge in IT and the oil and gas bar alongside with metal is also quite likely uh the the rising
08:12hopes between a US China deal and a US India deal is actually the catalyst to the recent rise that we are
08:19seeing in equities and uh equally important uh catalyst for the recent drop in the uh precious metal
08:28prices that we have seen in the past one or two trading sessions and this is this this this particular
08:33phenomena is is likely to continue 26 to 277 was the previous high let's see whether the index is able to
08:42break it today or not I'll be I'll be very much hopeful and optimistic that we see a new high in today's
08:48trading session as well so keeping my fingers crossed for that I mean it looks possible I don't know what's
08:54happened everyone went for a holiday came back and the markets are on fire this morning we've got IT
08:59looking fantastic as you also mentioned Gaurav and only two stocks on the nifty 50 are actually in the
09:05red this morning everything else is moving higher look at the IT index it's up close to two percent right
09:10now um powering it away are for example Infosys, Wipro that's where we're seeing all the action come in
09:16this morning on your screen HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, IT all the way what's happening here Gaurav because we
09:22had the numbers come out markets have digested the numbers what's leading to this reaction today of
09:27all days I think it's it's basically the outcome of of the fact that we are nearing a deal India and
09:36US are nearing a deal Piyush Goyal has visited and met a lot of American counterparts and if that deal
09:44happens IT pharma will be the most to gain out of it because they were the one that you know impacted
09:53the most so when the positivity comes the sweetness will be witnessed in these packs and I fail to
09:59recall when did I last witness the IT index soaring two percent exactly I'm trying to recall that as
10:05well it's been such a rough rough year for IT so clearly that's really where the action is let's pull up
10:11some of those oil and gas stocks as well just to mark them see any impact on the back of those
10:17sanctions that are being imposed on Russian oil and gas majors a dip when it comes to the oil and gas
10:22index particular stocks let's just take a look reliance is actually up half a percent not showing too much
10:28uncertainty right now remember it's it's likely to be one of those that will be impacted since it also
10:34sources from their BP sales down about a percent right now this morning but otherwise oil and gas not
10:39seeing too much volatility in early morning trade probably waiting to see how it plays out but BPCL
10:45HPCL the OMCs that's where we're seeing a hit coming in not so much on RIL but definitely across
10:51the OMCs IOC BPCL HPCL all of those three are very much in the red we're eyeing of course the oil
10:57sanctions and all your importers will get impacted there all right let's take a look at what else is
11:03moving as well in the markets this afternoon this morning and touch upon you know that spot of red
11:10Nestle I think is possibly because of earnings so markets probably just reacting to that no major
11:16reaction either way but Nestle showed a decent set of numbers and we're also seeing a whole host of
11:22companies in the consumer space got a reacting post the festive sales and the GST impact that they're
11:28already claiming so earnings seem to already be in line in terms of volume growth so far from what
11:35we're seeing indications of on some of these consumer names I think the GST 2.0 timings was just
11:42on the dot when it comes to benefiting the end user the Diwali time is is a time when most of us do a lot of
11:53purchases whether it be it may be gold purchases it may be our vehicular purchase or it may be the
11:59white goods or whatever kind of electronic gadgets we we purchase generally Navratri Diwali these are
12:06the time when when when you know people go out and do the purchases and they were benefited out of it
12:11the the GST cut was there and similarly what we are witnessing is a somewhat of a benefit coming into
12:19the uh to the FMCG pack as well the kind of results that Nestle came in you've rightly pointed out
12:25has actually uh paved the way and and given us hopes that we would probably see a a close to a double
12:33digit kind of a growth uh on on a median terms as far as a larger uh names are concerned HUL will be
12:40posting their numbers today and what we are expecting I am personally expecting uh eight to ten percent
12:45rise in their top line figures and if that comes in that that will be a clear boost and will pave way
12:50for the further you know the davas the maricos uh the britannias of the of the industry that they
12:56would also be uh in in the mood of coming on to similar lines and similar uh profitabilities
13:02absolutely now India's fester spirit as we're discussing is translated into record-breaking
13:09trade this Diwali as Swadeshi push and GST rate cuts have powered the biggest ever festive sales
13:16crossing a staggering 5.4 trillion in goods from gold to groceries Indian market has truly lit up
13:23this season let's go across to my colleague uh Karishma Asudhani for more details on what's
13:27uh behind this unprecedented Diwali boom Karishma over to you
13:31well uh Abha it's evident and in fact I was hearing your chat where you had mentioned
13:38uh that the markets are also uh a majority of them are in green and I think this speaks about
13:45the confidence that domestic investors has have have showed and uh uh the the data recently released
13:53also spoke about how Diwali sales this year have seen an uptick of 25 percent more than that of
13:59last year to throw uh some numbers it's been at 5.4 trillion in comparison to about 4.25 trillion
14:07that was last Diwali in fact the auto sales need no separate introduction on this uh about close to 15
14:14to 35 percent uptick in auto sales uh have also been reported during the time of the Pavli let me take
14:21take you back to what finance minister Nirmala Sitaraman and commerce minister Piyush Goyal
14:26uh had shared uh just a week back during uh uh Dhanteras where they interacted with the press that
14:34this year because of the GST cuts and the Swadesi and and and an intense need of pushing the Swadesi
14:41movement there could be a higher consumption by close to 10 percent
14:45all right that sounds really optimistic especially uh uh you know for the sector and for what we will
14:52then see on the earnings front as well thanks for joining us Krishna and taking us through that
14:56let me come back to you Gaurav on some of the other pockets of the market and specific stocks I know
15:00you mentioned the sectors that you're looking at but let's get into specific stocks that you got
15:04your eye on and I also just want to mark emphasis before we come to you for that reply because it is
15:10looking incredibly strong we're above 26 000 on the nifty of course Gaurav's already eyeing a new high
15:16and in fee is your top mover today it's up three percent a really really strong move coming up on
15:22it across the board in fee leading the way but we've got Wipro HCL Tech TCS Tech Mahindra everything
15:30uh firing away as well Gaurav see uh Infosys is a stock is a company that drives a large
15:40chunk of revenue from a company from former country where a question marks are there which
15:55are living some some you know uh very extravagant kind of figures that were in terms of uh taxes that
16:04were levied on the Indian players so now as as we uh edge close towards uh signing of a deal
16:12they are gaining pace they are gearing up for further up move there is another move that the
16:17Infosys promoter will not be participating in the buyback which would rise hopes that the retail
16:22uh participants would be able to tender more and they will be accepted so that is also one news that
16:29that is uh you know uh coming up on the street and leading to this uh up move now apart from uh
16:39from from from from IT as we speak which which is the show set of for the date we are pretty much
16:45optimistic on some of the uh auto names we remain bullish on Mahindra and Mahindra from the four
16:51four-wheeler pack and hero motocop still remains our uh positive and one among the best pick as far as
16:58two-wheeler pack is concerned from the banking past we are very much optimistic and bullish on
17:02the larger uh public sector giants like SBI, Canera Bank, Bank Paroda the the smaller ones are
17:10also gearing up they can also be considered for a short-term trading perspective but from a long term
17:15SBI, Canera Bank remain our top picks. SDFC Bank is one stock which is at its lifetime highs
17:21and there is more room to spare now going ahead in the next two quarters we expect the SDFC Bank to
17:29deliver good numbers and to perform better than what it has performed in the first half of the year
17:34so these are some of the areas looking corners where we are optimistic at other than that Titan
17:40remains one of our favorite trick it has formed part of our Diwali pick as well we are bullish on the
17:46housing finance space also because of one percent repo rate cut will be you know uh come into place
17:53and the transmission delay generally takes uh about two quarters to to to actually come to the end user
18:00and as we speak that you know uh these two quarters have gone by now what we are expecting is a better and
18:08a much more uh kind of uptake in the real estate bank therefore we are bullish on some of the
18:13housing uh finance companies actors uh again becomes part of our uh Diwali pick other than that
18:20LAC housing is also one stock we are pretty much bullish on it so whole host of picks coming in
18:25there from Gaurav banks of course and a select few names in his basket remember banks are also primed to
18:31benefit from the latest consumption play as well housing finance uh names and so forth so really it's
18:37all about consumption but i want to switch track for a moment big deals in the defense sector
18:41bharat electronics winning a 600 crore order from kochin shipyard the army signing a contract with
18:47jbm auto for electric buses and also a mega 2700 crore rupee order with bharat forge and adani plr
18:54for more than four lakh close quarter rifles defense has also been a sector gaurav that everyone's been
18:59eyeing a lot of action and movement there structurally as well uh we're seeing a lot of these stocks
19:05moving and primed for really good returns what's your view and would you have any picks in that pack
19:10harat force today is up four percent on the back of that news so abha firstly i want to make a
19:15disclosure here yes we do have a view on it we we have coverage on some of the uh some of the defense
19:23names but we i just want to update the viewers that defense is a story which has to be taken into
19:28account from a long-term view it is not a short-term story to set in one one order can have an impact on
19:34stock that can you know perform for some time but on a larger front these kind of contracts
19:40from the indian government will will you know keep on going india is now one country which is
19:46participating globally we are getting in export orders as well therefore this is one industry
19:52which will witness a lot of uh a new capex expansion a lot of government interest and you know a lot of
20:00the negative part is a lot of you know documentation work a lot of uh approvals are required to actually
20:08uh set a company which is into the defense and arms and ammunition business
20:15we remain bullish on two companies the first is h a l and the second is massacre on dock we are very
20:22much bullish on these stocks but we do have a one and a half to two years kind of a horizon on this
20:27so if some person can you know the viewer can invest money for one and a half two years you can
20:33simply uh consider these stocks from from a long-term perspective but again i would say from a short-term
20:39perspective it will be a trading bet purely thank you so much gaurav and for joining us today great to
20:46get your very detailed views on some of these pockets uh the two stars this morning we've got
20:51bharat forge of course we were just discussing we've also got infosys remember also the promoters have
20:57opted out of the buyback that's the other news in infi we've seen the entire tech pack rally this
21:02morning with infi is leading the way and i'll pull it up for you once again and the other news there to
21:07keep an eye on is the fact that of course the promoters have opted out of the buyback for tax
21:11implications and infi is up about three percent right now today that's definitely one of the big
21:16news makers this morning that's where we leave it on the show but do tune in for market closing at
21:203 p.m thanks so much for watching
21:22you
21:22you
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