Yankees vs. Red Sox Showdown: High Stakes Wildcard Series

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00:00I want to talk about the big one, Yankees, Red Sox.

00:03It's in the Bronx.

00:04It's at 6.08 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, and then on Wednesday, 6.08 again.

00:11We have set pitching matchups for the front two.

00:14If it does go to game three, we know Cam Schlittler gets the ball for New York.

00:17We don't know who gets the ball for Boston.

00:20We know Brian Baio and Carlos Rodon will get a game two

00:23and a matchup of two of the best lefties in baseball,

00:27Garrett Crochet and Max Fried in game one.

00:29Here on Tuesday night.

00:31This is electric.

00:32It's theater.

00:33This is the most storied rivalry, maybe in all of sports,

00:37certainly professional sports, and we get to see it on the wildcard stage again.

00:42There's some recent history between these two on this stage,

00:45but it feels a little more fun, a little different with Crochet and Fried going right now

00:51because these are the two shiny new toys for both of these sides.

00:55It's perfect.

00:56It is perfect.

00:57And the Red Sox kind of own the Yankees 2004, 2018, 2021, just this season in their head-to-head

01:08matchup.

01:09The Red Sox are nine and four, including winning three of four games towards the tail end of

01:15the season.

01:16Even in New York, the Red Sox are five and two.

01:21So if we're looking at how these two teams have performed against each other, you would

01:25certainly lean towards the Red Sox.

01:29But when you look into the matchups and you look into some of the data, especially on offense,

01:34the Yankees have a clear advantage on offense with the Red Sox losing Lucas Giolito.

01:40You would also probably say that the Yankees have an edge in the starting rotation.

01:45Now, I would totally give the edge to Boston when it comes to that bullpen.

01:49The Red Sox, led by Roldis Chapman, the best reliever in baseball this year, have been a

01:55top five unit while the Yankees are lucky to be average.

01:58And when I mean lucky to be average, they are a below average bullpen, even though they

02:04added multiple quote-unquote great arms at the deadline who haven't exactly performed

02:11outside of David Bednar.

02:13So this one is going to be a slugfest.

02:16I can't wait on him.

02:18I was, so here's my one thing, because I agree with everybody.

02:21If it was a seven game set, I would say Yankees, and I'm not really even worried about it.

02:27If it was a five game set, I'd say Yankees, and I feel pretty good.

02:31The three game set where Garrett Crochet could just put the team on his back and win game

02:36one is what makes me nervous.

02:38Then the Red Sox just have to make something happen in one of two games.

02:42How much is that?

02:43And also, then I was looking at Brian Baio's, a small sample, but Brian Baio's numbers

02:47against the Yankees this season have been great.

02:49Really, really good.

02:50I think he's been better against the Yankees than any other team in baseball.

02:52But you know how that stuff goes.

02:53Then that means the Yankees go bombs away or something game one.

02:56But three game set, and the Red Sox have the advantage in game one, pitching-wise.

03:02And then, of course, Yankees make it up there on the other side of things.

03:06How does that make you feel, though, in terms of how much weight do you put into just having

03:10one of the best pitchers on the planet?

03:12And I feel like I'm underselling Freed, but I just think Crochet, in a way, can just

03:16legitimately win you the game by himself.

03:18How much does that sway things for you?

03:21It's, you know, it's got me thinking a lot of different things.

03:25Here's where I'll start.

03:26The Yankees right now are minus 130 favorites on BetMGM against the Red Sox in game one.

03:31And you ask yourself why.

03:33Garrett Crochet has won all four of his starts against the Yankees this season.

03:37All four.

03:38And he's been an underdog in most of those, right?

03:41Especially if he's facing off against Max Freed or whatever, right?

03:45He's loading up on strikeouts.

03:47He has just been awesome.

03:48But on the other side, Max Freed has a 196 ERA against the Red Sox this season through

03:5418 innings.

03:56Crochet has won all four of his starts, but it's a 3-2-9 ERA.

04:00We've even seen Aaron Judge go yard.

04:02We've seen Aaron Judge strike out all the time against Garrett Crochet.

04:05We've seen both happen.

04:07So what I will say is, how likely is it that Garrett Crochet wins all five of his starts against

04:15the Yankees this year?

04:18I don't think it's very likely.

04:19I just think it's really hard to beat a team every single time in five times that you face

04:25him.

04:26When Freed has these great numbers against the Red Sox, when the Red Sox have lost Roman

04:31Anthony, and you look at the differences in offenses, especially because the Yankees,

04:36especially in the second half, that offense has been incredible.

04:40Stanton's heating up.

04:41Judge really took hold of the MVP.

04:43He's now up to a minus 3.30 favorite on bet MGM, even though Raleigh hits a home run

04:48every day.

04:48That's how good Judge has been.

04:50So for me, I think the Yankees are going to win this series.

04:53Now, from a betting perspective, plus 145, there is value on the Red Sox.

04:57Are you kidding me?

04:58The Red Sox could definitely win this series.

05:01So I think the price is off.

05:03But I still go with the Yankees to end up winning it.

05:08And I think a big reason why losing Giolito is really tough because now are the Red Sox

05:12going to go with a rookie in Connelly early or Kyle Harrison when the Yankees are the best

05:17team in baseball against lefties this season?

05:20That's tough.

05:21So the Red Sox could even win game one.

05:23Doesn't mean they're winning this series.

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