US intel says China is expanding and modifying its growing civilian fleet of seafaring ferries for a possible Taiwan invasion. TaiwanPlus spoke with Guermantes Lailari at INDSR on what this expansion signals for Beijing’s increasing gray-zone pressure and military readiness.
00:00The report says that China has been expanding its commercial ferry fleet to better prepare for a potential Taiwan evasion.
00:07In your view, how effective have these non-military actions to pressure Taiwan been?
00:11I believe that China's non-military pressure tactics on Taiwan have yielded mixed results,
00:19successfully normalizing its presence but failing to significantly alter Taiwanese public opinion or weaken Taiwan's resolve.
00:28If China were to use civilian ferries for military purposes, which is the focus of your question,
00:34it would have significant implications under international law, particularly the law of armed conflict, also known as international humanitarian law.
00:42This strategy intentionally blurs their strategy and intentionally blurs the line between civilian and military assets,
00:49which is a foundational principle of the law of war. They're not supposed to do that.
00:54So when does a civilian vessel become a military target?
00:59Under the principle of distinction in international law, parties to a conflict must always differentiate between combatants and non-combatants,
01:07and between military objectives and civilian objects.
01:12Civilian ferries are normally protected objects.
01:15However, this protection is conditional.
01:17A civilian vessel loses its protected status and becomes a lawful military target if it makes an effective contribution to military action.
01:26So some examples that would cause a vessel to lose its protection include transporting troops and military equipment,
01:33which is what we think is happening, or laying mines, gathering intelligence, assisting in a military blockade.
01:40When a civilian vessel performs these kinds of functions, military function, it can be targeted and captured.
01:48Taiwan's Coast Guard over the weekend reported that two Chinese research vessels had illegally entered its water,
01:55which suggests an uptick in gray zone activities from China.
01:59How do you think Taiwan can better respond?
02:01First of all, it can increase its technological upgrades for maritime surveillance.
02:07Second, Taiwan needs to develop a legal strategy, much like the Philippines is,
02:14is to document the infractions that China is doing against Taiwan.
02:20Taiwan's allies need to come in and say, yes, China is doing this.
02:24It's wrong.
02:24They need to mount a campaign.
02:27Besides all these other things, Taiwan needs to integrate its Coast Guard with its military,
02:32with a lot of things so that they work in harmony against Chinese infractions.
02:40With all these happening, the Washington Post also reported that Russia has been helping China
02:45bolster its air defense capabilities, with China bolstering both its air and naval power.
02:51What are some of the major lessons Taiwan can draw from these developments?
02:55What China is doing now is developing what we call in the military courses of action.
03:02These are things that, these are ways that a country would pursue a war using different forces.
03:10What Taiwan needs to do is bolster not only its conventional defense capabilities,
03:16what it's doing every day and pushing back on the PLA and the Coast Guard,
03:21but also it needs to bolster its asymmetric capabilities.
03:25Also, Taiwan needs to enhance its air and missile defense,
03:28because when those airborne troops show up, they're going to try to take a port or airport.
03:33Taiwan needs to harden its critical infrastructure to protect it from being attacked that way.
Be the first to comment