Waves of showers and thunderstorms developing this week

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00:00Well, enjoy a comfortable and dry day today. The humidity already is moving back in for tomorrow.

00:04It's going to lead to a couple of very soggy days and then unsettled but hotter heading into the weekend.

00:19So pretty nice day today. Temperatures in the 70s statewide to near 80 in the Twin Cities

00:24and dew points for most of us in the 50s. Very comfortable today. About half the water in the

00:29air today compared to a couple of days ago. You can really feel the difference here over the last

00:3424 hours. Still some lingering showers. A couple of thunderstorms in far southern Minnesota and

00:38especially Iowa. That's where that front is. It hasn't moved that far south of us yesterday and

00:43that same front is going to be lifting back north. Even a marginal risk of some isolated, very isolated

00:49severe storms in the southernmost counties of the state into Iowa for us. But mainly we're looking

00:54at a heavy rainfall threat here developing tomorrow into Thursday. So as mentioned, that front and those

01:00showers, the humidity all just to the south. And Iowa winds out of the south behind that front. We

01:05have that nice high pressure, comfortable air northwesterly winds today, but it's not going to

01:10last real long. So Twin Cities and central and northern Minnesota comfortable. But here come that

01:14those muggy dew points already tonight into tomorrow. And that will help to spawn showers and

01:19thunderstorms that could train over the same areas, meaning the storms continue to develop over the same

01:24regions. And that leads to these very heavy rainfall amounts. Precipitable water, the water in the

01:29column of the atmosphere, about double the normal values for this time of year. So the recipe, the

01:34ingredients are there for some potentially heavy rainfall. So early tomorrow morning, already showers

01:38and thunderstorms. A couple of waves of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday for central and

01:43southern Minnesota that's going to really add up here to significant rainfall over the next couple of

01:48days. Now tomorrow, that marginal risk of potentially some severe storms reaches up to the

01:52Twin Cities. Again, we're talking just one or two rogue storms that can produce some large hail or some

01:57brief damaging wind gusts. The main issue is going to be the potential for some heavy rainfall. And

02:02depending upon where those storms set up, we may be dealing with some flash flood warnings. So

02:06widespread one to four inches of rain included in the Twin Cities in the middle of that, with

02:12potentially maybe the heaviest rainfall just to the south. But the models still have a decent spread as

02:17far as where those heaviest totals occur. From the Weather Protection Center, we have an excessive

02:21rainfall risk, slight risk here for the Twin Cities and Point South that we could be dealing with

02:26rainfall in excess of potentially flooding criteria. Rain-cooled temperatures tomorrow too, just around

02:3370 with the clouds and showers. But jumping ahead to the weekend, it's going to be heating up again,

02:38potentially 90 degrees in southern Minnesota by Saturday afternoon. And with some pretty soupy dew points,

02:44the humid air will be really moving back in here for Friday, Saturday, Sunday. And that combination of the

02:49heat and humidity means that you just cannot rule out some thunderstorms this weekend. It's going to

02:53be kind of unsettled. No washout, but there will be the chances because we're still going to be in

02:57this pretty active upper level flow where all these little disturbances, those are those yellow and

03:02red blotches. These are little waves aloft, little ripples in the atmosphere could touch off a shower

03:07thunderstorm at any moment just because of the moisture that'll be around. So it looks like during the

03:11day Saturday, best chance for northern Minnesota. But then late Saturday night into Sunday, we could see some

03:15thunderstorms develop in central or northern Minnesota that then push through the Twin Cities

03:19and southern Minnesota early Sunday morning, moving out. But then maybe some redevelopment

03:25potentially in the day Sunday. So you get the idea kind of unsettled, but we're not going to see any

03:29all-day rains or storms here this weekend. That will be reserved for tomorrow and the first half of

03:35Thursday. So near 80 today, comfortable, gorgeous day. Enjoy it. The next couple days are soggy

03:41and muggy, but not hot. Just low 70s for highs. On and off showers and storms we clear out probably

03:49already by Thursday. Friday looks decent, a little less muggy, but pretty humid here Saturday with

03:54temperatures in the upper 80s, maybe near 90. And then again, right now, it looks like the best

03:58chances of storms Saturday night into early Sunday. But pinpointing the timing with those fast-moving

04:04disturbances this weekend, a little difficult until we get closer to it, but just be aware that we could

04:09see some thunderstorms over the weekend along with that warmer, more humid air mass.

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