00:00Relations between Japan and China are set to be at their lowest point in more than a decade.
00:06Japan's new prime minister has sparked controversy with recent comments about the possibility of a military confrontation with China over Taiwan.
00:15China has responded with outrage, ramping up its rhetoric against Japan.
00:18All of this making diplomacy between the two countries more and more difficult.
00:23Monty Francis has the story.
00:24Last month, just weeks after taking office, Japanese Prime Minister Sana'a Takeuchi raised eyebrows when asked by a reporter what a so-called Taiwan contingency involving a Chinese naval blockade would mean for Japan.
00:40If it involves the use of warships and the exercise of military force, then by any reasonable standard, I believe it could constitute a survival-threatening situation.
00:50The idea that Japan would intervene if China attacked Taiwan prompted a furious response from Beijing and seemed to undo any goodwill fostered a week earlier when the newly elected PM met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
01:05In a sign of Beijing's fury and a since-deleted social media post, China's consul general in Osaka threatened to cut off that dirty neck, apparently referring to the Japanese leader.
01:16On Wednesday, China evoked memories of World War II while accusing Japan of stoking a military confrontation, citing the fact that Japan has drastically increased its military spending.
01:29Japan's attempt of remilitarizing itself through accelerated military buildup will only make the world once again question where Japan is headed, and it will demand another reckoning with its war crimes.
01:41Earlier this week, Japan protested after Chinese fighter jets locked radar on Japanese aircraft in airspace over the Okinawa Islands during a training exercise.
01:52The row has also prompted China to issue travel warnings, citing safety risks, prompting hundreds of thousands of Chinese travelers to cancel flights to Japan.
02:02But is the relationship past the point of no return?
02:08A new article by the Center for Strategic and International Studies outlines all the points that have made Tokyo and Beijing further apart than ever.
02:15Let's hear what's at stake from one of the report's authors, Bonnie Lin.
02:18She joins us live now from Washington.
02:20Bonnie, thank you so much.
02:21You've studied conflicts between the two nations, both diplomatically and militarily.
02:27But what feels different this time?
02:28What feels different this time is in all the other past episodes between China and Japan, most of it has focused on the Senkaku Islands, which is a disputed territory between China and Taiwan.
02:41The Senkakus, or Diaoyi Islands, as they are called in Chinese, have never been as core to China as Taiwan.
02:47So one element that's different is from the Chinese perspective, Japan is now taking a position on Taiwan, a more important interest to Beijing than the Senkaku Island.
02:59What's also different now is compared to some of the episodes related to the Senkaku Islands, which our article talks about in 2010 and 2012, is that China is much more powerful now than before.
03:12And what we're seeing so far in terms of Chinese escalation, as we've put in the article, is probably only just the tip of the iceberg if China wants to escalate more.
03:22Would you say that China is scared of anything, given its huge leverage, as you mentioned?
03:27So I think China does have domestic problems at home, including still a relatively weak economy.
03:36So I do think China is likely wary of engaging in significant economic actions and also wary that Japan has pretty good relations with a number of advanced countries.
03:48And if China takes significant action against Japan, there are major question marks in terms of how Japan's close friends and allies might respond.
03:58I think what we saw earlier this week with the U.S. State Department taking a position on this issue and criticizing China for locking its radar or Chinese aircraft for locking its military radar on Japanese aircraft is a good sign from Japan's perspective.
04:13But I do think, as we write in the article, China does and could significantly escalate more on the military side and on the economic side.
04:24So on the economic side, in past episodes between China and Japan, we've seen, for example, China threaten as well as cut off rare earths to Japan.
04:32We have yet to see that.
04:33On the military side, in addition to what you mentioned before, the Chinese embassy in Japan published in both English and Japanese an allegation that the U.N. Enemy Clause could allow China to use military force against Japan, which, from their perspective, was a loser from World War II and had committed all these atrocities.
04:57But that's a misinterpretation of the U.N. clause, but it's interpreted by experts and scholars like us to mean that China is potentially politically setting the stage to potentially use military force if it wanted to, if the crisis were to further escalate.
05:13What about Takeuchi herself?
05:15Because she hasn't seemed very repentant about those remarks.
05:19Takeuchi herself.
05:49And if you look carefully at her response, she actually never mentioned the word Taiwan.
05:54And her response was also caveated.
05:56So in addition to the little segment that you played earlier, if you look at her response and the overall Japanese government response, you'll see that she caveated this by saying that in addition to this could potentially allow Japan to consider this as a survival threatening situation,
06:13Japan would have to take into account all the specific circumstances and the actual situation and considering all these factors together, then Japan could potentially think about an appropriate action.
06:25Nowhere in her statements does she actually commit Japan to using force to defend Taiwan, nor does she actually commit Japan to taking any particular course of action vis-a-vis Taiwan.
06:35So the way she phrased it is actually in line with a lot of private discussions that we have already seen within the Japanese government, as well as in private discussions between the United States and Japan.
06:47We just haven't seen any Japanese leaders say this publicly in an official setting.
06:51Well, a final question on that, because I guess going back to my original question, is the relationship past the point of no return or is that noncommittal of Takahichi perhaps a saving grace?
07:04I don't think that's going to be sufficient for China, mainly because China has such negative perceptions of her.
07:11And we've already seen a number of Chinese media articles say that unless she explicitly formally retract her comment, that any attempts to sort of push the comment under the rug or push it aside or not comment on it will be looked at by China as either trying to deceive China or some articles call it actually strategic deception.
07:33So from Chinese perspective, they want her to retract the comment, anything less than that is not possible.
07:40But I think some Chinese experts might be hoping that she does not have the staying power to be Japan's leader for that long.
07:50So if she does leave, I think that does offer an exit for China to ramp down their comments.
07:57But short of that, with her staying in power and with her, I think, in many ways, understandably not willing to retract her comments, I see quite a bit of escalation ahead on both the Chinese side and then Japan responding and protecting its own interests.
08:13Bonnie Lin, a real thorough investigative report there into the relations between those two countries.
08:17Thank you so much for unpacking that for us here on the show.
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