00:00This is Apropos.
00:03Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado says she's on her way to Oslo
00:08after failing to appear in person to collect her Nobel Peace Prize.
00:12Her daughter accepted it on her behalf.
00:14After threats were made to her life, the 58-year-old,
00:17who was recognized for challenging President Nicolás Maduro's grip on power,
00:22hasn't been seen in public for months.
00:24She rose to international prominence by uniting much of Venezuela's opposition to Maduro,
00:31as Charlotte Hughes explains.
00:34Greeted like a rock star in the streets of Caracas,
00:37she's the face of opposition to President Nicolás Maduro.
00:41Born in the Venezuelan capital in 1967,
00:45Maria Corina Machado gained a degree in industrial engineering
00:48before entering politics in 2002.
00:50That year, she led a referendum to recall then-president Hugo Chávez from office
00:55over what she described as his authoritarian policies.
00:59Elected to the National Assembly in 2010,
01:02three years later she criticized Nicolás Maduro's narrow victory
01:06in the presidential election, alleging the result was manipulated.
01:11Today, a coup d'etat has taken place in Parliament.
01:15Two years ago, Machado won the Venezuelan opposition's presidential primary.
01:19However, the country's courts, heavily influenced by Maduro,
01:24barred her from running in 2024 elections.
01:27Last year, despite saying she feared for her life,
01:30she came out of hiding to join crowds who were demonstrating
01:33against the contested election results.
01:36Now, the Nobel Committee is awarding her for what it describes
01:39as her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition
01:42from dictatorship to democracy.
01:44The Nobel Peace Prize is not only a profound honor for all Venezuelans,
01:52it is a recognition to courage, to the will of our people,
01:57a nation that came together fighting the worst criminal regime.
02:03While she's returned to hiding, Machado addresses her supporters
02:07through social media.
02:09Earlier this year, she claimed victory in Venezuela's parliamentary elections,
02:14although the president's ruling coalition was officially declared the winner.
02:18Having already won the European Union's top human rights prize last year,
02:23Machado is the first Venezuelan to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
02:26Well, to discuss the plight of the Nobel Prize winner,
02:31we're joined by Phil Gunson, the International Crisis Group Senior Analyst
02:35for the Andes region.
02:37Thanks so much for being with us on the programme, Phil.
02:40Remind us first, please, why exactly Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize
02:45and how have people in Venezuela been reacting to that?
02:49She won the prize, essentially, for her achievements last year.
02:56People may remember that in July of last year,
03:00Maduro faced the presidential election once more,
03:04and MarĂa Cúñe Machado was banned from standing.
03:08She's been a long-standing critic of participating in elections,
03:13in negotiating with the government,
03:15saying that the government was clearly not going to stand down
03:18by any sort of peaceful means.
03:21But she decided to take part, despite having been banned,
03:24and her campaigning with the substitute candidate
03:27that she eventually allowed to be selected, Edmundo González,
03:31was crucial in achieving a remarkable victory over Maduro,
03:35which, of course, Maduro, unfortunately,
03:37decided to ignore and to remain in power.
03:41And how seriously has she been taking these threats
03:44that have been made against her,
03:46and what risk does she now take
03:47by coming out of hiding and travelling to Norway?
03:51She says she's going to arrive in Oslo before Thursday.
03:56Yes.
03:57Well, in Venezuela,
03:59MarĂa Cúñe Machado is accused of everything
04:02from terrorism to treason.
04:05If the government decided to catch her
04:09and put her in jail,
04:10or if they were able to do so,
04:11she could basically be in jail for the rest of her life.
04:14And, of course, this is a country
04:16where political prisoners tend to die in captivity.
04:21There have been a couple of dozen deaths
04:25in demonstrations against Maduro's
04:28snatching of the elections last year.
04:30So it's a dangerous place to be a dissident.
04:33And I'm sure, you know,
04:34the security fears that she's been expressing
04:37are absolutely genuine.
04:39And do you think that in light of all of that,
04:40she's likely to try to return to Venezuela
04:43after, you know, visiting Norway and Oslo this week?
04:49She's always insisted that she would remain in the country
04:52and that if she did leave, she would return.
04:55It's absolutely crucial to her political leadership
04:58to be inside the country.
04:59I think she believes, and I think she's right,
05:02that if she were to remain in exile,
05:04then her leadership would gradually fade away.
05:06She would lose relevance.
05:08Of course, the problem is,
05:09will the government allow her back in
05:11if it becomes aware of the method she's using to return?
05:16Will it put her in jail?
05:17It's a complicated issue for the government as well,
05:19because I think they'd prefer to see her remain outside.
05:23They don't want to put her in jail
05:24because that, of course,
05:25could raise her status even further.
05:28But they don't like having her inside
05:29and remaining a thorn in their side.
05:33And do you think, Phil,
05:34that she's been in some ways a controversial choice
05:36for the Nobel Peace Prize?
05:38The Norwegian Peace Council, for example,
05:40declined to hold its traditional procession
05:43to honour the winner,
05:45saying that she didn't actually align
05:46with its core values.
05:50That's right.
05:51It's...
05:52I think it's the timing more than anything else
05:55that has caused this controversy,
05:56because had the prize been awarded last year
06:00for what she achieved last year,
06:02there may have been much less controversy.
06:04The fact is, of course,
06:05that now Maria Corina is very much associated with
06:07and is backing and supporting
06:09the Trump administration's use of military force
06:13to try and oust Maduro.
06:14So it's a little ironic and a little contradictory
06:17that someone who's winning a peace prize
06:19is at the same time backing a military intervention.
06:22I think that's what lies behind the protests
06:25against her being awarded the prize.
06:27And how does that align then
06:29with the views of someone who's seen as a peacemaker?
06:32And what do people in Venezuela actually think of her,
06:36this kind of support that she has been showing
06:38for this Trump offensive?
06:42Well, it's very difficult these days
06:44to talk about Venezuelan public opinion,
06:46because although there are opinion polls
06:48being carried out,
06:49they're not normally made public.
06:51So the only way to find out what the results are
06:55is to talk directly to the people
06:56who carry out the polls.
06:58What I understand is that support in Venezuela
07:01for Maria Corina remains high,
07:03because she's seen as brave,
07:06as being determined,
07:07and as being sincere.
07:09Her credibility has fallen, of course,
07:11because although she achieved victory
07:14in the election last year,
07:15that victory did not translate into political power.
07:18And if the current attempt to oust Maduro doesn't work,
07:23I think that will also be another blow to her credibility.
07:27At the same time,
07:28most Venezuelans inside Venezuela
07:30don't agree in any case
07:32with the violent overthrow of Maduro.
07:35They want to see the back of him,
07:36most of them,
07:36but not by violence.
07:38And Venezuela tonight demanding
07:40an end to illegal and brutal interventionism,
07:44as it puts it,
07:45by the US.
07:47Is all of this going to have any impact at all
07:49on the president of Venezuela,
07:52this kind of Nobel Peace Prize
07:54highlighting what's actually happening
07:55inside the country
07:57and the plight of opposition leaders
07:59such as Machado?
08:03Well, it certainly adds to the pressure,
08:05and it's not a good day
08:07for the Maduro government.
08:09This is putting a spotlight on Venezuela,
08:12on the human rights abuses,
08:14on the lack of democracy.
08:15But of course, it's one day,
08:17and in the next few days,
08:20the story will no doubt gradually go away.
08:23I don't think it will make much difference
08:25to Maduro's intentions
08:27of holding on to power.
08:29And of course, it remains to be seen
08:31whether the Trump administration
08:32is going to achieve
08:33what appears to be its objective,
08:35to see Maduro replaced by,
08:38you know, a government led by
08:39Maria Corina Machado.
08:41Yeah, because Donald Trump again
08:43claimed this week
08:43that Maduro's days in office
08:45were numbered.
08:46He's refusing, though,
08:48to elaborate
08:48when asked
08:49whether or not U.S. troops
08:51are actually going to be
08:52deployed to Venezuela.
08:53Earlier on this evening as well,
08:55he said that a tanker,
08:56another tanker,
08:57had been seized.
08:58What do you think
08:59is actually going to happen?
09:01This just continues
09:02to escalate,
09:03and it remains unclear
09:04whether the U.S.
09:06is actually going
09:07to move significantly
09:09in terms of deploying troops
09:11to the ground in Venezuela.
09:13What's going to happen,
09:14do you think?
09:16Yes, I don't think
09:17we're going to see U.S. troops
09:19on the ground in Venezuela.
09:20I think we might see
09:22a bombing raid or two.
09:25We might see some rocket attacks.
09:28I don't think Trump,
09:29I think it's very clear,
09:29you know,
09:30that Trump doesn't want
09:31to get involved
09:31in any kind of foreign war.
09:33He's very nervous
09:35about the idea
09:35of intervening directly
09:38in Venezuela.
09:39But so far, of course,
09:40the waving of a big stick
09:42from a distance
09:42hasn't worked.
09:44And he's up against
09:45this problem now
09:46that if the fleet
09:47simply sails away
09:48and leaves Maduro in power,
09:49then the U.S. loses credibility.
09:52So, you know,
09:53it's a difficult
09:54and dangerous time.
09:57We don't really know
09:58exactly what's going to happen.
10:00There's a good deal
10:00of nervousness
10:02and tension
10:02in Venezuela itself.
10:04And it's hard,
10:05as you say,
10:06to gauge public opinion
10:07currently in Venezuela.
10:08But from what you know,
10:10what is that life
10:11actually currently like
10:12for opposition leaders there
10:14and for protesters?
10:17Well, protesters,
10:19we don't see protesters.
10:20I mean,
10:21since the protests
10:23after the July 2024
10:25presidential election
10:27were put down so brutally,
10:282,000-odd people
10:30were arrested,
10:31held in very,
10:32very bad conditions.
10:33There were still around
10:341,000 political prisoners.
10:36And of course,
10:37a couple of dozen people
10:38actually died.
10:39So it's really impossible
10:40now for the opposition
10:41to call for demonstrations.
10:45Dissent is punished
10:47very severely.
10:49Ordinary people
10:50are not having
10:52a great time here.
10:53This is a country
10:53which has been
10:54for the last decade or so
10:56in a humanitarian emergency.
11:00It's a country
11:00in which 80%
11:02of the population
11:02lives in poverty.
11:04It's very difficult
11:04for people to put food
11:05on the table.
11:06So obviously,
11:06that's what they're
11:08primarily focused on.
11:10Phil,
11:10thanks so much
11:11for that analysis
11:11and for being with us
11:12on the programme
11:13this evening.
11:14That's Phil Gunson
11:14the International Crisis Group's
11:16senior analyst
11:17for the Andes region.
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