Optimism or caution: How to view India-China thaw, Ian Bremmer explains

India Today

The recent warming of relations between India and China should be viewed with a mix of optimism and pragmatism, according to political scientist Ian Bremmer. He suggested that a thaw is in the world's best interest, as these two nations are the most populous on Earth and wield significant economic and military influence in the region. He emphasised that stable relations, improved trade, and increased diplomatic trust between them would benefit global stability. By de-escalating tensions, India and China can focus on diplomacy and commerce rather than conflict, which is a positive development for both countries and the world at large.

Transcript

00:00how hopeful are you of uh the quad summit here in new delhi uh this revival of sco what does

00:08it really mean for quad um i think that the sco it's it certainly has expanded but it's not a

00:17collective security agreement it's not an alliance uh it's it's it's much weaker than the saudi

00:24pakistan agreement that just came about these are different countries with different motivations

00:31you know even the central asian countries you know i mean they they have a much stronger relations with

00:36china russia is very unhappy with that right that's part of the former soviet union so i i don't think

00:43the sco really is very present in the minds of american decision makers thinking about policy

00:53on the global level um i i also would say that the quad is becoming much itself more open to question

01:04um you know in part uh the united states has raised questions of whether they can go ahead with their

01:12commitments to the australians on submarines because they might need those submarines themselves

01:18there's a lot of pressure on japan which helped to make the japanese um uh government fall uh with

01:28the 550 billion dollar commitment of investments that will be directed by the president himself all of

01:34which has to be committed or else more tariffs by the end of trump's term so i would say the quad is

01:43itself becoming more transactional because that is the orientation of the most powerful country and in

01:50the past uh mr brema washington has actively encouraged new delhi to be a counterbalance to beijing in this

02:00region then how do you view uh recent thaw in india china ties and uh will the will you be seeing this

02:08with some kind of optimism or will you be cautious given the nature of how there has been multiple

02:15betrayals every time there has been a photo opportunity of some kind of relationship building

02:22i think a thaw between india and china is in the world's interest these are two countries most populous

02:29in the world almost 1.5 billion people each um they are major marketplaces they are major military

02:37forces in the region um we're much better off if they have stable relations they're not oriented

02:44towards fighting they can engage in trade and diplomacy with each other at a higher level with

02:50greater trust that would be good for the world now it is true that the united states has historically been

02:58concerned um about india uh and wanted india to be more of a counterweight against china um i don't see trump

03:07as focused as much on that today as he was in his first term as biden was when biden was president but

03:15i also don't think that there's much there there okay let's try and sum up this conversation mr brema with

03:23uh with something which has been perhaps on everybody's mind that donald trump's tariffs and

03:29isolation of its allies has led to visible geopolitical shifts there seems to be a global leadership vacuum

03:38which china is moving to exploit then in this scenario where does india fit in uh in what is visibly an

03:47evolving power dynamic well there is an emerging multi-polarity that will become stronger over time

03:56but we're not there yet the world today is what i call a g zero world it's an absence of global

04:02leadership the united states does not want to promote global collective security it doesn't want to lead

04:09free trade it doesn't want to promote foreign aid it doesn't want to promote democracy um and rule of law

04:16but no other country is prepared to take america's uh uh you know sort of space um and china is the

04:25most powerful but it's not capable of doing that um and it knows it so in that environment it's going

04:32to be less globalization less growth it's harder for everybody but some countries are better positioned than

04:40others india is better positioned than others because india is not only a leader of the global south

04:47but it also is an effective bridge with the west very strong relations with japan um pretty strong

04:54relations with australia um and very stable relations functional relations with europe i mean really canada

05:02was the only big problem in the west and that's been resolved somewhat with new prime minister mark

05:08carney um and so that leaves the big questions of china and the united states and it turns out that both of

05:14them are a little problematic um but i'd rather be in india's position than that that of many so-called

05:22middle powers around the world certainly geopolitically india is in better position right now than the

05:28european union for example

05:37you

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