00:00but let's pivot to your world series future here what you got on that let me paint a different
00:05picture so the american league is wide open but i think the wrong team is favored in the betting
00:10market and i think now in particular is the perfect time to jump in so for all of my mlb futures i
00:16rely on the bat x projections made by derrick carty which you can find on fan crafts and i
00:22quote the bat x has been recognized as the most accurate original season-long projection system
00:27in fantasy baseball studies for five consecutive years so if you go to fan graphs and looked at
00:33the projected standings they have a world series projection tab that breaks each team's chances
00:38into a percentage which we then can convert to betting odds the yankees have the most value of
00:45any team sitting at just 12.8 which means the implied odds should be about plus 680 now it's not just
00:51that one i double check use other projection systems and the bat x is actually one of the
00:57lowest atc another really strong fan graphs projection system sits at 13.7 closer to plus
01:05630 the yankees betting odds right now to win the world series are plus 950 so based on that you're
01:12getting about a 300 cent price difference but those are just projections let's actually talk about the
01:16baseball side of it remember the defensive issues a lot of concerns in new york i'm not as concerned
01:22as i was volpe seems to have lost the shortstop role to jose caballero who's a much better defensive
01:28player he has a 130 wrc plus with the yankees with 12 stolen bases in 31 games leads all of major league
01:35baseball and steals with 46 with stanton back dominguez and left doesn't play that much anymore
01:41the outfield defense is judge bellinger and grisham ryan mcmahon now plays third he's in the 87th
01:47percentile of outs above average now ben rice isn't a great defensive catcher but that's where
01:52they're at their weakest an average framer and blocker by the numbers and the yankees rotation
01:57is the only one with two pitchers who have thrown at least 175 innings this year with an era below
02:03315 and max freed and carlos rodon luis heel has found it lately 075 era in the month of september
02:11and cam schlittler has pitched to a 305 era since he came up the yankees have the best wrc plus of any
02:16team slugged the most by a sizable margin lead in slug lead in home runs 254 home runs to the
02:22dodgers at 217 they have the second best run differential only trailing the brewers 25 runs
02:28better than second place red socks bullpen is still a question mark i get it but what team is perfect
02:34right now in major league baseball and the reason i'm going with the yankees you never really find them
02:39when they're undervalued half the fan base doesn't like them the rest of mlb still hates them and jump in
02:44now the rest of their schedule twins orioles white socks and then the orioles they just took two of
02:51three from the blue jays two of three from the astros and two of three from the red socks tough
02:56part of their schedule is done yankees are winning the world series or at least i think it's a good
03:01bet right now uh it's all a moot point because you grew up a yankees fan yes i understand i understand
03:07that i am biased and that's why i wanted to bring all that so if you disagree with that analysis fine
03:13don't take it yes i am a yankee fan it has nothing to do with my bias i'm totally kidding
03:17it's very very strong analysis and the picture is painted and in a wide open american league you have
03:23no idea who's going to get through and at the end of the day it's just seven games all you got to do
03:29is win four before the other team wins four in the fall classic and i'm not saying that you know
03:34it's foolproof that it's a total crap shoot going into the world series but it's a little bit more
03:39matter of chance than you would expect it to be it's not like the better team wins every single
03:43time and you do get to the world series
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