- 4 months ago
In this episode of Newstrack, the focus is on the recent instability in Nepal and its significant consequences for India.
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00:00unstable Nepal a concern for India
00:15ex-Nepal chief justice to lead nation
00:19what Nepal regime change means for India top focus on news track with maria shakir
00:35good evening this is the news track and i'm maria shakir
00:41Nepal may be a small neighbor but its unrest carries outsized consequences for India
00:48the open border of more than 1,700 kilometers means that instability in
00:53Kathmandu is never confined within Nepal's frontiers it spills over into
00:59multiple states which are in India which share their boundary with Nepal for
01:05India the strategic challenge is clear every crisis in Nepal becomes an
01:11opportunity for China whose investments and outreach in recent years have grown
01:16sharper and more political it is a test for India's neighborhood policy at large
01:22where the New Delhi can offer support without interference reassurance without
01:28dominance and strategic clarity without losing sight of the people-to-people bond
01:34that underpins this relationship so tonight on news track we decode what
01:41Nepal's instability means for India's strategic calculus first of the story
01:47and then I bring in the guests
02:00normalcy is slowly returning to Nepal after violent clashes left the country shaken
02:07streets that saw anger and arson are quieter today but the underlying
02:13discontent with the political class remains unresolved for India this
02:18episode is a reminder that Nepal's turbulence is not just a neighbor's affair
02:23it has direct implications across the border each crisis in South Asia has a way of
02:31spilling over testing India's diplomatic bandwidth and regional influence afghanistan
02:38remains under taliban rule
02:46Sri Lanka is still nursing the wounds of its economic collapse
02:52Bangladesh is gripped by political unrest
03:03and now New Delhi now finds Kathmandu caught in freshly instability but beyond the immediate
03:10unrest there is a deeper political undercurrent taking shape
03:14Amid growing buzz around Nepal's former chief justice
03:21Sushila Karki as the interim leader pick among Gen Z another name is also gaining traction
03:27The rise of Balendra Shah Kathmandu's 35 year old firebrand mayor is being watched closely
03:36Shah a rapper turned politician has built his appeal on raw populism among Nepal's youth
03:43He even installed a map of greater Nepal in his office in an apparent counter to the mural interpreted
03:50as a Khand Bharat or unified India installed in the new parliament complex in Delhi
03:56The possibility of Shah emerging as a national force raises questions for New Delhi
04:02Could he become another Eunice in the wings a leader propelled by anti India sentiment altering the trajectory of bilateral ties
04:11For India its neighbourhood is part of a larger pattern and arc where every shift has consequences for New Delhi's security economy and influence
04:24Bureau report India today
04:26And joining me first on the show is left from General Atta Hasnan
04:31We also have former diplomat Veena Sikri
04:33General Hasnan beginning with you how do you assess the strategic implications of the current unrest in Nepal
04:40Particularly regarding India's security and regional stability
04:44Maria thank you very much for inviting me for your program
04:49Let's get into it straight away
04:51Any region you need stability to make progress
04:56Without stability you will always find terminals spilling over into our territory and everyone knows the nature of the South Asian subcontinent
05:11It is essentially Indo-centric
05:14That's a term I learnt a long time ago
05:17Basically catering for the fact that we have populations spreading on either side of the border
05:22Similar populations in all the regional countries which exist in our area
05:29And so Nepal is a very very important country
05:32But we have been experiencing for example Sri Lanka 2022
05:362024 Bangladesh on which Mrs. Sikri will speak much more
05:41After this 5th of August that happened
05:44And this particular incident
05:47The last two days in particular actually has shocked most of us
05:51Because it's come really out of the blue completely unprepared
05:56So in Bangladesh we still have some kind of indicators to say
06:02Okay, there was an issue of democracy
06:04There was an issue of pushback by those who were not happy with the fact that elections
06:09In elections parties had been banned twice or thrice
06:13Here it was something out of the blue suddenly
06:16And to that extent also the levels of violence which have been seen here
06:22It seems that a deep amount of preparation had probably been gone into
06:28They chose their targets extremely well
06:31This is all classically from any political scientist's point of view
06:35How a revolution must, you know, progress in a given frame of time
06:41That's exactly what we are seeing in Kathmandu in the last two days
06:45So it's worrisome because we haven't seen the end of it yet
06:48It's still going to progress further
06:50The army doesn't seem to be completely in control
06:53On the first day I would have expected that the police may have run away
06:57But the army should have been much better in control
07:00But they were not
07:01And it seems that that's a very awkward kind of a thing
07:04Which we are looking at at the moment
07:05Okay, General Asnan, is there a risk of external actors
07:09Perhaps using this unrest to further destabilize in, you know, Nepal
07:15And how should India then respond strategically in the short and long term?
07:20See, Maria, we are moving through such awkward times
07:25I needn't even have to reiterate that
07:27We know that there are eyes from different parts of the world
07:31Which are impinging on India
07:33No one wants to see India progress the manner in which we have progressed
07:37In the last 10, 12, 15 years
07:39And therefore any such opportunity
07:43We saw it in Bangladesh
07:45You see the manner in which Pakistan moved in immediately
07:49The exploitation by the ISI
07:51A level of exploitation by the Chinese
07:54Everywhere we have been witness to it
07:57Here early yet to say what may happen
08:00But obviously when there is turmoil
08:03When there is instability of this kind
08:05Then everyone's eyes are on it to see the opportunities which can arise
08:10And therefore we would be naive to deny that this kind of a thing cannot happen here
08:16And before I let you go, General Asnan
08:18A word on the close association that has been there between the two armies
08:23The Nepalese army and the Indian army
08:26Yes, it starts from the fact that
08:28Every time we have a chief of the army staff in India appointed
08:34The first country that he visits is invariably Nepal
08:39He always goes there and he is anointed virtually by the Nepalese government
08:45The head of state of Nepal
08:47And with an honorary generalship of their country too
08:52And this is something which is similarly done in India for a chief of the Nepalese army
08:57So this is a very close relationship
09:00Besides that it extends into the fact that we have
09:03Well, a very large number of more than 40 units of the Gurkha rifles in the Indian army
09:10Different types of Gurkha rifles in the Indian army
09:12Some of the best recognized soldiers from all over the world
09:16Who are reputed all over the world
09:18So this is a very deep relationship which goes on here
09:22Unfortunately, I hope that it does not happen
09:27This should not act as some kind of a measure by which there is a cleavage
09:32In this kind of a relationship
09:34Because it is this relationship which stands
09:37All the pressures which may come on
09:40The future of Indo-Nepal relations
09:44All right
09:45General Aslan, thank you for joining us
09:47Let me introduce other guests who are joining us as well
09:50Rose Condale is an economist and activist joining us from Kathmandu
09:54We have Dr. Sarthak Nepal
09:57Who is an eyewitness and an orthopedic surgeon
10:02And SD Muni is an author
10:05Ambassador Sekri, what are the major diplomatic challenges that you are seeing right now
10:11Particularly with almost a consensus of sort emerging with regards to former Chief Justice of Nepal's Supreme Court
10:21That is Sushila Kharki
10:23She is of course the first woman CGI of Nepal
10:26And her stand vis-Ã -vis India is still not clear
10:30You know, unlike, you know, Balin Shah
10:35Who was seen as an anti-India voice
10:38We do not know the political thought or leaning of Justice Karki
10:45First of all, I think that we have to say that the situation in Nepal
10:52Is certainly very worrisome for India
10:54And even in the 48 hours that we have seen the situation, you know, go to this high stage
11:00Strong parallels are being drawn between what happened in Bangladesh
11:04Yes
11:05And what has happened in Nepal in the last 48 hours
11:07And I think that this is a very worrisome factor for India
11:11You just spoke about, you know, Balin Shah and him being
11:15You know, for the last 24 hours his name was being talked about
11:18And he was, as you said correctly, known to be very anti-Indian
11:21And also have a map in his office of this, what they call the Greater Nepal
11:25Greater Nepal
11:26Parts of Himachal Pradesh and so on for Nepal
11:29Just as the people in Bangladesh have also shown this
11:32And I think the parallel between the kind of organization
11:35That has been in many ways spearheading this traumatic movement
11:42And also what happened in Bangladesh
11:45These are organizations with no known leader
11:48Although we know what is behind them
11:49But they are no known leader
11:51And they just come up out of nowhere
11:53They are obviously well trained
11:54They have beautiful websites
11:55And they have detailed instructions on their website
11:58Very often in English on what is to be done
12:00Who has to come
12:01In fact, yesterday for example
12:03There were many people, you know, school children in uniforms there
12:06To make sure that nobody would shoot on them
12:09So I think this is the question of external forces
12:14Being involved is a very strong one
12:16And certainly for India this is very worrisome
12:19But I must say that in Bangladesh
12:21Sorry, in Nepal
12:23The chief of army staff has now taken control
12:26That's right
12:27There was a time yesterday, right
12:28Till the late evening
12:29When it did not look at all that there would be any kind of control
12:32And the situation was extremely volatile
12:34The kind of vandalism, the kind of looting
12:37And of course the Gen Z group
12:39The Hami Nepal group
12:40The Gen Z Nepal group
12:42These groups which were being talked about
12:44As being the leaderless organizations
12:47That are guiding this event
12:50Were then, you know, overtaken also
12:53Or joined also by other vandalizers
12:55And the army in the beginning were stepping back
12:57But then suddenly the army chief
12:58I think you're quite right about the good relations
13:00That General Aksar then spoke about
13:02Between the Indian army and the Nepal army
13:04And the army chief made a statement late last night
13:07Which was released to the public
13:09Which indicated their determination to control the situation
13:12Yes
13:13That had a great sense of
13:15Absolutely
13:16And I think that is what has changed the situation in Nepal
13:20Unlike in Bangladesh
13:22And I think that today
13:23The decision by the Gen Z themselves
13:25They have a big meeting with about 7,000 people present
13:28And there was some kind of a balloting
13:30Yes
13:31On the mobile phone for this
13:33And they have chosen Sushila Karki
13:35Which I think is a very sensible position
13:37Okay, so let's get a word on Sushila Karki
13:39From SD Muni as well
13:41SD Muni, historically
13:43How does this unrest reflect the long-standing complexities
13:47In India-Nepal relations
13:49And what a shift are you sensing in the entire South Asia
13:55Do you foresee in the coming few days and months?
13:58Well, I think there are two, three questions you've lumped together
14:02To begin with, Sushila Karki is a very independent-minded, objective and courageous justice
14:13She proved herself to me
14:15She took positions against the government
14:17She took positions which were very independent
14:20And I think her maturity at a mature age
14:26As compared to the youthful rashness which you see in Balanshah
14:32He is also very popular
14:34He is also independent
14:35He has also been critical of the government
14:38But there is an element of rashness in the solutions which he supported
14:43At one stage he even said
14:45That Singh Darbar is so correct that it should be put to flame
14:50And you know, these are kind of extreme
14:53So I think personally
14:55Nepalese would prefer
14:57The mature Nepalese
14:59Would prefer Sushila Karki
15:01And I think she is a good candidate
15:03Now, so far as the regional situation is concerned
15:08The focus is on three changes which have taken place
15:11In Bangladesh, in Sri Lanka and in Nepal
15:14There are a few similarities between them
15:17One is of course the spontaneous rising of people
15:20Mostly led by the young people
15:23In Sri Lanka
15:25It was JVP in Bangladesh
15:28That is one thing
15:29Secondly, ouster of what was perceived
15:32What is being perceived
15:34As the pro-China regimes
15:36Because in Bangladesh
15:38For us
15:39Hasina was not a pro-China
15:41But from American perspective
15:44It was a pro-China regime
15:46In Sri Lanka
15:47Raja Paksh is a pro-China regime
15:50And only is being considered as pro-China regime
15:53So this is another similarity which is very much there
15:58Now, violence took place in all the three situations
16:03But maximum violence has taken place in Nepal
16:06And this is where Nepal has gone much ahead of Bangladesh
16:09In terms of destruction of Republican systems
16:15Republican icons and all that
16:18So this being there
16:19There is a natural tendency to suspect
16:22That there is no doubt
16:25That the basic foundation of uprising in Nepal
16:29Is local, is national
16:31It was disappointment and frustration
16:34Vis-a-vis the government
16:35Corruption, inefficiency, nepotism
16:38Whatever you call it
16:39But that fire has been fueled
16:42A bi-vested interest from outside
16:45Is a possibility
16:46You cannot rule out
16:47I am not saying
16:49We don't have an evidence
16:50Concrete evidence
16:51But this is something
16:52Which you cannot rule out
16:54And that is visible in the pattern
16:56In South Asia
16:57In Bangladesh
16:58Right
16:59In Sri Lanka as well
17:00Okay
17:01Dr. Sartak
17:02As someone who is there on ground in Kathmandu
17:05What is the general sense like
17:08That is this normalcy
17:09Or some return to normalcy
17:11Can you say that right now?
17:16Actually the army has now taken over
17:18Yesterday and 10pm
17:21And the curfew is in place at the present as well
17:24And at the moment there is no protest happening
17:29And everything is under control of Nepalese army
17:32And they have done it in a very nice way
17:35So are the shops open?
17:36What about the hospitals, emergency services?
17:40Hospitals are open, yeah
17:42Even in the time of crisis the hospitals were all open
17:46We did operations in the patients who came in the emergency department
17:52As soon as possible
17:54And you know
17:55The shops are opened in the early morning
17:58And in the early
18:00In the evening as well
18:01So that we could
18:02We could gather some goods
18:03And you know
18:04Eat in our home as well
18:06So I think
18:07The situation is coming into control
18:10But I think
18:11The most important thing
18:13Is to have an interim government
18:15And to have a president
18:18Or the prime minister
18:20Who will help us to lead forward
18:24And get the election
18:26As soon as possible
18:27In about 6 to 12 months time
18:29Yes
18:30That is I think
18:31The most important thing at the moment
18:32And sounds like you know
18:33What initially started as a Gen Z protest
18:35Had a lot of you know
18:37Commoners and the citizens of Nepal joining in
18:41So it became a citizens protest
18:43Not only led by a particular demographic
18:45Which was of course in a particular age bracket
18:47Yes
18:48For someone like you
18:50Is this name
18:51Justice you know
18:52Sushila Karki
18:53Is that a favourable name?
18:55Do you also extend support to someone like her?
19:01Of course
19:02Our Chief Justice
19:04Ex-Chief Justice
19:05Sushila Karki
19:06Is very good
19:07You know
19:08She is
19:09She has done a commendable job
19:11During her tenure as well
19:12And she is
19:14Seen as one of the potential leaders
19:16But I would say
19:17The Gen Z community
19:19Has also come up with
19:21Balendra Shah
19:22Who is an excellent mayor for us
19:25At the moment in Kathmandu
19:27He has done a commendable job
19:28And he has led to a lot of you know
19:31Prosper
19:32Prosper
19:33He has helped Kathmandu
19:36In prospering in a lot of aspects
19:38In culture
19:39In building of things
19:41And everything
19:42He is a young youth
19:43And he comes in our generation
19:45The millennial generation
19:46Though not Gen Z
19:47But I think
19:48He is a good candidate as well
19:51But according to
19:53You know
19:54Knowledge of the law
19:55And order and everything
19:56Sushila Karki
19:57Is a good candidate as well
20:00Let me bring in Rose now
20:01We'll have to see
20:02How things turn out
20:03Rose this is a question
20:04To an economist in you
20:06Is Nepal's economic relationship
20:09With India now sustainable
20:11Amid this crisis
20:12Or is there a noticeable
20:14Perhaps a pivot
20:16Towards China by local actors
20:20After this protest
20:22I think
20:23After this protest
20:24Before this protest
20:25All of our diplomatic ties
20:26Have been
20:27You know
20:28India has been
20:29One of our
20:30One of our
20:31Treated as one of our
20:32Best friends
20:33And our neighbouring country
20:34Who have supported us
20:35In endearing times
20:37And who you know
20:38We've often looked up to
20:39So I don't believe
20:40That there will be
20:42Any form of changes
20:44In terms of diplomacy
20:46I believe that
20:48What's been happening
20:51Historically in Nepal
20:52Will be repeated
20:54However
20:55Given the crisis
20:56I do think
20:57It might
20:58Halt
20:59I believe
21:00It's obvious
21:01Math
21:02To you know
21:03Given the situation
21:04Of the crisis
21:05Things will be halted
21:06For a while
21:07It wouldn't
21:08I don't believe
21:09That it would be halted
21:10Just for India
21:11I think it would be halted
21:12For every single country
21:13Given the constraint
21:15In the resources
21:16And the pause
21:18In economic activity
21:19Post this protest
21:21So you are sensing
21:23Business as usual
21:24After the protests end
21:25And there is an
21:26Interim government
21:27In place
21:28Yes
21:30After the meeting today
21:32With the Gen Z protesters
21:34And activists
21:35We have come to a consensus
21:38To put Ms. Karki
21:40As our interim leader
21:42Interim leader
21:43Who I believe
21:44Will take the diplomacy ties
21:46That we have been working with
21:48For you know
21:49For decades
21:50With India
21:51And I don't
21:52I don't sense
21:53Any sort of differences
21:54Based on the
21:55Based on the leadership itself
21:57All right
21:58Thank you so much
21:59Thank you so much
22:00For joining us
22:01Rose Kandel
22:02Ambassador Sikri
22:03Dr. Sartak
22:04NSD Muni
22:05On this broadcast
22:06Of course
22:07This is a developing situation
22:08In Nepal
22:09A story will continue
22:10Track very very closely
22:11That's all from me
22:12On this edition
22:13Of the news track
22:14Thanks so much for watching
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