00:00hello and welcome as india and pakistan are at loggerheads and
00:30the developments every passing minute every passing hour is making a headline it is imperative it is
00:36important to note what india is doing and what are the repercussions and why india is taking those
00:43steps obviously it is harming pakistan and ways in ways more than just one and many would say that
00:53war is a solution men would say that an attack is a solution but before that the diplomatic offensive
01:00that india has started is also something that is hitting the hitting pakistan where it hurts the
01:06most to decode the matters to understand the impact the long-term impact of the steps taken by india
01:15today we are joined by mr atul aneja he is a foreign and strategic affairs expert and also a senior
01:22journalist mr aneja thank you so much for taking time out from on india you're welcome paket thank
01:28you sir uh mr aneja first things first the much talked about uh suspension of the indus water
01:36treaty it's not just a punitive measure but a signal of a new strategic posture not uh in within india
01:46and pakistan but also in south asian region how do you see this how big a step do you consider this
01:52i think it's a very big step punkage and a step which is going to have very long-term implications
02:01uh obviously uh the indus waters treaty is exceptionally important to india but given
02:12the reliance of pakistan on it i think it's more important to to pakistan than
02:18to india because 80 percent of the waters uh of the six in this six rivers of the indus basin
02:26uh three of them are you know moved to in the direction i i are for uh providing uh
02:35waters to pakistan and which is uh ravi sattalaj and bias are to are for india so on the pakistan side you
02:43have the indus you have the jellum and the channel and uh so but if you see the water flows you find
02:52that uh uh around 80 percent of uh of the indus waters uh india gets about 4.1 41 billion cubic meters
03:04per annum and pass that by 99 billion cubic meters to pakistan so obviously pakistan alliance is much
03:12more on the indus waters uh its agriculture is very very dependent on these waters uh about you know
03:2361 percent of pakistan's population depends on the industries the electricity for example the
03:30tarbila dam mangala dam which is to provide power it comes from here uh so it's it's critically
03:38dependent uh pakistan is critically dependent on these waters uh and so that's taken by by india
03:47of putting the indus waters treaty in abeyance i think that's very important right that you're not
03:53advocating you're not walking up from the treaty but you're suspending the treaty
03:57right because of circumstances which are not in the spirit of the indus waters treaty when it was
04:04negotiated before 1960s uh so so that's why the step is potentially very very important uh right
04:13right yeah absolutely absolutely mr and uh given the fact that uh it is pinching pakistan right from
04:22the announcement and they are terming it as uh an act of war this uh tells uh the gravity of the
04:28situation and the importance of uh the whole indus waters uh talking about uh uh you know there's
04:36these actions militarily and diplomatically do you see global powers especially the west uh finally
04:44finally reassessing their engagement with this uh if i may say terror exporting pakistan well
04:51it's it's not that the west has realized it first time i mean i remember as a as a journalist with
04:56the hindu i covered the kargil war in 1999 and in there was a very strong intervention uh by the
05:04americans at that time yes yes please stop at war and i think their intervention went a long way
05:12a significant way to see the withdrawal of pakistan-backed forces or pakistani troops themselves
05:18from that so it's not that they're not aware of the terror element into it but i think partly
05:26why the rest of the world looks at this region when tensions flare is because both indian pakistan
05:32and nuclear weapon powers and everybody wants a war between nuclear weapon powers because you know
05:39that's off the table and nuclear war so that's why the the the amount of attention to any flare-up of
05:46tensions between india and pakistan because the nuclear dimension attracts the
05:51west and the rest of the world uh very very deeply apart from that is also the fact of the modi
05:59administration in india uh which has been has a reputation of taking forceful actions you saw what
06:05happened uh in the boat airstrike you saw surgical structures cross-border strikes and and that adds another
06:12element to it uh punkash of why the world is very very concerned i wouldn't say even the west uh the
06:19russian president vladimir putin has come in very strongly against the terror attack right even the
06:25chinese have condemned it so you know it's it's it's sort of 360 degrees in when it comes to condemnation
06:31uh of this india has grown uh punkash from what it used to be i'm talking no no no thereafter you know
06:41it's uh after the g20 summit it's sort of playing on the global uh sort of playing field now
06:49uh and therefore stature has has risen much more economies has has grown we are now more than four
06:58trillion dollar economy the potential is huge india is a major pivot in a multipolar world it's a major
07:05pivot in the global system and i'm not surprised uh because the attention this has this has drawn
07:12from the world community absolutely not just uh the west and as you rightly mentioned russia um even
07:20the gulf countries where prime minister was uh in saudi arabia when this happened and uh lo and behold
07:27all the adjoining countries also have expressed solidarity talking about just coming back to that the
07:34gulf countries is important i think that all of them have contemplated unequivally and even countries
07:42like jordan and kuwait and you know they're all very clear on which side of the fence they are i think
07:48that's very but i think there's one more significant element if i may add i think that the kashmiris
07:55themselves is something of a game changer to me because i have covered hazard 93 and otherwise and you
08:01know the situation were very very different in that time i mean the it used to be the entire hillside
08:06is ablaze there would be these videos from moss blaring in the night you know the anti-india
08:12sentiment is so strong and today what's happened after the palgam incident is that kashmiris in
08:18openly against terrorism and i think this is a this is a fantastic change a very very very profound change
08:26which has taken place uh pankaj apart from the international opinion i think
08:30once once you can start a local movement against terror in kashmir i think that is a huge game
08:38changer frankly pakistan has lost the plot uh over here i don't think they expected such a reaction
08:44coming from kashmiris all right absolutely and uh our correspondent there on the ground in pahal
08:51has sent us those visuals and for the benefit of our viewers we will be playing it uh on this show as
08:55well where uh the business houses the small traders are actually uh coming together they are giving
09:02slogans hindustan humara hey thank you so this you are right i mean if uh since you have mentioned it
09:09and i think uh in retrospect then um i think in my 20 years of career in tv haven't seen that haven't
09:16seen that sir no it isn't it is unprecedented and i think this is one big takeaway from otherwise a
09:22very tragic story but if there's a there's a pivotal shift in the valley then this terror game is over
09:30and i can well imagine that you know we are in the threshold of kashmir getting integrated with the rest
09:35of the country with the tunnels coming up you know you all have the zojila tunnel coming up you have two
09:40others coming in landak is getting connected trains are going to start we see the
09:44char bridge already there so the integration of kashmir with the rest of india is going to be a
09:50game changer and frankly once that happens uh pankaj then i'm not sure how people in pok are going to
09:58react what's what dynamics over there if you see kashmir developing and and and prospering
10:06i think then probably we don't need to send our horses to to do the job you know people themselves
10:13would i just i mean anything can happen in that part that geography uh in terms of the anti-pakistan
10:21sentiments which are already there we know semblance of that coming up but i think with with the with
10:27the valley integrating fully with with india uh the sentiment is i'm certain that the sentiment the
10:34pro-india sentiment is going to come over there and frankly pakistan has lost the plot here you know
10:40you know you're you're in this kashmir battle of hearts and minds it's already you can see what's
10:45happening in the valley i suspect this spread further and then uh pankaj if you have this new
10:53tide developing in favor of india how are those seeking independence in in from from pakistan let's
11:00say in balochistan or in sindh going to react i think there's a full new dynamic which has started
11:06with this incident and i would suspect this is going to unroll for a long time and there are
11:13various dimensions you're going to get added to this and we are my hunch is we are getting we are
11:19on the cusp of a very very fundamental change in south asia and specifically in kashmir obviously with
11:27the uh you know significant steps like uh indus water treaty from the pakistani side that they might
11:33be revoking or already have revoked the shimla agreement good for them and uh other than the
11:40visa bans atari check post uh has been uh closed so all these things definitely are uh hinting towards
11:47a major shift uh by a policy shift i would say not just within india and pakistan but also in the
11:54south asian region so one final question uh mr ninja i was uh um hoping to ask you um
12:00um the concept and the issue of uh hindus being targeted uh as a journalist uh when you and i look
12:10at it then obviously it's the uh eyewitnesses account that matters the most and all of them
12:16have mentioned that this was the barbaric act which was uh uh carried out after checking the faith the
12:24religion of the victims how do you see this how what does this tell about that the hindus were
12:34targeted it's been happening you know happening in bangladesh it's happening here itself it's a very
12:39deliberate uh ploy to do that i think they're trapped here as well uh because you know if you
12:47from a national angle you look at in the religious angle you know your anger gets directed in terms of a
12:53religious divide then i think we will be losing the plot because what the what the perpetrators
12:59want is a much deeper divide communal divide between indias and that is the that is not all for that
13:06we should not fall because that is a recipe for a big uh social divides and even from their
13:12perspective breakup of india's you know you so we have to stop this temptation from looking at it
13:18though recognizing that this is a fact hindus need protection i'm not saying that but it is a national
13:26issue i don't think we should fall into into any act or thought which can create divisions within india
13:34because that we need unity at this time of all patriotic forces of any faith and and and and not a
13:42communal divide which is what these terrorists want to drive drive absolutely mr ninja you in the same
13:50breath you mentioned uh you know the kashmir of 90s the charade sharif incident and uh um
13:58much akin to what was the situation there that when uh the loudspeakers would say go back leave your
14:05leave the land or stay here or die obviously kashmir cannot afford and cannot go back uh to that time
14:12and uh do you believe that the steps that the government is taking as of now in all due uh interest
14:19of the situation uh is there something that needs to be done more or something that needs to be emphasized
14:25there you see you uh i can't really comment so much into it because the government has inputs which i don't
14:32have sure i think a graduated response a strong firm but not an eject response and that is what we need
14:41because you ought to have a strategy as to what is the end game you want you do is it just a counter
14:50terror game or is are there deeper that that is something which will define your actions now and for the
14:58foreseeable future what is the strategic objective when we look at pakistan that's the that's the key
15:06incremental steps it depends on the situation frankly to be honest uh pankaj we talked about this
15:12waters treaty but you know in this waters treaty right now we cannot block the waters there is no
15:20i am here to block the waters right um all when it's in evidence what we can do is of course the
15:29quota which is to be available to india that we need to sort of get the entire quota earlier we were
15:35not we would giving part of that to pakistan so that's one uh we have the option of of carrying forward
15:42the the hydroelectric projects on the western rivers which are allowed under the indus
15:47uh river treaty provided there are no dams made to block the waters run off uh the flow of rivers that
15:55you can build hydroelectric projects like the kishin ganga is being done and a couple of others
16:01uh so you know you get the options of that during the abeyance period
16:08but if things go south uh you can graduate but it's a long-term option to be honest
16:14now if you were to really you know a situation arises when you squeeze pakistan and put pressure that
16:21is actually from the naval side i mean it seems to be drastic right now but military you know one
16:27thing which will pinch without going in for an all-out war for the nuclear dimension but suppose there were to
16:36be a blockade of karachi entire lifeline export import
16:42impacted could that be an option or that be an extreme option that's the government has to consider
16:47but there are a range of options uh pankaj which are available and i think we should look at our goals
16:55the idea is to eliminate uh terrorism permanently and what's the best way to do that that's and what is the
17:03strategic goal i think this is this is what will define uh the the concrete tactical steps uh which
17:12the government will will is bound to take for to be honest i don't see india reacting forcefully to
17:19such a huge provocation it should not should not in any way uh you know it can't be 2008 kind of
17:26situation when we had the mobile attacks and we did nothing i mean that's this is this is i think that
17:33phase is over now now the question is that they can have to in promote india's court national interest
17:41and uh whether it it looks spectacular whether it's long term whether it is covert i mean that's a
17:48which which which uh the government uh with all the inputs that only the government has has to decide
17:54absolutely absolutely mr thank you so much for actually speaking to one india sharing your
17:58thoughts and insights there and um the whole world is uh watching what is transpiring between india and
18:05pakistan and yes once and for all this uh terror headache must go away uh because kashmir in its full
18:14glory and bloom uh should not be depriving its own residents of the time that they cherished for that
18:21they wanted for the chosen democratically elected government there and now suddenly this dastardly
18:28act is committed thank you so much mr manager for speaking to one india we'll be in touch thank you
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