- 6 weeks ago
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00:00Hey, Matt in San Jose. Thanks for calling. What's up?
00:06Fellas, good to talk to you guys.
00:07Matty.
00:10So the Kyle Shanahan thing, I think he's doing a little reverse psychology.
00:15Because if you remember back in 2020, he didn't give the fans and the media much of anything in regards to who he's going to take.
00:21But then they make this huge trade where they go and move for the number three pick.
00:26And everybody thinks that Smack Jones, here we are a few years later.
00:30Who would have thought we actually have Smack Jones on the roster and Trey Lance is not in the league?
00:33But, man, so you have all these reverse psychology factors Shanahan likes to put in.
00:39Maybe he's just trying to kind of alert people like, yo, expect low.
00:43And then punch you in the mouth next thing you know, here they are in the Super Bowl.
00:48Maybe, maybe.
00:49And, yeah, Matt, just to let everybody know who maybe is just joining us, here is the shorter clip, Sirius XM, with Kyle Shanahan talking about expectations.
00:59It's hard to kind of say that you're rebuilding.
01:01Because you've got guys there who can't carry you.
01:03But in the NFL, it doesn't matter how good those stars are, you've got to have the right type of team.
01:07And we know we've got some young guys that haven't done it yet.
01:09But that's what's so big about this year.
01:11That's what's so big about camp is we're finding out a lot about these guys every day.
01:14And it'll be interesting who ends up being a part of our 53, which to me is more open now than it's been in about six years.
01:20But even on day one, that's not going to be it, like week one.
01:24I expect our team in week 12, week 13 to look a lot different than it did in week one.
01:28And my whole goal is that we get better throughout the year and find a way to hopefully get into those playoffs.
01:32And once you get into those playoffs, then you've got a chance at anything.
01:34I mean, I just, yeah, Matt, I'm kind of, and thank you, Matt.
01:37Great to hear from you always.
01:38I think that there's some strategically placed words in there.
01:44Like, I don't want to say that we're rebuilding.
01:47Because you never can be rebuilding in the NFL.
01:50Yeah, well, and because we've got a bunch of future Hall of Famers on our team.
01:53So I don't want to say that we're rebuilding.
01:55At the same time, I've got no idea who's going to be on my roster.
01:58Final 53, who knows?
02:00Good bet that whoever's on it won't be for more than about six or seven weeks.
02:04That's going to keep evolving.
02:05And, boy, fingers are crossed that we can just get better, maybe scratch out a playoff spot.
02:11That's what I'm thinking.
02:13I'm with him.
02:13If I'm the 49ers, I'm not even really saying whether I know for sure.
02:18I think that there's a floor for them that is, I don't know, moderately high.
02:22But there might be a ceiling, too.
02:24We've got a bunch of answers to get.
02:26Health, rookies, how quickly can they get it together and all that.
02:31But, yeah, if I'm him, if I'm the Niners, and I'm looking at the Vegas board right now on Super Bowl odds,
02:37I am not comfortable with what I'm looking at.
02:40At all.
02:41At all.
02:42Well, it's a well-earned reputation because they've gone from bad to really good.
02:47And I'm thinking about the years he was referring to.
02:50And after 2018, when you go 4-12, you drafted Bosa, you drafted Debo, you drafted Dre Greenlaw,
02:56and you come out the next year, and they won their first eight games.
03:00You start out 8-0, you end up 13-3, you go to the Super Bowl,
03:04and Jimmy Garoppolo gave you a 10-point lead, and Kansas City came back to beat you.
03:10But that was coming off a 4-12 year.
03:12And yet, you came out and you beat Tampa and Cincinnati and Pittsburgh,
03:18and teams that probably weren't great, and you had that last-place schedule that you have this year again.
03:23So there are, I think, some parallels in between that year and this one.
03:27I don't know if it was his comments or if it was the injuries in camp or whatever.
03:32There has been an adjustment.
03:33There has been an adjustment to the Super Bowl odds since the last time we talked about it,
03:37which was either yesterday or the day before.
03:40Remember, it was the Bills, the Ravens, the Eagles, the Chiefs, the Lions,
03:44and then the next team after that was the 49ers.
03:47The next team after those top five was the 49ers, and it still is.
03:55But three other teams have joined them in a tie for, what is that, sixth place.
04:03Behind it, and it is in that order.
04:05Right now, those three teams are all co-favorites, the Bills, Ravens, and Eagles,
04:10followed by the Chiefs, and then the Lions.
04:13And then the next teams after that, all tied at plus 2,000 right now,
04:19are the 49ers, the Rams, the Packers, and the Commanders.
04:24Those teams are all even-steven with regard to their Super Bowl odds,
04:29but they are next in line.
04:30So even with that fact, you still look at the 49ers as a top 10,
04:37inside of the top 10 favorite, going into a season where they were 6-11 last year,
04:43and their coach is using words like rebuild.
04:47Like we're kind of, not fully, but we're kind of rebuilding.
04:52And if I'm the Niners, that's probably a little bit uncomfortable.
04:55A little bit uncomfortable to be looking at some of the question marks that they have,
05:01yet knowing that Vegas and the public are thinking about them the way that they are.
05:05But they're not fully rebuilding, and he kind of even said that in the cut,
05:09where you can't be when you've got Christian and Trent and Debo and Fred,
05:13and you've got a quarterback who's about to make $53 million and the rest of it.
05:17So you're not fully rebuilding, and you never fully are in the NFL,
05:20but he does underscore the reality, which is you don't know from, let's just say,
05:26players 18 through 53 who those guys are necessarily going to be.
05:30You don't know who's going to be your starting D lineman.
05:33You think you know now your linebacking core.
05:35The secondary is still a little bit of a question mark based on health
05:39and the safety position, wide receiver as well.
05:43So I think there's a number of different things that he said that are true.
05:47However, you know, I think that it's kind of a classic undersell over deliver
05:52because, you know, the teams you're going to play and the amount of talent you have
05:56and, you know, the system that you put out there.
05:58And last year, 6-11, you are what your record says you are,
06:02but the metrics would show you that you probably should have had a better record
06:06than what you did based on how you actually played.
06:09Well, I'm even tracking this if you look like through the last couple of weeks.
06:12Doesn't it feel like what we heard Kyle and Robert Sala saying about some of these
06:17rookie defensive players?
06:19If you go back two weeks ago, they're like, dude, these guys can play.
06:23They're like, I mean, Mikel Williams, he's long and he's got a huge reach
06:28and he's a really tough matchup and he's this, that, and the other.
06:32And then this last week, here's Shanahan saying, well, hopefully we can get better
06:37and get into the playoffs.
06:39Here's Sala being like, yeah, I mean, it might be midseason.
06:43It might be next year, quite frankly, before we really, really get something
06:48that's seasoned from those guys.
06:51Listen to Sala.
06:52He's talking about his rookie defensive tackles.
06:55We may not know who they are until the midway point of the season.
06:57You know, the rookies, as soon as we hit week one, it's going to start all over.
07:01They're going to be leaning on new bodies, new blocking schemes,
07:03and they've got to learn week to week what they're putting on tape
07:05and understand that part of the game that's happening in there.
07:08So right now, you just want to see those guys play as hard as they can,
07:10as violent as they can, and you trust that as they get more reps,
07:14they'll learn how to play the game a little bit better and get better every day.
07:17Two weeks ago, I couldn't stop talking about how C.J. West
07:20and Mikel Williams are just dominating people in practice.
07:22Interesting switch.
07:23And now, I mean, it might be week nine before we know who the hell these guys are.
07:28By the way, really quick, speaking of C.J. West,
07:30we know Mikel Williams dealing with a hyperextended knee.
07:32C.J. West also hyperextended his knee at practice today.
07:35Oh, fun.
07:36Yeah.
07:36That's exciting.
07:39Great.
07:41Viva Las Vegas.
07:42There you go.
07:42Well, I mean, football's dangerous.
07:44Yeah, football's football.
07:46And you get into it two days from now in an actual game,
07:48so I don't know who they're going to play.
07:50Have they made that determination yet on how they're going to approach offensively,
07:54who's playing, who's not playing?
07:55No, but Kyle Shanahan did say earlier today that he wants to play Purdy
08:01in some of the starters, and he expects to.
08:02He's just not sure exactly who and for how long.
08:05Okay.
08:06Okay.
08:06So no definition on that.
08:08And Guy Haberman, by the way,
08:10who right now is doing play-by-play for the 49ers preseason games,
08:16is going to join us here in 17 minutes.
08:18Awesome.
08:18So we'll get some of those answers from Guy,
08:20because he's out there in Vegas getting ready for all of this.
08:23Yeah, in just a couple days, the big preseason game number two.
08:26It used to be the third,
08:27and hard to believe that they used to have four of these things.
08:30I know.
08:31Some teams had five if you were in that Hall of Fame game.
08:33Oh, that's right.
08:33Yeah.
08:34And pretty soon we're going to be down to two.
08:36Once they're able to expand to 18,
08:38we'll be down to just two preseason games.
08:39You think so?
08:40I think that's the way that it goes.
08:41You might be right.
08:42You give every team two buys.
08:43You go to 18 weeks.
08:45You end with the Super Bowl on President's Day weekend.
08:48That way everybody gets the Monday off,
08:50because we all cry about that in January.
08:52Oh, the Super Bowl, the day after, should be a day off.
08:55Certainly don't want to make it about us,
08:57but wow, I wonder.
08:59I wonder how the sports media world will handle,
09:03yeah, Monday's a holiday.
09:06Well, Tuesday we still talk about it.
09:08We're going to need you to be here, actually.
09:10Totally.
09:11We're going to need you to be here.
09:12Good point.
09:13Day after the Super Bowl.
09:16Giovanni in Richmond is next up on Willie and Dibby.
09:19Hi, Giovanni.
09:20What's up?
09:22Hey, how are you guys doing?
09:23Big fans.
09:24I listen to you guys all the time.
09:27Hey, I was on earlier.
09:29I've seen you guys saying the Niners might go 7-10.
09:32What just makes me think that I think they're going to do better than that
09:34is the easiest schedule in the league.
09:37Who?
09:37And the injury to Stafford in the division.
09:40I could see them winning 10, 11 games
09:44and being a sneaky team in the playoffs.
09:46Giovanni, when you said you were on earlier
09:47and guys were saying 7-10,
09:49I imagine you're talking about different hosts on 95-7 the game, maybe?
09:55It could have been.
09:56Yeah, it could have been.
09:56Yeah, definitely not.
09:58That's not the prediction from either of us, at least I don't think.
10:01No.
10:02I don't want to speak for you.
10:03I like 11 wins.
10:05Yeah.
10:05I mean, minimum.
10:06I think 11 wins is very, very feasible.
10:09It's plausible.
10:10And, yeah, it depends on how many of these guys
10:12will stop having hyperextended knees in August.
10:15But I think that if they're young players,
10:18if just half of them step up and are pretty good
10:21and you have ordinary health, not bad health like last year,
10:25then I see a lot of wins on their schedule.
10:27Yeah, Giovanni, I'm with you.
10:28I'm with Dibs.
10:29And I think a lot of it has to do with Robert Sala.
10:32I know that there are injuries.
10:35Then again, hyperextensions on August 14th
10:37do not mean missed games on September 7th.
10:40They do not mean that.
10:42So we'll see about those guys.
10:44But even if those guys are ready, those guys are rookies.
10:46I don't think they're going to put everything on their shoulders for Week 1.
10:51The 49ers will have some people in there,
10:53and they will stop the run better than they did last year
10:56solely because of the presence of Robert Sala,
10:59his leadership abilities, and his abilities to not stay vanilla
11:03and shake it up and try to confuse a quarterback.
11:08And I think that the Niners, most weeks this year,
11:11will play what I would call a confusable quarterback.
11:14Not all of them.
11:16But most weeks, you'll be playing a quarterback
11:18that is either inexperienced or just not a top-shelf player.
11:25Sam Darnold, by the way, I would put in that category.
11:30I think he's a good player.
11:32But he's confusable.
11:33Yeah, that's fair.
11:34You know, Stafford, I think, is outside of that.
11:37I think Baker Mayfield is outside of that.
11:41Maybe C.J. Stroud.
11:42I don't see too many quarterbacks, though,
11:45on the Niners' schedule that are not gettable
11:48if you disguise.
11:50And I think that's what Robert is really good at.
11:52It's the disguise, and it just comes down to the players
11:55being able to execute and being able to go out there
11:58and disrupt like you're talking about
12:00and just thinking about the running backs
12:03that they're going to face.
12:04Because you said the Niners will stop the run
12:06better than they did last year,
12:08and I'm just looking at the schedule
12:09and relating it to last year's rushing stats.
12:12Tampa Bay's on the schedule,
12:14and you love Bucky Irving.
12:16I love Bucky Irving.
12:16He's a good player.
12:17They were fourth as a team in rushing total yards,
12:21so that's going to be a tough test.
12:23Arizona, you had a real problem with James Conner both times.
12:28They were seventh.
12:29Indy was eighth.
12:31Atlanta was tenth.
12:33Yeah, B. John.
12:34B. John's on your schedule.
12:36Bucky Irving, Kyron Williams, Alvin Kamara,
12:40Kenneth Walker twice.
12:43But here's the thing, because all of these teams,
12:46you know, get to Carolina.
12:47Chuba Hubbard's a good running back,
12:49but are these offensive lines able to open holes?
12:54And how are the disguises being picked up, whatnot?
12:58I'm not saying they'll be perfect.
12:59I just know they'll be better than they were last year.
13:01Well, they have to be better than they were last year,
13:02and just by scheme and probably by personnel.
13:06And Fred Warner, playing with a fractured ankle,
13:10was unable to have a lot of clean runs at running backs
13:13because the blockers were able to get to the second level a lot.
13:17So even if he was totally healthy, he was up against it.
13:20But he was playing hampered, and Dre was out all year,
13:24and your other linebacker was terrible, and then he quit,
13:27Devondre Campbell.
13:28So you had all kinds of problems trying to stop the run.
13:30Yeah, no doubt about it.
13:31But I think that this is what good coaches do.
13:35And I believe Robert Sala to be a good coach.
13:38I believe Kyle Shanahan to be a good coach.
13:40And that is that right now they're not just looking for who's good
13:43and who will be in the schedule,
13:45but they're taking notes on a daily basis to think to themselves,
13:48all right, and how can we put what we've got
13:50into their best position to succeed?
13:53And that's why I think that especially coming off of what was really,
13:58let's be real, this was a poorly hatched plan last year
14:02to have Nick Sorensen come in and be the defensive coordinator.
14:06Not ready, kept it constantly vanilla, did not have the personnel to do that.
14:13The personnel to stay that vanilla means that we are just flat out better than you.
14:17And they weren't, not even close.
14:19And so that just takes all of the guns away from the people who are on the field.
14:25Now, by contrast, you might come in and have some inexperience,
14:29but if you can really shake things up and disguise what you're doing
14:34and try to fool quarterbacks and try to fool offensive line,
14:38you're not going to bat 1,000, but you're going to do it sometimes.
14:41And those sometimes are what can turn into kind of game-changing
14:45or at least drive-changing plays, bust into the backfield and get a sack
14:49or create a holding penalty, create a turnover, whatever.
14:53I just, I have all the confidence in the world
14:55that they're going to do a lot more of that this year.
14:57Much more exotic as far as the blitzes.
15:00And you mentioned vanilla and last year,
15:02it was so predictable when they would blitz, which wasn't very often.
15:05They would just bring an extra linebacker,
15:08and you would just blitz with five.
15:10You rarely blitzed with six.
15:12And, you know, Steve Wilks famously blitzed with seven, the zero blitz.
15:16And I can honestly say I'm sort of built for this.
15:18And that turned out to be one thing that kind of cost him his job.
15:22But they didn't do a lot of exotic things defensively.
15:25And they probably should have because you're right,
15:27they weren't man-to-man good enough to overwhelm offenses.
15:31And I also think that's part of playing into the schedule
15:34because you mentioned all these Tier 3 and Tier 4 quarterbacks
15:37you're going to face, guys who are among the confusables.
15:41And if Salah can do that with his scheme
15:43and the defense can get some wins against offensive lines
15:46that aren't that good,
15:47it puts them in a great situation to win.
15:51So, again, listen to this, SiriusXM,
15:54what Shanahan says about this year.
15:55It's hard to kind of say that you're rebuilding
15:57because you've got guys there who can't carry you.
15:59But in the NFL, it doesn't matter how good those stars are,
16:01you've got to have the right type of team.
16:03And we know we've got some young guys that haven't done it yet.
16:05But that's what's so big about this year.
16:07That's what's so big about camp is
16:08we're finding out a lot about these guys every day.
16:10And it'll be interesting who ends up being a part of our 53,
16:14which to me is more open now than it's been in about six years.
16:17But even on day one, that's not going to be it, like week one.
16:20I expect our team in week 12, week 13,
16:22will look a lot different than it did in week one.
16:24And my whole goal is that we get better throughout the year
16:26and find a way to hopefully get into those playoffs.
16:28And once you get into those playoffs,
16:29then you've got a chance at anything.
16:30So listen, there is a little bit of a splitting of the difference here.
16:34I don't think Kyle is just making this up
16:36so that the media hears what the organization wants him to hear.
16:41I don't think that the Niners concern themselves
16:44with what we're all talking about that much.
16:47You know what I mean?
16:48Like, we're not that big of a deal, us fans and media and whatnot.
16:53But I think there's maybe a little bit.
16:56There's a little tinge of like,
16:58let's tap the brakes on we're a Super Bowl favorite
17:01just because of our name and because of our history.
17:04That's not really the moment we're in.
17:07I do lean, though, in almost taking him at face value.
17:12What have we always heard from players
17:14when they play for Kyle Shanahan?
17:16To a fault, kind of a straight shooter.
17:18Like, he'll tell you what he's thinking
17:21and he'll tell you how it is,
17:23even if it's not what you want to hear.
17:25The most recent to mention this was Mooney Ward,
17:28who's now a member of the Indianapolis Colts.
17:30And I do think, largely when we hear him and John Lynch talk,
17:35not always, but largely, that's what's going on with us too.
17:39He's just like, this is what it is.
17:41I'm not lying to you.
17:43We've got a bunch of question marks out there.
17:45He's almost acknowledging what I hear a lot of people say
17:49about this team locally.
17:52I wonder where these Super Bowl odds are coming from.
17:55It almost does feel like it's coming from just habit right now.
18:00It's just habit.
18:01But it's also protection because the Niners are a popular team
18:04in the betting market,
18:04so they're always going to be overinflated in their value
18:08just as a protection from the books.
18:10But the other piece of it is the Shanahan factor.
18:13He's now entering his ninth year.
18:16He's widely regarded as one of the better coaches in football.
18:19It's one of the better organizations in football.
18:21You've got a quarterback who's been a proven winner at times,
18:25a defensive coordinator who's done well here.
18:28I think there's a lot of other factors that lead it to where
18:3110.5 is about, it's a good number.
18:35It's not a slam dunk under that they're going to go 10-7 or worse,
18:39and it's not a slam dunk over that they're going to go 11-6 or better.
18:43Yeah, nothing's a slam dunk in the NFL.
18:46But if you put it at 9.5,
18:47I do think that there's a lot more over bets than there are under bets.
18:50For sure, which is why it's a 10.5.
18:52And if you put it at 11.5, it's probably the same.
18:54Yeah.
18:55So you've got to find that sweet spot, right,
18:57that balancing act of where can you draw the even action.
19:01And I think 10.5 is probably that spot.
19:03That's probably the spot, yeah,
19:04because I could see them going 10-7.
19:08If, you know, if they're not blessed with luck,
19:11if they're not blessed with the bounces,
19:12if they don't get good injury luck,
19:14if they do get good injury luck,
19:16and if a lot of the teams that are on this schedule
19:19play like we think they're going to play,
19:21I could see them doing better than 11-6.
19:24I don't know how quickly this is all going to come together,
19:26but I just know that a lot of the teams that they play,
19:30you should in theory, again, in theory,
19:33if I'm just playing this schedule based on how many times
19:38do you play a team that's in a quarterback crisis
19:41and should you beat that team?
19:44It's not automatic.
19:46It's not.
19:47I mean, they lost to Cleveland when Moody missed that field goal
19:50a couple of years ago.
19:52Who was the quarterback for Cleveland that day?
19:55I don't even remember his name.
19:58Whoever, remember Purdy, like, went on the drive
20:01and Moody pushed it right?
20:02Yeah, yeah, yeah.
20:02It was the game in the rain.
20:04They were 5-0 and then they lost.
20:05It wasn't Spurgeon win, was it?
20:07No, I can't.
20:08This is the point.
20:09They were in quarterback crisis and you lost anyway.
20:11It was P.J. Walker.
20:12There you go.
20:13P.J. Flippin' Walker.
20:14Yep.
20:15Okay, so you don't win those games automatically,
20:17but you kind of should.
20:18You should win at least most of those.
20:20So look at their schedule right now
20:22and how many teams do they play
20:24that are in a current quarterback crisis.
20:27Quarterback crisis.
20:27New Orleans Week 2.
20:29Yep.
20:29100%.
20:31I'm going to say New York Giants Week 9.
20:35Yep.
20:36I'm going to...
20:37Cleveland Week 13 for sure.
20:39What about Carolina?
20:40And Indy.
20:42Indy and Tennessee.
20:43That's six.
20:44That's not a crisis,
20:45but it's a brand new spanking rookie.
20:47Carolina's not a crisis,
20:48but he's about six or seven bad starts away
20:51from them doing something else.
20:53And Chicago is only just a little bit south of this bar.
20:56Yeah.
20:57So, like, yes, there's some debate there,
20:59but somewhere in the neighborhood of four or five times,
21:03you have a quarterback crisis.
21:05So you should do really well in those football games.
21:09So let's say, let's be conservative and say,
21:12okay, well, let's give the Niners four wins there.
21:16That's really conservative, but go ahead.
21:17So now you're playing a 13-game schedule,
21:21and can you just pretty much play 500 the rest of the way?
21:24You would figure.
21:25And if you can, you're in great shape.
21:27Yeah, because a lot of those other games,
21:29well, they're divisional games,
21:30and even the teams that have better quarterback situations,
21:34Tampa Bay is not an overwhelmingly good team.
21:37It's a good offense.
21:38Yeah, they're a good team.
21:39They're a good team, and it's a road game,
21:41but it's still going to be winnable.
21:43Yeah, and Atlanta is playing, I mean,
21:44we don't call it a crisis.
21:45He's a first-round pick, but he's brand new.
21:48He's only started about four or five games in his career.
21:51And then, you know, we're assuming everybody's healthy.
21:55You might be playing some backups somewhere along the road.
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