Here's The Top Contender In California Governor's Race With Kamala Harris Out Of The Race: New Poll

Forbes Breaking News

On "Forbes Newsroom," Matt Taglia, Senior Director of Emerson College Polling, discussed a new Emerson poll on the California gubernatorial race now that Vice President Kamala Harris announced she will not be running for the seat.

Transcript

00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now

00:07is Matt Taglia, senior director of Emerson College Polling. Matt, thanks so much for joining me.

00:13Thanks for having me.

00:14Emerson has some new polling out for the June 2026 primary for the California gubernatorial race.

00:20And when you and I talked about this race back in April, it was a different race because there

00:26was a lot of chatter, a lot of excitement for someone who had not officially jumped into the

00:31race, that person being former Vice President Kamala Harris. She did announce last week, though,

00:36that she is not throwing her hat in the ring. So to start off the conversation, how exactly does

00:41that announcement change things? And Brittany, that does certainly change things. With Harris out of

00:47the mix now, we see that Katie Porter is now the leader of the race, 18 percent. That's followed

00:54by Republican Steve Hilton, who is a relative newcomer to the field with 12 percent. And

01:00then everyone else is under 10 percent. So Kamala Harris being out of the race, that's obviously a

01:07major factor here. It opens it up to really several Democrats. I think Republicans will probably coalesce

01:15around one or a few candidates. We see a little bit of that here with Hilton, but the race definitely

01:21got more interesting as a result of Harris staying out. It definitely did. And when you and I were

01:26talking back in April, it essentially looks like Harris's race to lose. She was the front runner at

01:3231 percent when you pulled her in the race. And Katie Porter was in a distant second at eight percent

01:38there. Where are you seeing Harris's support go? Because 31 percent, that is a sizable chunk of voters.

01:44That is a sizable chunk. And I wouldn't say that Harris's support has gone to any one place

01:51necessarily. We do see that Porter is posting a lead here. And that's specifically among a few

01:58groups. One I'd like to shout out, though, is among the most educated, the folks with an advanced degree

02:05beyond bachelor's. She's earning 35 percent of the vote. That's not necessarily any sort of monolith

02:11there. But that is something that's boosting her. It's surprising, though, that no other Democrats in

02:17the poll are really able to crack that 10 percent mark. Democrats like Villaraigosa, Kunalakis,

02:25neither of them are getting above 10 percent. So, you know, I do think that this field is still open.

02:30I think that there is certainly a window there for someone to potentially break through on that

02:38moderate Democrat side. I mean, remember, we saw polling in New York City leading up to Election

02:44Day that showed Cuomo winning the first round ballot that ended up not happening. We could end up seeing

02:51a so-called moderate Mondani here. And Undecided is winning here by a lot at 38 percent. It's winning

02:59by a landslide. But who is this Undecided helping more? Because I wouldn't say that any of these

03:05California names in the gubernatorial race are necessarily household names. Arguably one of

03:11the most popular is Katie Porter. She's a former congresswoman and she had some viral moments on

03:15social media. But it's not exactly like it was when former vice president was in Harris was in

03:21because she obviously was the only true household name there. Yeah. And right now, I don't know that

03:29the Undecided is necessarily helping anyone. We do see that Steve Hilton is picking up some support

03:37here just by entering the race, I think. He's already winning 30 percent of Republicans. So I think

03:43that that vote will end up consolidating pretty significantly. Like I said, Democrats have some

03:48real choices to make here. And, you know, as of right now, none of these down ballot, these candidates

03:55who are further down in the roster, none of them are really picking up any steam. So Porter has

04:01clearly gained as a result of Harris exiting the race or never entering in the first place. But like

04:07I said, I think there is space here for some of these other candidates. We'll see over the next 10 or so

04:12months. But as these campaigns kick into gear, they're really going to be going after some of

04:17those Undecided voters. And as you said, there are quite a lot of them right now.

04:20To that point that it seems like Katie Porter is one of the only candidates to be picking up steam,

04:26how competitive is this race shaping out to be 10 months out from the primary?

04:34So I do think that this will be a competitive race. You know, obviously, we have candidates of

04:41all parties on this ballot. Once we get down to the top two, you know, I do see a Democrat winning

04:49this race. I don't think it's necessarily competitive for a Republican candidate, barring

04:53a real splintering of the Democratic field. You know, we see in the generic ballot that Democrats

05:00are ahead in California by over 20 points. So, you know, I don't see it necessarily being terribly

05:08competitive for Republicans, but I do see it being competitive for different lanes of Democrats

05:14and independents. And that could mean that it could come down to the issue. So I am curious,

05:20what are some of those top issues facing voters in California?

05:25And as usual, Brittany, the economy is the top issue. It's at 30 percent. Next, we see housing,

05:32which, you know, I think really ties in with the economy here. 19 percent. Immigration at 15 percent.

05:39And then threats to democracy at 13 percent. Now, I will say that economy number is down from 40

05:46in April and immigration is up a bit, about seven points from April as well.

05:54We also see that housing is much higher in California. That that number of those folks

06:00who say that housing is their top issue, that is much higher than it is nationally.

06:04I think some of that is to be expected in California. But I think that's worth shouting

06:10out. And also, we see that folks in their 60s, that is their that is one of their top issues.

06:16They are the most likely to say that it is their top issue. You know, take that for what you will.

06:23But clearly, there is a major housing and economy issue in California.

06:29And so while the economy is number one, I think an issue that could really go hand in hand there

06:34is President Trump's tariff plan. He unveiled tariffs. He's threatened, paused, restarted

06:40a trade war and trade wars really with dozens of nations since he began his second term. And just

06:46this week, the reciprocal tariffs on dozens of nations officially went into effect. So how do

06:52voters in California feel about these tariffs?

06:54And as you might expect, in a fairly democratic state like California, it's about three to one of

07:03folks who say that tariffs are a tax on the consumer versus a tax on foreign countries. So folks clearly

07:12are not seeing tariffs. It's something that is necessarily punishing other countries solely,

07:19but they see it as something that they're going to feel more at home. And as you might expect,

07:26there is very much a partisan split there. Democrats believing that it's a tax on the consumer

07:30while Republicans see it as more of a tax on foreign countries.

07:35And you mentioned that in California, immigration is also one of the top issues. And earlier this summer,

07:41back in June, protests broke out in the L.A. area over workplace raids by ICE. And this sparked

07:47national demonstrations. But in response to these protests in L.A. and really against Governor Newsom's

07:53wishes, President Trump deployed the National Guard to California. And Newsom called to the move in a

07:59quote, illegal militarization of Los Angeles. And he subsequently sued the Trump administration.

08:04How do voters in California then feel about President Trump's immigration policies?

08:08And, you know, not to speak of, you know, the Trump administration's overall immigration policies,

08:16but folks in California do not overall think that the deportations, mass deportations are a good

08:24thing. Sixty percent say that they are a bad thing. That's about equal with when we asked that question

08:32in April. So we don't see much of a change there. Forty percent say that it's a good thing. As you might

08:38expect, again, Democrats overwhelmingly say that it's a bad thing. There is a 60-40 split among

08:45independents. So just about lining up with that overall average. But even a fifth of Republicans

08:51say that it's a bad thing. So this is certainly not a slam dunk policy in California. But we've seen

08:58nationally that this is one of the issues where folks aren't necessarily super comfortable with how

09:04the Trump administration has handled deportations. It's one of his lower polling issues and policies.

09:12You know, we've we've seen that nationally and we've seen that individually in some of these states.

09:16And we've seen Governor Newsom in the past couple of days inject himself into another national story.

09:24Republican lawmakers in Texas, we've seen, are in the midst of leading an aggressive redistricting effort.

09:29They're trying to pass a redrawn congressional map that if it were passed, it could potentially flip

09:34five seats from blue to red in the House. Governor Newsom said that if that goes through,

09:39he will retaliate. He will fight fire with fire. Those were his words. And he would redraw

09:45the California congressional map. What do voters think about that?

09:49So this was interesting. Thirty three percent support redrawing the California congressional map,

09:59twenty five percent opposed. But the plurality, forty two percent, they aren't really sure one way or the

10:04other. So I do think that this story has broken through to some degree with the electorate.

10:09But folks aren't necessary. You know, again, this is not an issue where it's a slam dunk for either side.

10:16I will say, however, Democrats are by and large, by and large, support the policy,

10:24the proposal to redraw California's maps. But even twenty eight percent of Republicans are in support.

10:31They are overall opposed to redrawing the maps. But I do think that there's some nuance here.

10:37I think there's probably a little bit of confusion among the electorate as to what exactly this means,

10:41what exactly it would do. So these were interesting results.

10:44I think if we gave it a little bit of time, if they do end up holding a special election

10:48to determine this, then we might see these numbers shift exactly how. I'm not sure.

10:55It really does seem like Governor Newsom and President Trump are real adversaries.

11:00As we said earlier, Newsom did sue the Trump administration.

11:04Trump is super critical of Governor Gavin Newsom.

11:07I'm curious how their approval ratings stack up in California.

11:13This was also very interesting. So Governor Newsom right now, 44 percent approved, 38 percent disapproved.

11:20That is a major improvement since we last tested this in April.

11:24So in April, he was at 33 percent approved, 42 percent disapproved.

11:28So that's a negative 11 rating overall.

11:32So I do think that some of this more pugnacious rhetoric that we've seen coming from Newsom,

11:40I think that that actually is helping his image.

11:43And I think that some of the things that he's doing right now, it's resonating with voters in California.

11:48You take a look at Trump, on the other hand, he's at 30 percent approved, 58 percent disapproved.

11:54That is nearly the same as April, very slightly worse.

11:58But I think we're seeing the effects here of, you know, two forces up against each other.

12:05And the voters in California overall, they are siding with Governor Newsom.

12:10And that's really interesting because over the past year or so, maybe less than a little bit,

12:16Governor Newsom has, you know, we've seen two Governor Newsoms.

12:19One, someone who's attempting to make inroads with conservatives, talking to Charlie Kirk,

12:25talking to Steve Bannon on his podcast, seeing where they can close the gaps a bit.

12:30Then you're seeing this Governor Newsom who's coming out swinging at President Trump

12:34and the Trump administration and other Republicans.

12:37People have said that this could be him laying the groundwork for a 2028 presidential run.

12:43In California, is there appetite for that?

12:45I mean, who do they want to see in the race in 2028?

12:49Yeah, I certainly think that groundwork is being laid.

12:53That's fair to say.

12:55And in California, Newsom holds a lead in the hypothetical Democratic primary ballot for

13:02president.

13:0323 percent support Newsom, 17 percent for Buttigieg and 11 percent for Harris.

13:10Everyone else is under 10 percent right now.

13:13So I think that there is appetite.

13:14This is a stark contrast, however, to April when we asked folks whether they're

13:19they think Governor Newsom should run for president and 60 percent said that he should not run

13:25for president.

13:27Now, again, that was asked of the entire electorate, not just Democrats.

13:31But it is interesting to see that despite the fact that folks didn't believe that he should

13:37run for president.

13:37Now he's in the lead in California's presidential primary area if he does indeed step in.

13:45And we know that California has been a reliably blue state.

13:50What about a generic congressional ballot?

13:52How are Democrats faring there?

13:55And Democrats are faring well as far as the congressional ballot.

14:00Fifty four percent would choose a hypothetical Democrat versus 32 percent for Republicans.

14:07That's a really sizable margin there, about 22 points, 15 percent undecided.

14:14Democrats also have a narrow lead among independents with 33 percent versus 28 percent for the hypothetical

14:20Republican candidate.

14:22And I think we'll probably see this shift a little bit as we get closer to the 2026 midterm

14:28election. But I also don't anticipate that it will drop significantly below a 20 percent

14:33margin, nor do I think it will be close to that 30 percent.

14:38Well, Matt Taglia, there's certainly a lot to look out for between now and the June 2026

14:44primary. And I know and I hope that you and I can talk about it as we get closer and closer.

14:49And I hope that we can talk about other races as well.

14:52Matt Taglia, I always appreciate our conversations.

14:54Thanks for joining me.

14:55Thank you, Brittany. Happy to be here.

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