New Poll Has Very Good News For Democrats In 2026: Roy Cooper Might Pick Up NC Senate Seat

Forbes Breaking News

On "Forbes Newsroom," Matt Taglia, Senior Director of Emerson College Polling, discussed a new Emerson poll on the 2026 North Carolina Senate race.

Transcript

00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is

00:07Matt Taglia, Senior Director of Emerson College Polling. Matt, thanks so much for joining me.

00:12Thanks for having me, Brittany.

00:14Emerson has some new numbers out about the North Carolina Senate race for 2026.

00:19We are still more than a year away. But as of right now, what is the state of the race?

00:24Well, the state of the race right now is that Cooper has a slight lead, but it is a significant

00:32lead. So 47 percent for former Governor Roy Cooper versus 41 percent for Watley, the Republican

00:41challenger, with 12 percent undecided. So Cooper is posting a slight but significant lead here.

00:48And so, you know, there is obviously still time. There are obviously still some undecided folks out

00:53there, but Cooper is in a decent spot right now. I'm curious, why is Cooper in a decent spot right

01:00now? We know that he is the former governor. Watley is the RNC, one of the RNC co-chairs.

01:05Why is Cooper ahead? Because as we know, back in 2024, Donald Trump won the battleground state

01:13of North Carolina. That's right.

01:16He did win. But Cooper was a relatively popular governor for the state of North Carolina.

01:23We also saw that Josh Stein won the state in 2024 and is now the sitting governor.

01:30So right now, Cooper leads among independents by about 19 points.

01:34He leads with voters under the age of 50 by about 25 points.

01:40But I think the real story here, as far as why Cooper is ahead, is that favorability number.

01:46So when we look at the favorabilities, we see Cooper has 51 percent favorable versus 33 percent

01:52unfavorable. That's really high. So he has a majority who have a favorable opinion of him

01:59in the state. That's 53 percent among independents, even 27 percent among Republicans.

02:05So a quarter of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Cooper. You look at Watley, on the

02:11other hand, he's at 17 percent favorable, 16 percent unfavorable. 66 percent have no opinion

02:19of him or don't know him. So that is the real number here. Folks just don't know who Watley

02:25is necessarily. And that could absolutely change. Obviously, as the campaigns wrap up, he'll introduce

02:31himself a little bit more to the state. But as it stands, he's at a real disadvantage

02:35without that name ID that Cooper has. I mean, that's a huge number and a huge hurdle to overcome,

02:43right? Sixty six percent of people not knowing who you are in that state compared to the former

02:48governor. I want to talk, though, about that undecided block. I mean, how much do they matter?

02:53How much will they move the needle on this phrase? You know, they will matter.

02:58I will say 12 percent undecided is relatively low for being this far out. You know, remember,

03:05this is going to be in 2026, November 2026. But 12 percent of the electorate, that's not

03:11a huge chunk. So Watley is really going to have an uphill battle here fighting for those

03:17undecideds. I think among those folks who are undecided, most of them probably don't have

03:23any idea who he is, despite being the former chair of the RNC and the former chair of the

03:30North Carolina Republican Party. He still has some work to do there. But there are definitely

03:36winnable folks out there. This isn't over. But, you know, all else being equal, I would certainly

03:42rather be Cooper. And North Carolina is an interesting state, right? President Trump won by about three

03:49percent back in 2024. But there is now a Democrat governor who has just sworn in, Governor Josh

03:55Stein. So I want to talk about how North Carolina voters feel about each. First, start about President

03:59Trump. What's his approval rating in North Carolina?

04:04And Trump is just about split here. 46 percent approve versus 44 percent disapprove. You look

04:11at independents, and it's a little bit more stark, though. 47 percent versus 33 percent who disapprove.

04:18Looking at Stein, 41 percent approve, 25 percent disapprove. And then about 35 percent don't have

04:27an opinion. But that is a really high number for him. You know, he's got nearly a 20-point lead

04:32as far as approval. And among independents, we see 36 percent approve, 18 percent disapprove. So

04:39the Democratic brand is certainly not toxic in North Carolina. There are Democrats who have been

04:46elected statewide, who hold office statewide. And right now, they have a positive approval rating.

04:53And that's especially good news if you're Roy Cooper running for the Senate. Someone who is not

04:58running for re-election is Senator Tom Tillis. He's a two-term North Carolina Republican. That was

05:04supposed to be a really tight race. What is his approval rating there? Does North Carolina like him?

05:13Yeah, and it's a little unfortunate for Tillis here. He's at 30 percent versus 43 percent who have a

05:20negative view of him. That's 41 percent negative among Republicans versus 35 percent, 43 percent

05:28negative among independents. So, you know, unfortunately for Tillis, you know, this is a

05:34case where he really made nobody happy. I think it would have been a real uphill battle fighting for

05:41re-election here. And so he's going to be leaving office with a low number. But it looks like he made

05:49the right decision. And like you and I have talked about for really the past over a year now,

05:55the top issue facing voters heading into the 2024 election was the economy. And North Carolina was

06:02one of the battleground states. Actually, all of the battleground states in 2024 ultimately went to

06:06Trump. But that state was red in 2024. And the economy continues to be the top issue facing voters.

06:14How do voters in North Carolina feel about their financial situation now?

06:18You're right, Brittany. It has been an issue. It continues to be an issue.

06:24Thirty eight percent of North Carolinians say that the economy is their top issue, followed by

06:30immigration. I'm sorry, threats to democracy at 19 percent, which we've seen a trend of both

06:37nationally and individually in some of these states. And then immigration and health care, both at 10 percent.

06:44Drilling down a little bit and looking at folks' personal finances,

06:47I said 40 percent say that their finances are worse now than they were a year ago.

06:53Twenty eight percent say that they're better off. And then 32 percent say that it's about the same as a year ago.

06:59Voters over 60 are most positive here. Republicans are also more positive by about 12 points,

07:06as you'd expect. This is partisan. Democrats say that they are overall worse off than they were a year ago.

07:13And then independents also say that they're worse off by about 20 points.

07:19And I also want to look ahead even further now, because you and I, if you can believe it,

07:23have already been talking about the 2028 Democratic primary as well as the Republican primary.

07:29When you asked Democrats and Republicans in North Carolina,

07:32who are they supporting for the presidential primary leading up to 2028?

07:36Right. Yeah. So we'll start with Democrats. And Pete Buttigieg leads here.

07:43Seventeen percent. Harris, Kamala Harris at 12 percent.

07:48And then Governor Gavin Newsom at 10 percent.

07:51All others are at less than 10 percent with 24 percent undecided.

07:56As you said, it is very early. But we see that Buttigieg does worse among Hispanic voters and black voters.

08:03He does best among white voters and Asian voters. We've seen that trend somewhat across the country.

08:10And we definitely see that in North Carolina, where there is a higher percentage of black voters than in a lot of other states.

08:16That's something that could ultimately end up hurting him in, say, South Carolina and some of the Super Tuesday states.

08:24But again, it's early. We're speculating a little bit. But we can see that data trend is continuing here.

08:30Looking at the Republican primary, it's sort of the same story as we've talked about before.

08:34We see J.D. Vance at 53 percent and then all others are less than 10 percent.

08:40So once again, the field has sort of cleared for J.D. Vance.

08:44He appears to be the heir apparent. But again, things can change rapidly.

08:48Obviously, 2016 was a very different story between 2015 and then ultimately in the primaries in 2016.

08:59There was things changed very quickly and very drastically, too.

09:04So this is sort of the first real open contest that we've seen in quite a while.

09:09So I do expect things will change. But right now, as it stands, Vance is in the top spot.

09:15And as things change, I hope you can come back on and break down the numbers with me.

09:20Matt Taglia, per usual, thanks for joining me.

09:23Thank you, Brittany.

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