- 5 months ago
In this edition of the Democratic Newsroom, the focus is on US President Donald Trump's tariff threats against India for purchasing Russian oil.
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00:00Good evening and welcome to yet another edition of the Democratic Newsroom.
00:20We come in exactly about 24 hours after we learned that India has been slapped by an
00:26additional 25 percent tariff by an executive order of the President of the United States
00:31of America.
00:32What does it really mean?
00:34Is it an adversity, an opportunity and the big question, did India misread Trump?
00:40And that's the question we're going to be discussing with our band of editors.
00:44Joining me, consulting editor Rajdeep Sardisai, we have Akshita, we have Geeta, we have Siddharth
00:49Zarabi, we have Gaurav Sawant and we've left this chair empty right next to us because we
00:54are going to teleport my colleague and our correspondent all the way from Washington, Rohit Sharma, who's
00:59been tracking all the developments in the United States of America.
01:03So we leave it at that.
01:04But Rajdeep off the bat, let's begin with you.
01:06Did India misread Trump?
01:08Of course we did.
01:09I mean, let's, you know, let's not kid ourselves.
01:12And I think this misreading doesn't start with what's happened in the last six months.
01:16I mean, the fact is this whole bonhomie, this personal chemistry that was built during Namaste,
01:22Trump and Howdy, Modi and Aapki Bhaar Trump Sarkar, which is now Aapki Bhaar Tariff Sarkar.
01:29I think it was a classic case which can happen where optics and personal chemistry take over
01:34the diligence that is sometimes required of diplomacy.
01:39The truth of the matter is that Donald Trump has no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent
01:43interests.
01:44He has no real love for either Narendra Modi or an Elon Musk.
01:47And I think in February, when Mr. Modi went to reach out to Donald Trump, I think he thought
01:52that Trump 1.0 or Trump 2.0 would be very similar to Trump 1.0.
01:57Trump 2.0 is very different.
01:59He is pursuing an agenda, to be fair to Trump, that he's been pushing for the last 30 years
02:03when it comes to tariffs.
02:04If there's one consistency, if you look at Trump's statements, it's in his belief that
02:08tariffs work against America's interests in the way which they've been framed.
02:12So I think we got that wrong, we got it badly wrong and I think at some stage we should
02:16admit it.
02:17We thought personal chemistry, that will be enough, it won't work.
02:21But having said that, I think in the last 10 days we've got it right.
02:25Because we have realized that just as personal chemistry doesn't work, personal animosity won't.
02:30So when the opposition says, why aren't you taking on Donald Trump?
02:33I think the government has got it right, been calm and measured about it because some things
02:38cannot be played out in public.
02:40You can't play on ego all the time.
02:42I think Donald Trump is a self-obsessed man, who's obsessed with himself and I think we've
02:48realized that much too late.
02:49For much too long we got carried away with the optics.
02:52Now we've realized that you're dealing with someone who is truly mercurial, who is unpredictable
02:57and can do anything he wants.
02:59And rather than confront him, I think we've got to fight or even play up to his ego, which
03:04we thought was the way out.
03:05I think we should resort to what diplomacy was meant to, quietly, silently, behind the
03:10doors, hopefully achieve a trade deal September, October.
03:15So I think, I think we've learned our lessons and there's been a useful cost correction in
03:19the last week, 10 days.
03:20All right, Gaurav, vein quickly, we'll go to Siddharth Zavrabi, Dangeeta.
03:23I'll vein as much time as Rajdeep gets or do we get half the time?
03:26Why would you get half the time?
03:27There's a tariff on that.
03:28You usually get more, but go ahead.
03:30So if there's no tariff imposed on that, you're not allowed to complete your point.
03:37No.
03:38You know, every country acts in their national interest.
03:42Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whether it was Namaste Trump or Howdy Modi, I covered both,
03:46one in Houston, Texas, the other in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, was keeping India's national interest
03:51in time and at that point of time, American interests with India have kept us in good stead
03:56every time, whether it's a counter terror cooperation, whether it's a strategic partnership, whether
04:00it's military to military relationship, India-America relationship.
04:04And this is a relationship which I have covered from the time when there were sanctions post-Pokharan
04:09to the Kargil war, to the next step in strategic partnership, to the civil nuclear deal.
04:14Every government, whether BJP or Congress, Democrat or Republican, they've invested in this relationship
04:21and it's held both countries in great stead.
04:23As far as Donald Trump is concerned, did India misread Trump?
04:26No, the whole world misread Trump.
04:28Look at how he's treated his allies and his strategic partners.
04:32You know, more than rhetoric, let's go by numbers. European Union, NATO countries, 27 members,
04:3950% tariff threatened, 15% imposed and EU is investing $750 billion, $600 billion investment
04:47by 2028 to mitigate the tariffs. Do we have that kind of money to invest in America? No, we don't.
04:52Japan, it's a treaty ally, 24% tariff on goods, 25% on cars and parts, 15% baseline tariff.
05:00Japan, incidentally, is a treaty ally. And Japan, US has bases there and this is what they do to
05:06Japan. South Korea, 25% proposed, 15% negotiated. South Korea, again, a treaty ally where they have
05:12military bases, very important to counter both North Korea and China. And yet, Donald Trump does
05:17this. So he's not singling India out. You know, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi went in Trump 2.0,
05:23the aim was in good faith, let's engage quickly, let's be quick off the block, let's not waste time.
05:29When Trump 1.0 came, there was nobody to negotiate with him, to interact with him for six months.
05:34You waste six months getting to know the new administration. We didn't want to waste time.
05:38We've learned lessons from the past. We're acting in good faith then and acting in national interest now.
05:43You know, Gaurav, the problem is you always get the best deals, but you cry foul. But what I'm going
05:47to do is I'm going to get in... I don't cry foul.
05:49You just did in the beginning of the show. I want to bring in my colleague Rohit Sharma.
05:54Now you're talking over me, bhai. There is what's the tariff on me. Let me bring in my colleague...
05:59Because I don't make any snide comments. You made it first. You made it first.
06:02I give it back in equal measure. I want to bring... I give it back with interest.
06:05Like I said, you started it, you will get it back. I want to bring it right now.
06:10I want to bring it right now, my colleague Rohit Sharma, who's joining us from Washington.
06:14All right, Rohit. How are you reading the situation playing out in India, back home,
06:21in Washington? What's your inference? Clearly, we did misread Trump. But like Gaurav said,
06:26maybe not just us. A lot of people did. A lot of countries did.
06:31I think a lot of people on the ground treaty, especially when it comes to Indian diplomacy,
06:36have been questioning if they were correct in not investing at the right time with the MAGA
06:41Republicans. Look, this is a completely different Trump 2.0. These are not the same people. You
06:46don't have Pompeo in this. You don't have John Bolton in this administration. You've got people
06:51who are true and totally MAGA Republicans who are running the show. You've got people like Lutnik.
06:56You've got people like Besant. I mean, these guys, you know, were not around in Trump 1.0.
07:01So I think that has to be questioned. I think the fact that there was an assumption,
07:05which I mean, told that some people in New Delhi believe that it was going to be a cakewalk for
07:10Kamala Harris to win and possibly our diplomacy failed there. So somebody has to ask that question
07:15as to what were we reading between the lines or if we were reading properly between those lines.
07:20That's number one. Number two, yes, it's Trump 2.0. Yes, this is a completely different scenario.
07:26He is the variable. He's changed things up. Tariffs, as we're talking about it,
07:29was something close to his heart. He started talking about this, not now. He started talking
07:34about it in 2015 when he was campaigning. He started talking about tariffs and Harley-Davidson and all
07:40that stuff. So he is able to do this because he has the trifecta. He's got majority in House. He's got
07:45majority in Senate. People are behind him. And frankly, he's delivering results. So I think President
07:51Donald Trump thinks he can play hardball because he has the mandate from the people. And he probably
07:56doesn't see India in the same light as probably he would see somebody like China, who's still trying to
08:02negotiate by giving them more extensions after extensions, trying to do that. And also the fact
08:08that he's out with India. There is something that went wrong between last September and June of this
08:13year. And somebody's got to find out what went wrong between the Trump Modi dossier.
08:18All right. You know, Rohit, you stay put right there. I think you've done a fabulous job by bringing him
08:22here from Washington. But Siddharth Zarabi, I want to bring you in with all the questions that are being
08:28asked on what does this mean for India if the tariff is lapped in 21 days?
08:34Well, you know, on the topic really, I think what has clearly happened is that some of the concessions
08:42and the friendly hand that was extended to Trump ever since he came into power, including on earlier
08:48concessions on trade that we have given, have been misread by Trump. And he thought that he can have
08:55his way more and more. And I think he's kind of hit a wall, an Indian wall, not a Chinese wall.
09:02Why did this happen? Was this the right gambit to play? I would argue that one year ago,
09:10you couldn't have gone head to head against Trump. You could not have turned him into your biggest enemy.
09:15Or you couldn't have sort of shown him the thumb that you're showing him today.
09:18That would not have played out in the real world. All of us know that's how it will play out.
09:23On your question, what have we done in the last one year? I would say that there was a
09:31very good understanding within the government, within our trade negotiation, within our diplomatic
09:36hierarchy, that Trump could not be trusted. And that is why, please acknowledge that we have gone
09:44far beyond what we were going to concede to the British in the UK FTA.
09:51The UK FTA should ideally have happened one and a half, two years ago. The fact that we did it in
09:56double quick time, and Geeta will endorse this, we have in fact conceded ground, including allowing
10:02government procurement access to British firms. It's never been done. The second part, if we look
10:08at the EFTA, which is the European deal that we have done with four countries, we have a massive win,
10:15which is overlooked. 100 billion dollars of committed investment signed on paper that those four
10:21countries, including Norway, which runs the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world,
10:26will do for India. So, Priti, in conclusion, our trade engagements in the last one year
10:34factored in the possibility of a Trumpism coming into play. Yet, I must say that the 10 years prior
10:43to that, Modi 1 and Modi 2, were perhaps definitely defined by an attitude that was not pro-free trade.
10:52That has changed. But to say that we misread Trump would be, I think, a wrong remark on the strategic
11:00ability, forget the political class, of the strategic ability of our official system and the steel
11:07of bureaucracy that we have. Geeta, would you want to come in? Because it,
11:11clearly, this is not about trade. This is a bully that is forcing India to make a geopolitical choice.
11:16So, I'll just put a few things in order and let people decide whether if India misread Trump or not,
11:25rather than saying, yes, India did or did not. During the campaign, Donald Trump lauded Prime Minister Modi,
11:34and I keep saying this because it is important for our public, our viewers to know. Lauded Prime Minister
11:40Modi, but in this very same breath said, but India is tough on us and has been tough on us on trade,
11:48and should I come to power, I will make sure that India, I'm paraphrasing, pays for it.
11:55We used the first part. There were headlines of how Prime Minister Modi has been lauded and praised by
12:01President Trump, so on and so forth. Nobody paid attention to the second part.
12:07Donald Trump is walking the talk, whether if it is for his audience or his policy decisions that he
12:14already had in place, in plan. There's an entire set up. He knew exactly, unlike Donald Trump first
12:23term, this time around he was prepared that if I come to power, this is the man who's going to head
12:28my commerce department, this is the treasury secretary, this is what we're going to do, this is the agenda for
12:34the first 100 days. And this was part of the agenda. So, a lot of people, at least policy makers,
12:42should have been looking at it and we still saw a lot of opinion makers saying that he's better than,
12:48or he'd be better than Biden. I didn't think so, I don't think so, that Trump on the trade front
12:55would have been better. How did we deal with him is a different matter. Secondly, there's one very
13:01important point. During the Howdy Modi and the other events that took place, he spoke about
13:08, and he held Trump's hand. This was during Biden administration.
13:16Now, that did not go down well with who? Certain quarters within the United States of America,
13:21including the deep state, who saw it as maybe interference, maybe meddling in America's domestic
13:30politics. But more importantly, that Indian community is a vote bank that can be influenced
13:36by the Prime Minister of India. So, was there a misreading there in terms of how America is going
13:43to look at it and the support base that comes for Trump from the American quarters? This is where
13:49that support base also comes from. Okay.
13:51Are they okay? You know, Rohit is shaking his head. Akshita, can I get on Rohit before I come to you?
13:55Rohit, you wanted to make a point? Well, all I wanted to say was, yes, you know,
14:00the Prime Minister did hold those rallies. And I agree with Geeta, what she said about, you know,
14:04maybe there were certain things to play. But I really do not think him saying that, you know,
14:09Uptibar, you know, Trump's circle would have changed the minds of the voters. Maybe. And like,
14:13if it would have upset somebody, I think it would have upset people on the Democratic side,
14:17not necessarily on the Republican side. But I don't think...
14:20I said the deep state. Rohit, the deep state.
14:24That there can be a vote bang outside that can be influenced by an outside world leader.
14:31Right. So could be, right. But I think, I mean, and just to what you were saying earlier,
14:36right, I think the misconception was that a Trump 2.0 would be better, right? I think
14:40that was the reading everybody thought while India had gone from stent to stent under Joe Biden's
14:46leadership when he was the president. So I think, as I was saying, as I was pointing out,
14:50I think there was some somebody in the diplomacy who did not read it right. And I think they did
14:55not invest in the right time. And it's still happening on the ground right now. As a matter
14:58of fact, you know, we have these, our leaders here in Washington, D.C. who are posting pictures
15:03with Tulsi Gabbard, you know, who are trying to, you know, possibly posting pictures with other
15:08leaders here in the Republican Party, but they're still not able to get to the real people who control
15:14Trump's decision making. All right. Okay. Akshita hasn't had a word in. Go ahead, Akshita.
15:18So just to answer what you started off with, Preeti, about, you know, whether we've misread
15:22Trump, I think nobody can essentially read Trump. But given the current situation,
15:26I definitely think India's handled the current situation very well. I don't think India was
15:31completely caught off guard with the announcement of tariffs, considering what Gita's also told us,
15:35that Trump constantly spoke about this coming, about constantly targeting India. So I think the
15:40government did see this coming. And how they've responded, look, you can say that, you know,
15:44the fact that 50 percent tariff has been slapped on India is going to affect these businesses and
15:50whatnot. But the reality is that India sent across a message that, look, our interests matter.
15:55And as much as we all, Rajdeep also has raised the issue of Modi and Trump hugging it out,
16:00none of that translating, they're still our ally. At the end of the day, they're an ally. We can't,
16:05you know, say that these photo ops don't matter. Modi and Trump, when you have these Howdy Modi events,
16:10and they hug it out is because U.S. is a strategic, important ally to India. That doesn't change
16:14today. No, not the hug. The Aad ki bar Trump sarkar during Biden. Okay, I'm going to go back.
16:19Hug is part of, you see, my point is, first of all, let's be clear. It's part of diplomacy.
16:22No, no, make it very clear. There's a distinction, first of all, between Donald Trump and the
16:26America and America as a country. India has brought a strong relationship with America, not in 2014,
16:32not when we, when Narendra Modi said, Aad ki bar Trump sarkar. For God's sake,
16:36start giving Manmohan Singh some credit and people, no, no, just a minute. Over the last 20 years,
16:41over the last 20 years, and even Mr. Vajpayee and Bill Clinton, when they were there,
16:47have over the last 25 years, people in both countries have invested deeply in the relationship
16:51between the two countries and that is producing results today. That's the good part of it. Having
16:57said that, my concern is sometimes in the last few years, there has been this over personalization of
17:02diplomacy. That I was his friend. You see, you think, as I keep saying, Donald Trump has no permanent
17:08friends or enemies and therefore, I believe there was a mystery. No, no, we did not recognize. Did we
17:13really believe, is anyone on this table telling me? Just a minute. Does anyone on this table
17:18seriously believe that a Donald Trump would tweet saying India is a dead economy? Let's be very clear,
17:24it's one thing to put tariffs, the kind of language the man has used, which I find deplorable,
17:30frankly. And then to say, I didn't, you know, we got it right, we did. Let's not, it's time to call
17:37a spade a spade in that sense. Donald Trump has said things which I find offensive and our Indian
17:43diplomats should at some stage ask themselves, did we expect Donald Trump to do what he's done? He's
17:49provoked us repeatedly by the kind of comments he makes on Pakistan, by the fact that he invites
17:56Asim Munir for lunch? And are we saying that we got it all right? No, I don't. Come on, come on,
18:01let's get real. Let's get real for a change. This constant belief that our state can do no wrong,
18:06our diplomats can do wrong has to go away. For 20 years we've invested in this relationship,
18:11the relationship is solid. But Trump himself, because your question is, did we misread Trump?
18:16Not America. Not America. We misread Trump. Did we really, I asked everyone on this table,
18:21did you really expect Donald Trump to call India a dead economy? What Trump said, we all agree,
18:28I think everyone on this table agrees that when he says dead economy is simply unacceptable.
18:32My point is this, now if the friendship between Modi and Trump translated to India stepping back
18:37and saying that look, we will go ahead and reach some middle ground on agri on dairy on which we don't
18:41agree on, that's where I'd have had an issue. If our friendship hasn't translated to India conceding
18:46in any way, I don't see what's the point. Our national interest has been kept supreme, top priority.
18:50No, no, but you're not answering my question. The question is, did we misread Trump?
18:55No, no, no. We expected him to call us a dead economy in public.
19:00One second. Okay, Rajdeep, one second. Akshita, I'll circle back to you. Let me, okay, go ahead.
19:05When Trump behaves in a certain way, stop slapping ourselves, we should stop slapping ourselves for
19:10his stupidity. If he's speaking in a certain way, that's his attitude. We are nimble-footed
19:16and dealing with it effectively as best, you know, as we should. What's the question?
19:21What's the question of the debate? The question of the debate is, did we misread Donald Trump?
19:26The whole world misread Donald Trump. That's not an answer.
19:29That is an answer. Nobody can read Trump. Nobody can read Trump if he's behaving in a certain way.
19:34Did you expect him to behave in a certain way with Vietnam? You know what the grapevine is?
19:38He agreed to a certain deal with Vietnam and there's a completely different deal
19:41that has been put forward. Do you know what the grapevine is?
19:43Donald Trump wants some acknowledgement for his role in the ceasefire.
19:46And he has no role to play. He has absolutely no role to play.
19:49No, no, no. Since you mentioned the grapevine.
19:51Yes, yes, yes. Let's go.
19:52So let's also get that very straight. Let's also get that very straight.
19:56Just because Donald Trump wants that we should say, oh, yes, you got us a ceasefire.
20:01He had no, and unless, unless he had a role in getting Pakistan to call us up.
20:07Well, if he does, then that's either for Pakistan or Donald Trump to say.
20:11Then Pakistan should say it and Donald Trump should say it.
20:13India cannot say it. That's why Pakistan is thanking him.
20:15I am not disagreeing with you on that point.
20:17All I am asking you is the question, the central question is, did we misread the man?
20:22Did we think Trump 2.0 would be like Trump 1.0?
20:25That's all I am asking. If you hug him, then you are wrong. If you don't give him a Nobel Prize, then you are wrong.
20:31Either ways. No, no, no. You can't invest so much in personal friendship with someone you know or should have known.
20:38There is hard-nosed diplomacy. That's all.
20:41And if I tell you proof of that hard-nosed diplomacy, it is the fact that your national security advisor is in Russia right now.
20:47The Russian president will be coming to India. Indian Prime Minister will be going.
20:50No, we are not. I am asking you, did we misread Donald Trump?
20:55That's the question today.
20:56Okay, allow me. See.
20:57We would have put all our eggs in the American basket and India did not put all our eggs in the American basket and that's exactly what we've done.
21:03We don't have much time, so I am going to come back to all of you.
21:05You know, we didn't completely misunderstand Trump. We had a certain inkling.
21:10We also had a belief, a self-belief that our negotiators will find a way around America's first exceptionalism.
21:17I think we have to acknowledge that Trump has reshaped American politics, American approach to world trade and he has taken a sledgehammer to everything.
21:33But I would only say that it's not India alone. Every single country including the Japanese don't know what he is up to.
21:41But can I ask you one question? Can I ask him? You tell me. I heard in the last week of July and I was reading the pink papers as well.
21:50Most people thought some kind of a deal is going to be struck by the 1st of August and then we'll have a full-blown deal by September, October.
21:57We may still have a full-blown deal or a good deal by September, October, but clearly there was a misreading, this belief that our negotiators are there.
22:03We were investing a lot. We thought that something was going to happen.
22:06Suddenly the same person with whom you are negotiating then turns out and calls you a dead economy and you tell me there's no misreading.
22:12No one answer. Rajdeep, the file by all available sources was lying on President Trump's of the India deal proposed by the US Commerce Department for a month. He sat on it.
22:28Why? The question is, did Trump misread India?
22:31Okay, that's a fair. Geeta, can I go to Geeta?
22:36That's interesting. We don't have access to agriculture. Should we give him access to agriculture?
22:40No, I want to go to Geeta.
22:41Rajdeep, okay, let's just be fair. Come here. Geeta, go ahead.
22:46No, these were conversations that were going to be had with the United States of America and this is not new.
22:53All through the trade conversations, even with the previous administration, agri-pharma, dairy were always part of the trade conversations.
23:01Not new. What has changed over here are a few things. The world misread, including India.
23:08One has to accept as to what happened on the ground. The world must have misread, but India also did on that count.
23:16There are a few things that have happened. One is that Trump took us by surprise on a few counts.
23:21A few things we anticipated, like there are going to be tough tariff conversations and that is what has happened.
23:29A few things surprised us, which is his flip on Russia. Now, that was unexpected.
23:35His flip on Pakistan? No, no, I'm coming to that. Flip on Russia. That was unexpected because when he came to power,
23:41we thought we were on the right side of history with the United States of America and we've done an umpteen number of shows on just that.
23:49See, Europe got it wrong. We've got it right. We can buy Russian oil. Trump, Putin, our friends, and they understand what's happening on the ground when it comes to NATO.
23:58And we are right in buying Russian oil. There are no sanctions on Russian oil.
24:01No, that aside, that aside. He goes wrong, so why should we start pitting ourselves?
24:04I'm not talking about our position, Gaurav. I'm talking about our reading on Trump. And then he flipped. And now we are having an entire conversation where there could be reduction on oil imports from Russia.
24:17And that's reality because it's not something that was really important or essential to India.
24:22Absolutely, it's coming down. Yeah, it's coming down because it's not essential because we anticipated that once he started flipping on Russia.
24:30And then there's a shocker that comes our way that is situational. Nobody anticipated it because of the terror attack,
24:38Pahalgam, and Operation Sindhu, which is Trump siding with Pakistan. Now, that's a new. It's not like America has not sided with Pakistan. They've always sided with Pakistan.
24:48And if I know it, we went in good faith, you know, Akshita, we went in good faith, we reduced tariff on government, we reduced tariff on Alec David, which we already provided.
24:57Exactly. We went in good faith.
25:0020 seconds, Akshita, I want to bring in Rohit.
25:02More importantly, do we have the inroads into the Trump core team? That's a big question.
25:09Well, you need to buy your way in like the Pakistanis. I don't think we do that.
25:14I want to bring in Rohit before that.
25:23I will only say that looking in the manner in which the timeline that's emerged of what Trump has done, not done, said, etc.,
25:29I do believe, and considering that, you know, he slapped these 50% tariffs, he's setting the room for going ahead and using this as...
25:35Okay, Rohit, you've got the last one minute. Make good of it.
25:40I think one of the things that we have not talked about is, I think we've also become, you know, a prisoner of our own image.
25:46I think no other country has played the perception game that India has played in the last 10-12 years,
25:52especially when it comes to Trump, about the bromance between both the leaders. I think, you know, yes, he's slipped on Japan.
25:58Yes, he's slipped on other countries. But has any other nation played the same amount of bromance that India has played,
26:05and partly including media and diplomats and everybody? And I think that is exactly why we're getting this reaction,
26:10where he's slipped on everybody. But it comes as a shocker to the Indian public, because what they've seen over the years is,
26:16look, we've got somebody out there that we can hug and we can shake hands and we can do all kinds of photo ops.
26:21But now he's turning on India. I think that is another thing that, you know,
26:24We're going to leave it at that. Okay, we're going to leave it at that. We're going to leave it for our viewers to decide.
26:30No, it's okay now. We are done. You keep objecting to the hugs.
26:34One second. Do state you now to the point of the other side. I thought that you got up to use it.
26:41That's not a good enough answer. All right, with that, it's a hard cut. Thank you for joining us.
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