00:00So we are seeing growth for 25% that is revised upward slightly to about 3% for this year from 2.8% in our April projections.
00:08So that's kind of good news. At the same time inflation is more or less on track, so really it looks great.
00:15But as we point out, there are reasons to be very cautious.
00:18The tariff shock is in fact not as bad as we were projecting in early April.
00:23Why? Well, because there have been pauses that have been announced and then there have been some announcement of trade deals with a number of countries.
00:31And we are expecting to see tariff rates that are lower than what we were projecting in early April.
00:37To give you a sense, around 17% for U.S. tariffs on the rest of the world.
00:42Back in April, we were expecting something of the order of 24%.
00:45Businesses were trying to front load, move stuff around before the tariffs were imposed.
00:50And so that's supporting economic activity.
00:53There is going to be payback for that.
00:55If you stock the shelves now, you don't need to stock them later in the year or into the next year.
01:00So we're going to see, we expect to see reduced trade activity down the road in the second half of the year and into 2026.
01:07So that's one of the factors that leads us to be cautious.
01:10So that's what we're going to do.
01:11So that's what we're going to do.
01:12So that's what we're going to do.
01:13So that's what we're going to do.
01:14So that's what we're going to do.
01:15So that's what we're going to do.
01:16So that's what we're going to do.
01:17So that's what we're going to do.
01:18So that's what we're going to do.
01:19So that's what we're going to do.
01:20So that's what we're going to do.
01:21So that's what we're going to do.
01:22So that's what we're going to do.
01:23So that's what we're going to do.
01:24So that's what we're going to do.
01:25So that's what we're going to do.
01:26So that's what we're going to do.
01:27So that's what we're going to do.
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