'Dire': Kyiv badly hit by relentless Russian attacks after abrupt US halt to Patriot defence support

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00:00Great to talk to you as always. Emmanuel Shaz in Kyiv. Let's move to here in Paris. Let's bring in

00:05Samantha de Benderne, political risk analyst, associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program

00:11at Chatham House, also senior consultant for EU-Russia relations at the Conflict Studies

00:15Research Center and previously worked as an advisor in the EU Commission on NATO-Ukraine

00:19relations and as advisor to the first EU ambassador to Russia. Great to have you on the program with

00:25us tonight, Samantha. Just getting news coming in. This is from Reuters news agency saying Russia

00:30has destroyed the power line that connects the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant to the power grid.

00:35That's coming from Ukraine's energy minister. So we're already getting a sense, Samantha,

00:39of the cost of the overnight attacks. Yes, well, that's the first I've heard about the Zaporizhia

00:48attacks. The good news is that Zaporizhia does have generators because it's very important for

00:55nuclear power stations to have a constant feed of electricity to keep them, to have to cool the

01:02reactor down. So let's hope that that's going to be looked into quite fast. Yes, this is Vladimir

01:08Putin. Every time Trump has spoken to him, in fact, there have been increased attacks on the

01:13civilian population. The fact that Kiev was so badly hit is a direct result of the lack of

01:19patriot anti-missile defence systems, which the US have now said they are going to stop delivering to

01:25Ukraine. So things are looking pretty dire for Ukraine right now. And this is all because of

01:31Donald Trump's decisions. Yeah, to which I wonder what you make of the readout. I guess more will

01:37come from this. But the readout we've had so far from Kiev, which seems to try not to downplay the

01:43conversation, say that they are going to work, quote, together to help defend the skies. But there's no

01:48explicit answer, is there, over the patriot missiles, to which the request has not been

01:52granted. And the idea that these weapons, some of which are being suspended, the defensive weapons,

01:58that's going to change.

02:01Well, Kiev has no choice. It cannot criticise the Americans. It cannot criticise Donald Trump.

02:07I had some very high level meetings with Kiev officials two weeks ago, and they were very clear

02:14that their main partner they see for discussions for defending their country are the Americans.

02:20They unfortunately, at this point, have very little faith in the Europeans. So they will continue

02:25trying to sweeten Trump, to sweeten the Americans as much as they can, for as long as they can,

02:33because they absolutely need American cooperation. That is at least their view.

02:38What the Ukrainians do not want to end up with is a situation where they have to have bilateral

02:44talks between Ukraine and Russia without any mediators. Unfortunately, President Putin has

02:50made it very clear that at this point, he wants to see bilateral discussions without anyone in between

02:55to mediate. When you're listening to the conversation a moment ago that President Trump was having

03:01with reporters on the doorstep moment there, talking about the disappointment he had in Vladimir Putin,

03:07I don't remember seeing, I do after criticism after bombings before, but such disappointment

03:12after a phone call, if we go back a few weeks about, you know, waiting to see if he's tapping

03:16us along. This seemed far more explicit, didn't he? I wonder whether you think that's kind of

03:21taking Trump in a different direction, or he's simply too unpredictable to call.

03:27You know, there's an expression that works in Ukraine and in Russia, which is hope dies last.

03:33One can only hope that President Trump will change direction. So far, President Zelensky has done

03:39absolutely everything that Trump wanted. He signed the mineral deal. He actually offered to buy

03:46defence systems. He thanked President Trump. He has bent over backwards to actually please Trump

03:52after the disastrous meeting in the Oval Office in February. He has done everything that was asked for

03:58him. And the result has been to stop sending weapons. So I don't know what more the Ukrainians

04:03can actually do, except maybe just continue flattering Trump and hope that at some point

04:09it will work. If you remember that there was the NATO summit 10 days ago, during which a Ukrainian

04:15journalist asked President Trump if he was going to halt patriot deliveries to Ukraine. Trump seemed

04:22slightly moved. He said, well, you know, we need them as well. We're going to have to think about it.

04:28And the result has been that weapons that were earmarked by the previous administration and had

04:34been approved by Congress were actually halted in Poland and are not going to go forward to Ukraine.

04:40And by the way, Congress is now looking into the legality of that move. Unfortunately, Trump and it was

04:48the deputy of defence, deputy secretary of defence, said the magic word was that these weapons were necessary

04:54through national security, i.e. American national security. And that is the only time in which

05:01weapons that were already earmarked could potentially be repatriated to the US. So Trump seems to know exactly

05:08what he's doing.

05:09We had also, taking us into Europe, this first call in three years with President Macron and President Putin

05:16been talking for two hours earlier this week. Give me your reading on that, Samantha, because

05:20to understand why they decided to suddenly return to those talks, is this about Emmanuel Macron being

05:28aware of the uncertainty increasing over the US and making sure there's a voice for Europe still on

05:34the line there?

05:36I have to say...

05:37I think that, you know, that a lot of people...

05:40A lot of... probably a sort of resentment...

05:46Resentment?

05:47...vis-a-vis the recent decades and the worst...

05:53We're going to go back to Emmanuel Macron. He jumped the gun there, Samantha.

05:56Yes, sorry.

05:57But give me your thoughts on why you think they decided...

05:59He decided to reinitiate the conversation.

06:03Well, I think President Macron doesn't seem to learn the lessons. The lessons are that there's

06:09absolutely no point in talking to Putin. He's just going to dish out the same things that he's dished

06:14out before. Perhaps the takeaway from this call is that Putin's position has hardened compared to the

06:22position that he had three years ago. Maybe that was the one good readout that Macron could take from

06:27this call. But it has not made Europe look any stronger. It has not made Europe look as though

06:33it is capable of taking the lead in filling in the gaps that the Americans are going to leave. If this

06:41call had been accompanied by some firm decisions, more than just going to Kyiv and taking selfies,

06:48which is what European leaders have been doing, actually deciding to do something concrete that goes

06:53beyond words. Planes in the sky, there's an initiative called Sky Shield, which 23 European countries have

07:02been discussing, which would be to help protect Ukraine's skies. Taurus missiles to be released,

07:07the German Taurus missiles to be released. Some kind of real impactful decision followed by a phone call

07:15or proceeding or for that to happen after the phone call. Why not? But to talk, just to hear what Putin

07:23has to say, to be told, basically, we're going to do what we want to Ukraine. I don't think that makes

07:28President Macron look very strong. It does not get a very good impression of Europe. Europe is,

07:34unfortunately, looking more and more like a talking shop, but that has the capacity to act,

07:41but is paralysed by its fear of Putin. The NATO summit looked more like an event in which allies

07:48were more afraid of Trump than they were of the Russian threat. This is what we look like now.

07:53That is a very interesting point. And to which, just going back to the Macron comment as well,

07:58the Macron conversation, I'm reminded of the fact that go back to 2022, the last phone calls he was

08:03having. There was voices from the past, Mateusz Morawiecki, the former Polish president, saying

08:08that if you're going to negotiate with Putin, he likened it to negotiating with Hitler. He saw it as

08:13an extremely bad idea. But let's have a listen back. We can now hear President Macron. This was 10

08:18months into the Ukraine war, in 2022. And he was asked what it was like to deal with Putin when

08:23famously George Bush in 2001 said he looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul. President Macron was

08:29asked what he sees, looking in Putin's eyes.

08:34I have to say, a lot of, probably a sort of resentment.

08:42I have to say, a lot of resentment vis-a-vis the recent decades and the Western world.

08:53And resentment vis-a-vis us, meaning both the US and the European Union, was extremely important.

09:04And the feeling that our perspective was to destroy Russia. I don't believe this is our perspective.

09:14It's never been our perspective in France.

09:16I just wonder how, Samantha, that line said, I don't know if you've met Putin personally,

09:21or those you've advised in the past in dealing with Putin, that reflects what President Macron had

09:26said back in 2022. Actually, I'm just a humble Brit living in France. Who am I to disagree with

09:36President Macron? But I will dip my toes into the water and actually disagree with him. I think that

09:42President Putin, when he looks at European leaders, he feels a mixture of arrogance and disdain and

09:50mockery because he sees how impotent we are. And I'll include the Brits in that and the Europeans in

10:00general. He does not, for him, the only interlocutor who he has any respect for are the Americans,

10:07whoever the president is. He knows that, unfortunately, at the moment, the only power that counts

10:13are the Americans. The Europeans could count. We have a larger population than the Americans. We have

10:19the money. We just need to be united. If we were really, truly united politically, as well as

10:27economically, we could stand our ground and we could defend ourselves. I understand why the Americans are

10:33fed up with defending Europe. I think it's dreadful that they're leaving Europe without really giving

10:40us a lot of warning, although some would argue we've had a lot of forewarning. But I don't think Putin

10:47believes in one minute that Europe poses any single threat to Russia. I think he believes that NATO,

10:54the combined strength of NATO, potentially poses a threat. I think he's convinced himself of that

11:00in spite of the fact that everything that NATO has done has been as a defensive alliance.

11:05And I mean, if NATO has enlarged, it's because the countries on Russia's borders feel threatened.

11:11But I think that when Putin speaks to individual European leaders, I think he's just disdainful.

11:20Is there one upside, Samantha, which is in the last two weeks, the bombing in Iran? From a Ukrainian

11:29perspective, does that mean potentially less Shahid drones, less support for Russia on the battlefield?

11:35Well, there has been a lot of speculation that it would make less Shahid drones. Russia is,

11:42however, producing its own Russian version of Shahid drones in Tartalstan, which is southern Russia.

11:50Interestingly enough, on the day that the Israelis started their bombing campaign into Iran,

11:56the Ukrainians launched a raid on one of the drone factories in Tartalstan.

12:03It could slightly slow down Russia's ability to buy Iranian drones. But unfortunately,

12:12Russia is producing its own. It has its whole economy on a quasi-war footing. Putin has said

12:19he's going to reduce defence spending. But if you look at what is earmarked in the budget,

12:25there is no reduction in defence spending. And that sounds more like a message to try and soften

12:30the Europeans than the reality of what is seen in Russia. For him to reduce defence spending,

12:35he would actually help to modify the existing budget.

12:38And hence the message from Mark Reuter, going back to the NATO meeting over the next five years,

12:42either increase your spending, or if not, prepare to speak Russian, he said. Great to have you on

12:47the programme, Samantha. Nice to talk to you this evening. Samantha, to have been a political risk

12:52analyst and associate fellow at the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House.

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