00:00I'm going to speak now to Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America, U.S., and the Americas program at the Chatham House.
00:07Thank you so much for joining us today, Christopher.
00:10So I remember Ava Morales' rise to power back in 2006.
00:14I know it was, of course, before Obama, but it did seem to have this similar energy and the expectations that people really had about his capability to change things for minorities, to pursue economic justice, etc.
00:26So what went wrong with his rule?
00:30Well, you're right. Absolutely. He's a Amara speaker. He, in a majority indigenous country, he was elected president in 2005, took office in 2006.
00:40It seemed like a new era. But what happened basically was economic mismanagement.
00:44He shortly after taking office, nationalized the country's gas production, which led to lower levels of investment and the point now where they actually have to import gas, import diesel production.
00:56He slow walked the opening up of very rich lithium fields in the highlands of Bolivia and then eventually gave the rights to the Chinese.
01:06So it became a really unsustainable anti-market economy that has led to a drag and a flattening of growth.
01:14The last two years, including this one, Bolivia is only growing at about 1 percent.
01:18At the same time, about inflation is expected to reach about 30 percent this year.
01:23It was 15 percent last year.
01:25At the same time, the government's broke.
01:27They basically created all these anti-poverty programs, which were unsustainable given the declining revenue.
01:33So 20 years, it's been a long time.
01:35It did lead to some important changes in terms of social inclusion, but economically it's failed.
01:41Now, he's obviously not running, but Evo Morales is still very much a part of this election.
01:46What do you think his influence has been?
01:48Has he done more harm or good to the left, in your view?
01:52Well, in this particular case, he's really trying to overturn or question the legitimacy of the election.
01:58As your previous report pointed out, he's calling for people to spoil their ballots or to just not vote.
02:04And if he can get around 20, 30 percent of people who do that, he can claim that this election is not legitimate and that he should be allowed to run.
02:11But I think what really destroyed, if you will, his legacy was, first of all, his own sort of personal ambition, his own sort of autocratic behavior that really didn't lead to profound changes.
02:23But really, he became a personalistic dictator.
02:26There are also these charges that he has had of human trafficking and that he's had relationships with underage girls, which he's been investigated for.
02:36There's credible evidence that indeed that was the case.
02:38So between his inability to leave politics, the stain of potential human trafficking, he's really become very much a marginal figure.
02:46Right now, he's basically an internal exile in Bolivia, is holed up in a camp away from the capital with armed followers surrounding the camp.
02:56He's become, if you will, sort of a vestige of the past.
02:58Now, the economic crisis, as you hinted at, is, of course, a major reason behind what could be a big shift.
03:06But this also appears to be somewhat of a general trend across the continent.
03:11I mean, do you think there's a generalized disillusionment with leftist rule?
03:15And what are some of the specificities with respect to the situation in Bolivia?
03:19How does it fit in to the larger dynamic?
03:22Well, first of all, generally speaking, there's an anti-incumbent mood in Latin America.
03:28Yes, because most of the governments at this time were left or center-left, what we're seeing is a swing to the right.
03:35But generally, it's an anti-incumbent attitude.
03:37If you look at surveys, for example, in Bolivia, 93 percent of people believe the country is either very bad or bad in terms of its current situation.
03:45So, clearly, Evo Morales and his successor, Luis Arce, have failed to deliver.
03:51But across the region, what we are seeing, as you pointed out, is, because of this anti-incumbent wave, more conservative governments coming to power.
03:58In Argentina, it looks likely in Chile that one of the two main conservative candidates will probably win.
04:04The same is obviously true in Ecuador.
04:07And the same is probably true next year in Colombia's elections.
04:10I think what's happening is, first, the anti-incumbent, but in fact, a lot of these leftist leaders who came to power with a great deal of enthusiasm and expectation of their ability to really sort of reduce social inequality and reduce poverty, they haven't delivered.
04:24They haven't delivered in part because they bet excessively on natural resource extraction.
04:28Those prices are very volatile.
04:30And they haven't delivered simply because they broke the bank in trying to deliver more cash transfer programs and really generate formal employment through a market-based economy.
04:39The middle class, I think, is probably the best barometer for the way that an economic situation, in many ways, is playing out in any given country.
04:46Are you able to speak to what life for middle-class Bolivians looks like?
04:51I mean, just to take an example with the United States, the lead-up to the election, there was conversations about inflation, the infamous price of eggs, things like that.
04:58I mean, what are some of the major talking points for middle-class Bolivians in this election, and how might that predict the way that things will go?
05:05Well, it's a good point.
05:08And what we've seen across Latin America also is in the early 2000s, because of the boom in natural resources and their prices, which are the primary exports of many countries in Latin America, we saw a dramatic increase in the middle class.
05:21Across Latin America, about 50 million, 60 million people joined the ranks of the middle class, having left poverty.
05:27What we're seeing now is because of inflation, because of fiscally unsustainable government programs, that middle class, many of them have sort of slunk back into poverty, which is unprecedented and has created this sense of frustration and even anger.
05:43In the case of Bolivia, with the two leading candidates, Tutu Quiroga and Samuel Doria Medina, they're both, especially Samuel Doria Medina, he's a businessman.
05:52It gives a sense that he can get things done.
05:54And I think right now, having gone through 20 years of a center-left government, having a businessman who has experience in getting things done, turning a profit, turning around a corporation is particularly appealing to Bolivians.
06:07As a final question for you, I mean, you may have maybe partially answered it there, but what are some of the major changes that the centrists and right-wing candidates are proposing?
06:16And do you think that it's more their ideas that are convincing voters or disappointment with the left?
06:21I mean, in other words, are we seeing kind of a lesser of two evil situations, or is the country getting increasingly conservative ideologically?
06:28It was funny you should say that, and I have thought to myself many times, you know, 20 years ago, we all thought Bolivia was shifting just en masse to the left.
06:38And it really had, up until then, even before the election of Evo Morales, it really did skew center-left.
06:44I think your question gets to two points.
06:47One is, it is frustration with its current class that they simply have been in power too long.
06:52And I think there's a certain element of, and they've tried to cling to power.
06:56Evo Morales tried to run for an unconstitutional third term.
06:59He tried to steal the elections, was then ousted, had to flee into exile.
07:03So there's a sense of, it's just politics as usual, whether it's the left or the right.
07:07In the case of the conservatives, I do think there is certain appeal now to a much more fiscally responsible, pro-market-based approach that can help dig the country out, especially when it comes to inflation.
07:19You mentioned earlier about, you know, what is the middle class feeling?
07:22What they're feeling are 30 percent higher prices, which is putting basic foodstuffs and basic things out of their reach.
07:30So what they're thinking now is they need a much more conservative government to try to stabilize the country in terms of its monetary policy and set it back on a track where it's more integrated internationally.
07:39Because Bolivia had become increasingly isolated from the rest of the region, certainly from the United States.
07:44I think the sense now is it needs to inject more market incentives.
07:47We'll see. The election today, by the way, is only the first round.
07:50It looks like it'll head into a second round because none of the candidates is going to get more than 50 percent.
07:56So the second round will be in October, but we'll see.
07:59No foregone conclusions, it sounds like indeed then.
08:02Christopher Sabatini, thank you very much for your time today.
Comments