00:00Well, to get a better insight on U.S.-South Korea relations and what it all means, what's really at stake today,
00:05we can speak now to Professor of Political Science at Temple University, Japan, Dr. James Brown.
00:10Thanks for joining us and your time here at Friends24.
00:13Can I start simply by asking you, what do you think is most important for both sides at this meeting?
00:18What do you think each side might want?
00:21Well, for the Korean side, it's very simple, really.
00:24It's first and foremost to avoid disaster.
00:28That any new leader going to meet Trump will have foremost in their mind the risk of being ambushed with the famous,
00:39infamous meeting between Trump and Zelensky in the White House, followed up by that meeting between Trump and South Africa's Ramaphosa.
00:47That's the real risk.
00:49So if Lee comes out of this with no concrete results, but just having built a good personal relationship with Trump, well, that's a big achievement.
01:01From the U.S. side, the main point of focus will be both security and then also the economic relationship.
01:09And on the economic side of things, Trump will be looking for commitments when it comes to South Korean investment in the United States.
01:16And when it comes to security, I mean, there's a lot of focus from a number of people this morning on that.
01:23I mean, how vital is the U.S. to South Korea's security?
01:28What's at risk?
01:30Yeah, it's absolutely vital.
01:32South Korea has long been in a very insecure position, of course, with North Korea just to the north of it,
01:39but then also China as well.
01:42So those nearly 30,000 U.S. troops within the country are absolutely vital.
01:48The problem, of course, is that Trump feels that South Korea free rides,
01:53that South Korea doesn't make enough of a financial contribution towards the cost of those troops.
01:59And also, I think some within the Trump movement believe that South Korea has too close a relationship with China.
02:05So those are some of the issues that could be points of friction.
02:11Well, wonders, though, you know, South Korea, is it not also useful, if you like, to the United States in that region?
02:17I mean, could you see the United States been interested in withdrawing its troops or changing its security situation there?
02:24Well, this is one of the things which is so frustrating because it seems so abundantly clear
02:30that it's massively in the U.S.'s interest to maintain those troops there.
02:34This is not the case that the U.S. is doing some massive favor to South Korea.
02:40The U.S. really benefits from having that foothold within the region,
02:44helping the United States to truly be a power within this vital economic region.
02:51But that's not how some within the Trump movement see it.
02:54Instead, they just believe that those troops are serving the interests of the South Koreans.
02:59So, yeah, from my point of view, this is mutually beneficial, but that's not how some in Trump's movement see it.
03:07And how do you see then this delegation that was sent to China all the while, while he is on his way to the United States?
03:14That can't be a coincidence.
03:16Is, you know, Lee trying to play his relationship with China off to use that as a negotiating tactic with Trump?
03:22And how might that work out?
03:25Yeah, so what this really usefully highlights is the strategic dilemma that South Korea has,
03:31which is that it has economic dependence on China, but security dependence on the United States.
03:38And those things are very much in tension.
03:40So if, in a sense, he's too successful with Trump and really moves very close to the United States,
03:47if that implies criticism of China, then that damages the economic side of things.
03:52So sending that delegation will be part of a process of reassuring Beijing that while South Korea wants to maintain its relationship with the United States,
04:02it doesn't want that to come at the expense of its economic ties with China.
04:07A really hard, tightrope to walk, it sounds there.
04:11But meanwhile, I remember during Donald Trump's first term in office, you know,
04:14he really wanted to play a big role in the relationships with North Korea as well and see things move there.
04:19Do you think that might come up for discussion?
04:22Yeah, and this is a point of commonality that President Lee's predecessor, President Yoon,
04:31was much more sceptical of engagement with North Korea, very hawkish on that issue.
04:36However, for President Lee and others within his Democratic Party, they're much more in favour of engagement.
04:44And we all remember that Trump, when he was previously in the White House,
04:48launched this extraordinary engagement with North Korea's Kim Jong-un.
04:53So this is something where they might find some common ground.
04:56Professor of Political Science at Temple University in Japan, Dr. James Brown,
05:00thanks very much indeed for your insight on it all.
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