00:00With rising tensions in the Middle East, how far is Iran willing to go in advancing its nuclear program,
00:07specifically its uranium enrichment?
00:09And what could this mean for regional stability and global security?
00:14Professor Shahram Akbar Zarif from the Middle East Council on Global Affairs shares its insights.
00:19The whole uranium enrichment issue really started after the United States withdrew from the nuclear treaty, JCPOA.
00:33That was signed in 2015 under Obama administration.
00:37It put quite stringent international inspection regime to monitor what Iran was doing with this nuclear program
00:46to ensure that it is not diverted towards weaponization.
00:51In 2018, Trump withdrew from that treaty.
00:56And in return, Iran's response was to say,
01:00OK, well, if you are withdrawing from the treaty, we will also withdraw from it gradually.
01:06And from 2018, Iran started enhancing the uranium enrichment levels.
01:13All with the complete knowledge of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
01:19This wasn't secret.
01:21It was quite transparent.
01:23And this was supposed to act as brinksmanship.
01:26So Iran thought by doing this, it would increase pressure on the United States to come back to the negotiation deal.
01:34So, going back to your question of weaponization and the nuclear bomb,
01:40I think history tells us that once a country doesn't have a nuclear bomb, it's a sitting duck.
01:49North Korea, many people in Iran are now arguing, North Korea is not attacked by the United States.
01:56But Libya experienced regime change because Libya, a few years before the Arab Spring and toppling of Muammar Gaddafi,
02:06gave up its nuclear program.
02:09So, now there are big questions being asked in Iran.
02:12Should Iran aim to have a nuclear weapon as the ultimate deterrence for the regime?
02:19According to Shahram, Israeli and U.S. strikes have damaged trust in international law,
02:25stalled nuclear talks and risk triggering a regional arms race.
02:29Iran was talking to the United States at the time over its nuclear program.
02:35So, there was movement towards a new nuclear deal.
02:40So, what has happened is that this has shaken confidence in the power of international rules-based system.
02:54And it has, as I mentioned, it has led many in Iran to seek the nuclear bomb as the ultimate deterrence.
03:03And if Iran chooses to go down this path, this is going to have major ramifications for the region.
03:11Many other neighboring countries would, I can imagine, would feel unsafe to have a nuclear power right next to them.
03:23And they may want to seek their own nuclear bomb.
03:26And that is going to lead to an arms race in the region, which is very dangerous for the whole Middle East.
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