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The United States has entered the fray. Yesterday Washington launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, in support of Israel, marking the first direct US military action in the widening Israel-Iran conflict. This comes ten days after Israel’s unprecedented strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and senior military leadership. The intervention has sparked fears of a full-blown regional war. Is the region spiraling toward another prolonged and destabilising conflict? And what are the global stakes? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Dr Julia Roknifard, Senior Lecturer at Taylor's University’s School of Law and Governance.
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00:00hello and good evening i'm melissa idris welcome to consider this this is the show where we want
00:16you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day the united states has
00:21entered the fray yesterday washington launched airstrikes on iranian nuclear facilities in
00:27support of israel marking the first direct u.s military action in the widening israel-iran
00:34conflict this comes 10 days after israel's unprecedented strikes targeting iran's nuclear
00:40infrastructure and senior military leadership the intervention by the united states has sparked
00:45fears of a full-blown regional war so is the region spiraling towards yet another prolonged
00:53and destabilizing conflict and what are the global stakes so joining me on the show today to help me
01:00explore this further is dr julia rognifard senior lecturer at taylor's university's school of law
01:07and governance dr rognifard julia thank you so much for being on the show with me today
01:11um how are you interpreting the us's direct strikes on iran i'm wondering what you what you're making
01:19of the what you think the strategic objective of washington is uh what are they signaling here
01:25beyond the official rhetoric it would be very good if we could be certain about strategic objectives
01:33and if they were what they declared once are but i'm not sure about the strategic objectives on
01:41two sides of this triangle which are the united states and israel mostly because it's not really
01:49clear what's the end game in there so it leads us to all sorts of uh insinuations and theories
01:59sometimes conspiracy theories about why this strike has been administered in the first place uh donald trump
02:06resorted to deception saying that uh he's going to make the decision this uh weekend and then this
02:14this uh past weekend or then uh changing his uh uh words to uh that it's going to take him about two
02:23weeks within the two weeks we're going to see what's going to happen and then still administering
02:27the strike on the weekend and some indeed said that it's going to happen exactly on the weekend he's going
02:33to decide uh so it's uh clear that we we can't trust uh whatever words are coming there from the white
02:41house and uh to make any kind of conclusions based on that um if we look at a smaller picture at the
02:50regional picture where the us is an external actor supporting israel uh as per the long established
02:59tradition and strategic relationship between the two israel being a kind of an outpost for the united
03:05states in the region then uh we probably uh we we can think that uh it is done in support of israel
03:14who cannot administer this operation alone because administer uh because israel raised hand on iran's
03:23nuclear program and then uh as per what the dominant expert opinion is it's not possible to destroy it
03:32completely without the bunker busting bombs which only the us has and that's what us has done sending
03:40its b2 bombers with roughly i think 14 bombs they are very heavy each can carry only two and uh bombing
03:49three uh nuclear facilities uh nuclear facilities in fordol natanz and esfahan the major one for which
03:55bunker busting bombs were needed was the facility in fordo which is buried deep on the ground some say
04:01it's one kilometer thousand meters um in the mountains so it's uh under granite so it's very hard to
04:10uh to get there to destroy it um but uh then it brings us to the question why israel decided to attack the
04:18iran's nuclear program in the first place because it knew that uh netanyahu knew that israel won't be
04:25able to destroy it on its own so what's the purpose to drag the united states in the middle eastern
04:31conflict in the first place us refused to get engaged in uh what's going on in gaza so uh let's open
04:39another front of iran of course israel has managed to build this uh consideration this threat perception
04:48among the society as well where iran has been perceived as a threat for decades there's been
04:56a large amount of hostility at the level of rhetoric not so much in action until last year when the
05:04administrative strikes against one another but uh israel has had this open front uh in gaza so uh why
05:15decide to strike on iran now there is uh also a consideration that uh if um there is no progress
05:23on diplomacy and if the this mechanism as per the so-called iran nuclear deal the snapback mechanism is
05:32not triggered by one of the european countries which uh are still remaining in this so-called nuclear deal
05:39or gcpoa joint comprehensive plan of action uh then all the sanctions are going to be lifted off from
05:47iran without the possibility of return and that deadline expires in october so that's why we've seen
05:54the speeding up of the diplomacy and uh donald trump also trying to push forward for it but uh yeah that's
06:04what israel probably was trying to prevent but again the threat was not imminent here for israel and
06:11there maybe we should look at the bigger picture because it's not uh what what i think it's not uh about
06:19israel alone for the united states but uh if we take our gaze away a little bit and look at the global
06:28affairs the us currently stands in the position of this withering hegemon who is trying to prove very
06:35hard that they still got it and this is how it looks and it doesn't look very pretty uh because by this
06:43uh trump is engaging us in another unnecessary war which he promised that it's not going to happen
06:51right is this um bringing back um memories of the us entanglement in um west asia most notably the
07:012003 invasion of iraq i'm just wondering how now um will you see the the retaliation the risk are we on
07:10the brink of a much larger regional war um and if anything julia what might pull us back from that edge
07:17yeah these days uh they invoke the uh uh case of iraq uh very much because it was also uh politically
07:27directed uh that invasion and uh they'll have truths about uh what was actually going on in iraq there
07:36was no weapons of mass destruction there was knowledge of the intelligence community there was technical
07:41knowledge but no one wanted to though the warmongers did not want to rely on that and it seems it was
07:47already too far back that we can just disregard that example and do the same again even though
07:56i think logically looking at this if iran were to possess a nuclear weapons or this breakthrough
08:03capability then it would at least at the very least threaten to strike israel with it in response to
08:10what happened or the u.s facilities but i think israel in the first place uh which proves again that iran
08:16does not have it and it didn't reach this breakthrough uh capacity which it would need to build a bomb
08:23within a few days so it's not there it was for the purpose of warmongering um it made us it brought
08:32us very far from diplomacy uh unfortunately and yes uh it looks like there could be escalation into a major
08:40regional war um although the u.s still uh administered this strike against the nuclear facilities somehow
08:48with a warning that iran was ready to that iran took away uh the centrifuges the uh enriched uranium so
08:57technically u.s stroke at uh hit the empty facilities uh and it gave uh trump an opportunity to brag about
09:08obliterating iran's nuclear program which actually can be rebuilt within uh reasonable terms uh and
09:16also it gave him an opportunity it gave trump an opportunity to look victorious this little victorious
09:22war this little brit blitz creek but um uh it doesn't entail any serious consequences for the nuclear
09:30program which again can be rebuilt um at the same time we can see that the u.s is not by by by this uh
09:39kind of uh surgical strike you can say the u.s is not willing to engage into further escalation it's
09:46not willing to get dragged into a broader middle eastern wall so unless there is a blockade of the
09:52strait of hormuz on the part of iran and that would entail probably involvement of the persian gulf
10:00nations uh which would be very concerned for their oil exports uh then uh most likely it will
10:09still be concentrated to the strikes between iran and israel and iran maybe to a lesser degree
10:16degree striking the u.s assets uh in the region which they are still there although many people have
10:23been evacuated right um i just uh so that i uh can we so we can understand the the impact if iran does
10:34start uh does decide to close the strait of humus what um what risk do you think that might pose for
10:42um the for the global economy the the what are the global stakes if that is iran's decision
10:49the us pretend not to care and we've heard marco rubio the foreign minister the foreign secretary
10:55saying that now it's up to china to intervene because china largely depends on uh the oil imports
11:03from the persian gulf and china has been trying very hard to stay away from this and manage its
11:11economic interests somehow away from the conflict um we've already seen the increase of the oil prices
11:19and if the escalation continues then uh yes of course it could have a large impact the u.s can indeed uh
11:29put up a good face uh saying that uh they don't care because uh actually the major they they phased out
11:37most of the middle east exports uh middle east imports uh except for a little bit from saudi arabia
11:43and i think some other countries uh well most of its uh uh oil import comes from the western hemisphere
11:52uh but as for the oil market as a whole uh oil and gas market that would be uh a strong uh impact and
12:02i don't think even the us even though they are spared of this uh price fluctuation because they don't
12:08import oil from there uh that would be a problem and also we are reaching this situation uh in such
12:16a um in such circumstances that another major oil exporter oil and gas exporter which is russia has
12:24been entangled in the war with ukraine so there is no possibility to do like it was done before that
12:32there is some tension with iran so we go and diversify to russia which can boost this production
12:37and then the other way around or maybe the middle eastern countries the persian gulf countries can
12:42boost their production because no matter how much they boost their production if they can't export it
12:47because there is a debacle in uh the strait of humus uh then how they are going to export it they
12:54tried to uh build some work around pipelines saudi arabia did this iran even tried to do this
13:00to to bypass the strait of humus but until now it's only maybe up to three percent of the
13:07overall oil that is being exported from the persian gulf and that's uh one fifth of the global uh oil
13:14exports twenty percent of it so it's still been proven that it's very hard to bypass this important
13:21artery for um the oil exports uh and it's a indeed what they call it a choke point because it's in the
13:30narrowest part it's 40 kilometers only uh which is easier to control and it's not even necessary to
13:38use uh vessels military vessels it uh can be iran can resort to the use of mines uh as well and it's
13:4740 kilometers and there's even a narrow part of 10 kilometers the deepest one through which the the
13:53heaviest tankers can pass through so 10 kilometers it's uh uh according to any estimate it's a pretty
14:01narrow area to control and there can be enough disruption created there and that makes sense
14:07because iran is a smaller nation of course we know it's not a match to the united states uh in military
14:14capability and even probably israel in in terms of their military capabilities so it chooses this
14:21asymmetric ways to respond to to to this attack right julia thank you so much for um sharing some
14:29of your analysis with us we appreciate you particularly during the time of this developing
14:34a new story dr julia rognifad from taylor's taylor's university school of law and governance there we're
14:39going to take a quick break here on consider this we'll be back with more stay tuned
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