00:00Let's bring in Professor Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East analyst and former U.S. State Department advisor.
00:06Welcome back, Laura. Good to have you with us.
00:08From a strategic standpoint, just how significant was this U.S. strike,
00:13and has it ultimately really affected the trajectory of the Iran-Israel conflict?
00:20Yeah, it was a historic escalation last night.
00:24Operation Midnight Hammer was meant to deliver the death blow,
00:28which Israel had been hammering away at, of course, but couldn't go all the way without the big bomb,
00:34and it was never going to be over until the big bombs dropped.
00:37I think the big question today is, did they completely destroy those nuclear facilities,
00:42or were they simply damaged?
00:44And we just have to wait.
00:45I mean, BDA, battle damage assessment, is going to come in the next days or weeks.
00:51And then the second question is, was the uranium moved before the strikes?
00:55Because if it was dispersed, then you've got a whole other game.
00:59And what do you make about the timing?
01:01Do you think that, as Pete Hegseth, the U.S. Defense Secretary, said, this was not about regime change?
01:06They wanted this to be a short, sharp shock.
01:09Do you think that Washington is hoping that that is it now?
01:13Absolutely.
01:14I think what Washington is saying, we are not isolationists, we are unilateralists,
01:18and we'll pursue those goals with laser-like precision.
01:21So, no, beware mission creep.
01:23I don't think they're out on any kind of moral mission of democratization,
01:26which trapped the Bush administration.
01:28I think they're very focused, more focused even than Israel.
01:32Israel says that they have twin missions, the missile program and the nuclear.
01:36But what Washington is saying, if Iran doesn't grow desperate and more dangerous by making a dash for the bomb,
01:44as Vice President J.D. Vance said this morning, the United States is all ears.
01:48I think what's interesting is their actions are military, hard power,
01:52but their language is like somebody who still wants to get back to the negotiating table.
01:56They're ultimately diplomatic dealmakers at heart, and that's President Trump.
02:00And just how much clarity and certainty is there that the Iranians were close to actually producing a nuclear weapon?
02:08They denied that that was the case, but clearly the Israelis felt their word.
02:12Does America, bearing in mind you mentioned the Bush administration and the quagmire of Iraq
02:16and WMDs and the proof of that kind of level of arsenal,
02:21is there full certainty that Iran did actually have this kind of capability?
02:27Such an important question for all Americans, and we're certainly anxious to understand what is the reality there.
02:34I think that the way these intelligence assessments are written is meant to be interpreted by policymakers.
02:40So the intelligence community delivers up a set of facts,
02:43and they can be spun like everything else out there in different ways depending on how you use them.
02:48The only truth that mattered here today, though, was President Trump's,
02:51and he felt that this was, if not a preemptive strike, then certainly a preventative one,
02:56that the threat was imminent and the time to go is now.
03:00And just how credible is the threat from Iran that it will massively retaliate?
03:05What kind of capabilities do they have now?
03:08And how much might they disrupt or even close the Strait of Hormuz?
03:13Well, yeah, the Strait of Hormuz is the energy highway for the world.
03:16It's certainly vital for China and their interests.
03:20I think that they have to retaliate.
03:22I'm not sure they're going to go all the way to the Strait of Hormuz,
03:24but there'll have to be some kind of at least modest retaliation.
03:28I'm not sure they're going to aim it.
03:30Military assets belong to the United States.
03:32Israel will probably take it in the chin.
03:36Netanyahu's slogan and Trump's is peace through strength.
03:39I think the strength that Israelis are going to have to show now is a kind of inner resilience because they will be under attack.
03:44And finally, having been to Iran, I've been to Qom, which is just one hour away from Fordow, that nuclear facility.
03:52I met with the Grand Ayatollah Ardebeli and talked to him about revenge and retaliation according to Islamic law.
03:58Remember, Iran is an Islamic regime, so there's a religious component here, too.
04:03And what he said to me, Laura, he said to me, revenge for us isn't a right.
04:08It's a religious obligation.
04:10So there will be retaliation.
04:12Let's just hope it's limited and that we can get back to the negotiating table where the entire Middle East really wants to be today.
04:18Do you think that the Iranian government is for now fairly stable?
04:23Is it going to is it going to continue or is there a threat that the whole government could collapse?
04:29Well, it's wobbly, but, you know, it was years before the regime and under Assad in Syria fell.
04:35So I don't think we should expect regime collapse in a day or two.
04:39I think one thing that's sort of tragic here is that apparently there was a back channel effort of last ditch negotiations for diplomacy through Erdogan in Turkey, the leader of Turkey, to reach Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader.
04:52But he was hiding in a bunker and couldn't be reached.
04:55So I think part of this is communication.
04:57Whoever is less standing could potentially drink the poison chalice.
05:02That's the language that they used, that the leaders of Iran used to end the Iran-Iraq war, because at the end of the day, what they prioritized was regime stability and that they could live to fight another day.
05:14So if Khamenei chooses that, then, again, this could all be very limited and we get back to negotiations.
05:20And Trump focuses on his number one priority, which is the economy.
05:24Really, really grateful for your insights, Professor.
05:29Thank you so much for joining us again.
05:30That's Professor Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East analyst and a former U.S. State Department advisor.
