- 9 months ago
Trade Disruptions and shrinking growth forecast have been a key focus of the ASEAN Summit this week.
NIAGA SPOTLIGHT examines an influential layer of U.S. policymaking with Bryan DeAngelis, Partner and head of Penta Group’s Washington DC office, discussing their latest ‘Spheres of Hillfluence’ report about American lawmakers use of X—formerly Twitter—as a sophisticated, often polarised tool of political influence.
Understanding how this influence is built and battles are fought in Washington’s digital trenches is critical for anticipating policy shifts and protecting regional business interests in ASEAN.
NIAGA SPOTLIGHT examines an influential layer of U.S. policymaking with Bryan DeAngelis, Partner and head of Penta Group’s Washington DC office, discussing their latest ‘Spheres of Hillfluence’ report about American lawmakers use of X—formerly Twitter—as a sophisticated, often polarised tool of political influence.
Understanding how this influence is built and battles are fought in Washington’s digital trenches is critical for anticipating policy shifts and protecting regional business interests in ASEAN.
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00:00Hello and welcome to Nyaga Spotlight with me Tamina Kausty. Nyaga Spotlight goes through
00:13the week in economic analysis and future affairs. Well this week we're diving into on analysis
00:19hashtag diplomacy. But first of course the ASEAN summit took center stage through this week across
00:24Kuala Lumpur with Malaysia taking cruise control as ASEAN chair in 2025. Now with all things tariffs
00:29trade disruptions and shrinking growth forecasts being in sharp focus Nyaga Spotlight delves into
00:35the timely topic of hashtag diplomacy, US tweets and ASEAN shifts. So we examine a powerful and
00:41surprising layer of American policymaking. One that's not found in official legislation or closed
00:47door committees but rather in retweets, hashtags and quote posts. Yes we're talking about Congress's
00:53digital battleground. Now according to the latest Fears of Influence report from Penta, one of
00:58Washington's top public affairs firms that lawmakers are using X, formerly Twitter, has evolved into a
01:05sophisticated, often polarized tool of political influence. Now this is more than messaging, it's
01:11momentum building, base activation and even agenda setting. Why should this matter to business leaders
01:17and policy makers in Malaysia and across ASEAN? Because what trends on Capitol Hill's feeds today
01:23may become trade policy, tech restrictions or even ESG mandates tomorrow. Now understanding how
01:30influence is built and battles are fought in Washington's digital trenches is critical for
01:34anticipating policy shifts as well as protecting regional business interests. Joining us to unpack
01:40this is someone at the center of it all. Brian DeAngelis, partner and head of Penta Group's Washington DC office.
01:46A former U.S. Senate strategist and leading voice in media and public affairs, Brian helps Fortune 500
01:52companies and global leaders interpret and shape U.S. policy narratives. Brian, welcome to Niagara Spotlight.
01:59Thank you very much for making time. How are you today? I'm doing great. Thank you so much for having me.
02:05Fantastic. So let's dive right in, Brian. Now your report of course reveals that Republicans and Democrats
02:10are using X, formerly Twitter, in increasingly divergent ways. How are these digital strategies
02:18signaling not only partisan divides, but actually pretty fundamental approaches to governing from
02:24Penta's research and work? Yeah, we're seeing both parties use the power of social media to, as you said
02:33in the intro, really galvanize their base. In the Republican side, you're seeing it as a way to
02:40connect their support, to show they're in line with President Trump's message. They know that's an
02:46important platform and channel that he pays attention to. And on the Democratic side, you saw back in our
02:54Q4 report, really Democrats start to move away from X. It was a little bit of a protest of Elon Musk's
03:03influence in the White House and with President Trump. But they came back very strong in Q1 because they
03:09understand that is where news is breaking. That is where their base and Americans are going to get
03:17information. And they know they can tap into the power of social media in the sense of the anger,
03:24the frustration, the viralness of the content to really start to build their support both legislatively
03:32but also back on the campaign trail, whether that's small dollar donations or just starting to build up
03:38the grassroots support. Exactly. Now I think it's really interesting how Penta's research and also
03:44just as a journalist who's also a user of X, you can actually notice the downtrend of Democrats'
03:51presence on Twitter versus Republican policymakers, right? So it's super interesting that this partisan
03:56messaging divergence is coming out quite clearly. Now let's shift into what this might mean and what
04:03lessons perhaps ASEAN executives might take away from all this which is happening online in real time.
04:11Well, it's another proof point of how democratized American politics has become. It's really become a new
04:19almost sport for Americans. They do follow it. They do get excited or frustrated. But either way,
04:28they bring a lot of energy to these debates, they bring a lot of energy to these debates. And it's platforms like
04:33Twitter that produce that bite-sized information that they can get at any point on their phone as opposed to
04:42traditional media where you're sitting through reading the article or listening to the podcast or watching the
04:48the cable news show. So folks know that's where they can go. And that is where corporations from ASEAN nations or
04:57even a lot of what we advise in the United States, you can tap into that same energy, both for your own
05:05intelligence of what's happening, what's moving way before it hits the newspapers, if you will. Or you can start to
05:14put your own message into that conversation and make sure both Americans and then the politicians that are
05:22chasing the same conversations online see your positions, understand where you stand on some of these topics.
05:29Exactly. And of course, the research is also showing that clearly both Republicans as well as Democrats,
05:35they're sticking very much to what their party narratives are. Republicans, for example, really have been
05:42focusing on topics like immigration and crypto when it comes to what they're doing on X. Democrats,
05:48meanwhile, what they're saying on X primarily concerns healthcare, tariffs. And are you seeing that,
05:56given that the platform itself is primarily looking at X itself, Brian, what about the disinformation
06:04and that often, quite often blows out maybe the proportionality of the importance of the topics
06:12being discussed versus also all the disinformation in the mix because of the way in which the algorithm
06:18has changed and so many other shifts governance-wise for X? Yeah, there's two ways to look at the
06:26power or influence of a platform like X. You understand it through the legislative and
06:34what I'll call the DC politics of it, which is the minute-by-minute update on where information is
06:41flowing, who's up, who's down, where a piece of legislation, we just saw this in the last week on
06:49our big domestic policy bill that went through the House of Representatives, that real-time information
06:56of how things are breaking down, a tremendous amount of influence. What a lot of folks need to be
07:02careful of is not to get lost in that when it comes to campaigning and understanding that side.
07:09Yes, it helps a lot with the base, but there are millions of Americans that are working every day,
07:15that are focused on their families and their lives. They're not checking X for the minute-by-minute
07:20update. They're not as plugged into it. So we often refer to it as the Washington bubble, but you can
07:26get sucked into the X bubble as well and really misunderstand what some of the rest of the country
07:33might be feeling on these issues. Absolutely, and I think we echo with that very deeply here across
07:38ASEAN and even in Malaysia where, you know, for example, in Malaysia we might refer to it as perhaps
07:42the Putrajaya bubble or even just generally the X or even the Facebook bubble, right? Okay, so digging
07:48deeper and moving on, Brian. Now, one of the most surprising findings that came out of your Spheres of
07:53Health Fluence report is the emergence of unconventional influencers shaping congressional
08:00discourse online. Tell me more about this. Yeah, we've been watching this trend for, in many ways,
08:08probably the better part of a couple of years, but really acutely over the past election. Americans just
08:15consume information differently. And that's not to put anything against, you know, traditional media
08:23or the power of still, you know, your New York Times, your Financial Times, your Wall Street Journal,
08:29or even some of the cable news programs we see, but people live online. They are living in their
08:35communities. So we're seeing more and more of these influencers, these individuals, whether that be
08:42journalists or podcast hosts or activists really start to build communities around themselves
08:50and be able to drive messaging and policy decisions or the momentum behind those decisions
08:57in a way we really haven't seen before with traditional media. Many ways they're not bound by
09:03the rules of traditional media. So they're pushing opinion. They're pushing a point of view. They don't feel
09:09obligated to be two sided, of course. And that's where we are starting to see them really come to
09:16the top of the list of what members of Congress are following, who they're engaging with. It's those
09:22same influencers. Exactly. And of course, digital influencers can then move on into actually perhaps
09:29even shaping policy discourse when it comes to not just the kind of conversation that is generated,
09:35but perhaps zooming into the ASEAN and Southeast Asian landscape. Brian, do you feel there could be
09:42an opportunity here for Southeast Asian stakeholders then to engage with American policy indirectly,
09:48perhaps through media or even advocacy partnerships from what you're seeing?
09:53I do. I think there's opportunity. I mean, the first is almost an obligation to understand how the American
10:03media environment and information environment is changing. And if you're not staying up to date,
10:10up to speed on where those changes are happening, you can find yourself running a playbook that's been
10:17out of date now for a couple of years. So I think there's first that almost duty and responsibility to
10:24have the right intelligence and then understanding where you can engage. We often call it the white space,
10:31but where is there a spot in this conversation where either as a country, as a partnership,
10:39as a region, or maybe as an individual company, you can insert your voice in a credible, authentic way,
10:46knowing through the intelligence that you will receive some appropriate amount of support
10:53and engagement from those audiences. Absolutely. I think it's something which has shifted in the
10:59landscape, perhaps most distinctly in just the past six months alone. So clearly a lot more attention
11:06needs to be paid. Now, the Penta's report, Brian, also outlines top issues which are dominating American
11:12lawmakers' online messaging. So from your vantage point, which of these issues would it perhaps be maybe
11:19tech regulation, China policy, or energy transition? Which of these might actually end up having the
11:26most downstream impact on ASEAN economies? In some ways I want to choose all of the above, but I do think
11:34everything kind of starts and ends with China policy. I mean, it is an incredible priority and focus
11:43for President Trump. We've seen that he can have, you know, what in my opinion is a very rash approach
11:51to how to negotiate on some of the things that may be a priority, not only for him, but even some in the
11:58Democratic Party. He takes a very, very aggressive negotiating stance, and that's going to have ripple
12:06effects both across the U.S. economy, but also across the Southeast Asian economies. I think that
12:14creates both downside risk in terms of the connections to China and how the president views
12:22some of the partnerships within the region. It also creates, I hope, a lot of opportunity. And you
12:28have seen some talk over the past few weeks of essentially a new trans-Pacific partnership in
12:36some ways. I don't think this administration will call it that, but another attempt to create some
12:43sort of trade partnerships, stronger relationships for the U.S. in the region that helps buffer what
12:50they see as China's power and influence. Absolutely. Now, of course, American lawmakers have been
12:56intensifying their discussions, sectors which are really vital to ASEAN economy, semiconductors,
13:02critical minerals. And I think we await with bated breath once the 90-day tariff pause actually runs out
13:09and what's going to come at the end of that. At the same time, when we look at more key issues,
13:15a little bit longer term, like energy transition and geopolitical dynamics, what are some opportunities
13:22for perhaps American policymakers to also stay ahead of the game? Because the truth of the matter is that
13:27China globally is actually one of the biggest investors when it comes to clean energy, particularly
13:34in the ASEAN and the wider South Asia region. So there is also a chance for America to get ahead of
13:41that regardless of the current administration's perspectives perhaps towards energy transition.
13:47That's right. It's critical, I think, for American policymakers, frankly, across both parties,
13:56to really understand the long-term implications of Trump's approach to not only foreign trade but
14:04really foreign partnerships and foreign policy in general. My sense of this, and you've seen evidence
14:12of it, is we are by default empowering Europe and empowering Asia to start to think about themselves
14:21more as a block that has a lot of influence on the world, to not just rely on their relationships with
14:28the United States. That's going to have some lasting impact for the US in terms of how we engage with the
14:37world, how we think about trade partnerships, defense partnerships, as you said, energy and climate
14:44change partnerships. So there's opportunity there to really think about as Europe or Southeast Asia and
14:52other regions start to stand up more, how can we do it in a way where we're still a partner, we're still
14:59working very closely with them, and avoiding maybe some of the adversarial damage that, you know, really
15:06could come out of the way Trump is approaching foreign policy. Absolutely. Thanks so much for your
15:12perspective so far, Brian. Most insightful. We take a short break now. We'll be right back with Nyaga Spotlight.
15:36Welcome back to Nyaga Spotlight. Still with me, Tamina Kausji. And on today's show, we're discussing
15:42hashtag diplomacy, a look at Penta's Spheres of Hilfluence report in deeper detail and connecting it
15:49back to trade headwinds, tariff talk and everything happening in ASEAN and beyond, particularly in this
15:55crucial week as the ASEAN summit wraps up in Kuala Lumpur. Brian, so getting back into the discussion.
16:02Now, looking at the fact that American politicians are so much more increasingly using social media,
16:06not just to communicate policy, but to also build ideological loyalty and fundraising pipelines,
16:13so does this point towards a blurring between governance and brand building?
16:19Oh, absolutely. I think we've been on this trajectory for probably a number of years here,
16:26and you see it with what I call these viral stars. I mean, in many ways, it probably did start
16:34with President Trump. Maybe you could make an argument for Barack Obama, but you're watching as
16:40candidates from both the right, the Republican Party, but even the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, AOC,
16:51as she's known here in the US, Bernie Sanders, they are tapping into movements first through social
16:59media and first through that constant updates of content and engagement and reaction to those items
17:08that they know are going to go viral online, that they know Americans are getting fired up about,
17:13and they're making a name for themselves. And it's not a separation in their mind of,
17:18when am I campaigning? When am I acting as a member of the United States Congress? It's one in the same.
17:25It's building up these super brands that you've seen around some of these politicians. And that
17:31translates into both a big reputation among the base, but it also makes you kind of public enemy
17:38number one on the opposition side, because again, the viral nature of it. So we're seeing it,
17:45I think we'll see more of it, at least more attempts. And really those candidates that are able to do it
17:52well, will rise to the top of some of the candidate lists.
17:56Clearly. And perhaps at the same time, it may also be prioritizing personal or party branding over
18:01perhaps bipartisan governance. This could be some issues to look at, but I think a lot of the same
18:07is actually happening around not only ASEAN, but also within the Malaysian political sphere. But
18:14perhaps looking at the impact on the predictability for ASEAN stakeholders who are also observing all of
18:20this rollout in real time on American social media. Some thoughts on that, Brian?
18:26Yeah, it's going to be difficult as things change so quickly. But as to my earlier point,
18:34to stay ahead of these movements, to stay ahead of really which member of Congress or members of
18:42Congress are the quote unquote rising stars at the moment, you have to have a good intelligence and
18:50operation kind of looking at channels like X, understanding those movements almost in real time,
18:58I would say, understanding both what is motivating that conversation to a lot of what we look at at
19:05PENTA is not what the members of Congress are saying. This report obviously being the end of that
19:13research for us. But what are the influencers of that members of Congress saying? What are the
19:18influencers of those influencers saying? Where does this conversation start to bubble up? And are there
19:25opportunities to both monitor that and start to see around the corner of issues coming? And as I said
19:33before, for countries or regions to start to put their messaging out there earlier in the process,
19:40before we have that viral moment with the member of Congress. Clearly and at the same time, of course,
19:46identifying what the pressure points might be for certain policy related discussions. Brian, so then
19:52perhaps I'd love to get your insights on markets like Malaysia and across ASEAN though, digital
19:58strategy is still often quite seen as complementary to policy engagement. In contrast, clearly PENTA's
20:04research and reports are suggesting in Washington digital positioning is now rather central to political
20:10leverage. Is this a trend that ASEAN government affairs teams should also begin mirroring?
20:16I would hesitate to say begin mirroring. I do think this is a challenge for a lot of American politicians,
20:27because what they often find is the ability to go viral, to put that digital strategy first, to really
20:36build that base. And then as their careers advance within Congress, they find themselves truly in the
20:43positions of power as if being a chair of a committee, for example, would have made your piece of
20:50legislation. And then to something you said earlier, they have to start acting a little bipartisan to try
20:57to get the votes. They have to start to make deals and negotiate. And explaining why you made a deal and
21:05did something the way you did it to get votes doesn't quite translate into that viral moment on X.
21:12So folks find themselves kind of losing some of that momentum that they see on social media.
21:20There's certainly opportunities to get it back. This is why in many ways you often see the opposition party
21:26having a lot more success in moments like this. Part of what our report showed is that Democratic
21:33voice on tariffs really taking off, because we're not the ones in the position to go negotiate the deals.
21:40We're the ones that can kind of sit there and say, this is wrong. Trump's handling it the wrong way.
21:46Look at the damage it's doing on Americans. And that's the type of content that takes off on platforms like X.
21:52Absolutely. And at the same time, of course, it depends so much on public opinion. For example,
21:57if business owners, small shareholders in particular are the ones to voice out how the
22:02tariffs may be directly impacting them, that perhaps, you know, starts off a chain reaction
22:07of maybe even political influences taking on the mandate. All right. Brian, so now you've also
22:13highlighted that unexpected voices are clearly punching above their weight and influencing congressional
22:18debate. Can you unpack the mechanics of that influence? And perhaps could a well-strategized ASEAN
22:24corporate or even a sovereign voice similarly enter the digital influence sphere to perhaps move towards
22:33shaping more U.S. policy narratives?
22:36Yes. It's a bit of a formula as you start to unpack it in terms of volume of content. As I mentioned,
22:46sort of the aggressiveness of the content, you're not quite as restrained as maybe a member of Congress
22:54is or has traditionally been in terms of what you can say and the opinion you want to push out on it.
23:01It's many ways why the media is falling further down those influence lists, especially online,
23:08because the media traditionally wants to bring that journalistic ethics of let's tell both sides of the
23:15story. Let's get to the facts. That's not the exciting stuff that fuels a platform like X. So we're seeing
23:22these very aggressive, almost full-time posters get out there, tap into those heated conversations,
23:32put themselves out there as the expert on it or the agitator of it, and that attracts more and more
23:39followers, which in turn creates more viral moments and creates more followers and you fall into this
23:46formulaic cycle that puts some names that we wouldn't have seen a year ago, even six months ago at the
23:54top of the list of the people driving these debates. It's a very interesting intersection of cultural
24:01timing, meme fluency, as well as emotional charge, and that's exactly what makes a lot of these
24:07traditionally non-expert voices actually rise to the top of the list. It's absolutely fascinating.
24:14I think what we're moving towards is perhaps an era of evolving algorithmic diplomacy. Would you agree
24:22with that? I would. And on top of that, to your last point, you're losing some of the substance and
24:30policy expertise through that process. The folks who used to have the influence had decades of experience
24:39on an issue. They understood both sides of the issue and even if they had a strongly held belief
24:45on one side, they could figure out parts of the other side where they were willing to negotiate or
24:51find compromise. You don't have to do that online. You don't have to go deep on it. You don't have to
24:58really even understand the substance. You just have to understand what's going to make more people mad or
25:03excited or angry about it to get more followers and more attention. Yes, absolutely. Now, I can see
25:10the opportunity for perhaps if a Southeast Asian, let's say a sovereign wealth fund or a tech conglomerate
25:16would take the opportunity to frame a policy message, perhaps as a values-based shareable narrative.
25:23Things like this may actually have the potential to perhaps go viral in the online atmosphere that
25:29we've actually helped to foster of late. Perhaps one last area before we take our leave, Brian. Now,
25:37let's talk about the quiet power of what's not being said. So based on your data, which key economic or
25:43geopolitical issues impacting ASEAN are perhaps notably absent or underrepresented in the congressional
25:51digital discourse? I actually was quite surprised, even though it's on our list of
25:58of the immigration debate. And in many ways, the immigration debate right now in the US is very
26:07focused on our own borders. But what's getting lost or at least tied up in a couple of other debates
26:15is that immigration, whether it's through colleges and universities or work visas or diplomatic
26:25opportunities. We had the whole Doge moment with USAID, for example, we're losing a moment where that
26:36cultural exchange can happen, where in our sense, you know, we're hopefully pulling some of the best and
26:42brightest from different countries to come to America to understand our culture, to work in our
26:48companies, maybe go to our universities, invent the next great product, and vice versa, the Americans that
26:56go over to Asia or Europe, understand that part of the world, bring that back to their workplaces here or
27:06their government jobs. I think that's going to be a big issue to many of the things we talked about today in terms of
27:12the lasting ripple effects of what's happening right now. And it's not being talked about. Again, it's not
27:20probably really that that ripe content for viral moments on x. But if you really dig under the surface
27:28on three or four of these issues that we are seeing picked up, that's a big factor that we're keeping an eye
27:34eye on as well. Absolutely. I think we take for granted on the tail end of, you know, 80 years of
27:41largely peaceful global relations, what that kind of brain circulation has actually meant for global
27:47economies, including, of course, America's and wider ASEAN. Brian, it's been an absolutely fascinating
27:53discussion. Thank you so very much for your insights. We wish you all the best at PENTA. And thanks again
27:59for joining us on Nyaga Spotlight. Thanks for having me. Well, that's all we have time for today on Nyaga
28:06Spotlight. I'm Tamina Khosgi signing off for now. And we'll see you again next week with more
28:10economic analysis and insights. Here's to a productive week ahead.
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