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00:00J.Y. still here with us on this Wednesday morning on the early line.
00:04So DRS asked you, J.Y., if the right side was favored tonight in Beantown
00:09between the Celtics, Sons, Jason Tatum, and of course the New York Knicks
00:12holding a 3-1 series advantage.
00:15You said, yeah, Boston's still loaded.
00:17They should be a four-and-a-half-point favorite.
00:21But will the New York Knicks defy the odds as they have the entirety
00:25of this playoff run?
00:27By the way, the Knicks, who were atrocious as an underdog in the regular season,
00:326-13 straight up, are now 5-1 outright as a dog in this postseason.
00:39Will it end tonight, J.Y., inside TD Garden?
00:43And I ask you the small caveat.
00:45If it does not, is it over in 6 in the other Garden
00:48inside the world's most famous arena?
00:51I think you're getting at Boston's best effort.
00:53My heart says yes.
00:58My mind says no.
01:00And I'm going to go at my mind and say that.
01:03Yeah, my body.
01:06Telling me, yeah.
01:08Disavow, disavow, disavow, disavow.
01:10Go ahead.
01:11Boston close tonight.
01:13I think Boston finds a way.
01:15I set up an interesting case for the Knicks who have not won a series win at home
01:21since I do believe the 1999 Eastern Conference Finals when they were in eight seed
01:26and they knocked out, I do believe, was Indiana to go to the NBA Finals.
01:30So, to me, I think Boston close.
01:33Two guys to watch out on one on each side.
01:35One, Carl Anthony Towns.
01:37This is .5.
01:37I do believe it's 19-1.
01:38I saw them finally say to Cat, go inside and go inside on Tatum.
01:45So, I'd see what happens tonight.
01:46Does Domazula start Al Horford and go double big with Porzingis?
01:52Or does he go smaller with Pritchard?
01:54If he goes smaller, look for Cat to go inside early.
01:58If it's someone like Al Horford, maybe he goes out the perimeter.
02:02So, look at someone there.
02:03And for the other side, Derek White, I think, becomes intriguing because you have to figure
02:07who's going to take Jalen Brown.
02:11Is it going to be OG or is it going to be Mikkel?
02:13It was Mikkel.
02:14I think it probably is OG.
02:15If you're looking for a guy that's capable of going off in this spot, look at Derek White
02:20who's had some big moments in this series.
02:22Look for Derek White who goes over his points prop tonight.
02:24Well, look at that series spread, too.
02:26You take a look at this, the money line.
02:28A minus 620 price here for the New York Knicks with that 3-1 series lead.
02:31No Tatum there, plus 460 for the Boston Celtics.
02:34Then you take a look there at the spreads.
02:36Minus 1.5, minus 320 price on the Knicks.
02:38And the shortest is a game number five, which, again, would be tonight at a plus 150 price
02:43at this point right now.
02:45Thoughts on the Knicks if they lose this game?
02:48Is there panic?
02:48Is there a struggler?
02:50We got two more games at this point for me, Coach, because when I look at the Knicks,
02:53you got to close them out tonight.
02:55It's got to be Brunson because you don't want to give those Celtics life.
02:58That's it.
02:58You know what I mean?
02:59I mean, it's the sky.
03:00It's got to be...
03:02He's trying to think about R. Kelly and lost his mind.
03:04That's all you got to say.
03:06Lost his mind.
03:06Listen, listen.
03:07If you get to a point where you get a game six at MSG, will the fans be restless and nervous?
03:14Probably, because I'll be one of them.
03:17But I still think at the end of the day, New York will find a way to close it out.
03:20If they don't pull it off tonight, I fully expect them to close it out in game six at home.
03:23All right, let's go to our other game five tonight in the Twin Cities, the Timberwolves and the Warriors.
03:29And you look at the spread, Minnesota, an 11-point favorite with a chance to pull up a gentleman's sweep against Golden State.
03:37We got word yesterday, officially, as we expected.
03:40Steph Curry ruled out for game number five.
03:44J.Y., there is no doubt the Timberwolves are expected to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals for a second consecutive year tonight.
03:54How easy is it going to be for Minnesota?
03:57No, I still think you're going to have the championship pedigree of at least Steve Kerr and Draymond are going to make this work,
04:04at least particularly for the first half.
04:06To me, I would look at it a couple of ways.
04:08If the game's really tight at halftime, maybe jump on Minnesota minus the points in the second half to win the game and cover the spread.
04:14Let that line drop a little bit because I heard Donnie say that number is insanely high for a team that does have championship pedigree.
04:21If you start looking at another way, maybe look at the team total over for Minnesota.
04:27I thought they may have found something, especially in that second half, and their something is in.
04:33But when Ant wants to roll, there's no one on that other team that can stop.
04:38Look for Anthony Edwards to have a big game.
04:39They blow it.
04:40They get him in the second half.
04:41Maybe not cover the spread, but at least maybe wait until halftime, jump on them there, lower number.
04:47They cover that.
04:49Yeah, series price is pretty heavy in this one.
04:51The Timberwolves are minus 4,500 to close the series out and win the Golden State,
04:54whereas at a 16-to-1 price as an underdog here.
04:58You don't want to have that series extended, which I don't know if it will,
05:00but sometimes I take a look, Coach, like the pedigree of the organization,
05:03used to winning championships, very proud.
05:05Jimmy Butler is not going to, I hope not, two for seven from the floor and say,
05:09just get me into the all-season.
05:10There's no sense in this.
05:11And also Steph Curry not coming back tonight.
05:13We don't even think he's probably going to come back for game number six,
05:16and who knows if we even get a game number seven if he does actually play in that.
05:19Talking about the Warriors, their championship pedigree,
05:22is that enough to force another game where they can possibly win as a double-digit underdog?
05:28It's crazy.
05:29Well, listen, at the end of the day, let's be honest,
05:32Jimmy Butler must be markedly better than what he was in the last game.
05:37Jonathan Kaminga has been a bright spot.
05:39Hello, Steve Kerr.
05:40Maybe he should have been doing this with the kid the whole second half of the year
05:43instead of sticking him on the bench for some odd reason no one knows.
05:47But they also got to get something out of Buddy Hill.
05:49They need guys that's going to be able to score.
05:52The problem is, is even if they find guys to score,
05:56there's really great play coming from the other side of Minnesota.
06:00And the guy we really need to really talk about really quickly,
06:03Julius Randle's been damn good in this series.
06:05This is a Julius Randle that struggled mightily in the playoffs.
06:09He has been the best version of himself.
06:11And that's going to make Minnesota dangerous, not just to win tonight,
06:14but also when they get to the Western Conference Finals, they will be in play.
06:19And a large gap right now, J.Y., with OKC up 3-2 against Denver,
06:25minus 260 for the Thunder to win the Western Conference crowd.
06:29Minnesota back right now at plus 270.
06:32You wonder what that series price would be ultimately
06:34if it is the Thunder and the Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals.
06:39All right, earlier this week, a wild week in the NBA got started in a wild way.
06:44NBA draft lottery on Monday evening in somehow, some way.
06:48With a 1.8% chance and a plus 3,900 number,
06:54the Dallas Mavericks are picking first overall in the 2025 NBA draft,
06:59winning the Cooper flag sweepstakes.
07:02J.Y., my favorite part of this was the report we got yesterday
07:06from ESPN's Tim McMahon saying it is confirmed he is hearing from sources
07:11the Mavericks are not going to trade that first overall pick
07:15and intend on selecting Cooper flag like that needed to be a report.
07:20But when Nico Harrison is behind the wheels of steel,
07:23maybe that does need to be said.
07:25What was your overall reaction to the Mavericks winning the Cooper flag sweepstakes
07:30in the NBA draft lottery on Monday?
07:31Well, as I came out of puppy kindergarten with my 13-year-old, 13-week-old dog,
07:38I was like, wait a minute, what?
07:39How in the Nico Harrison did this happen?
07:42How did, how did, how did, how did he give this, like this, this, this trove,
07:46this, this, this once in a maybe generational talent and Cooper flag,
07:51you're damn right he didn't trade that pick.
07:53If they traded Cooper flag, he wouldn't make it out of the city alive.
07:59But what sets this up interesting is what happens after that.
08:04When you look at the second pick with San Antonio,
08:07do they go get Dylan Harper and play Harper with Castle and Fox?
08:12Or do they look at that and package a couple of guys in good, let's say,
08:16I don't know, call Milwaukee?
08:19Do you want Giannis?
08:20Right.
08:21And then obviously the third pick with Philadelphia, what do they do?
08:24It's going to be interesting with Philadelphia with regards of who goes to.
08:28If Ace Bailey goes to, do they move that pick?
08:31Because Harper with Maxie McCain, I don't know if it works,
08:34but if Harper goes to Ace Bailey can slide into that small forward spot
08:38with Philadelphia.
08:39But I do expect, honestly, a lot of movement and trades
08:43because these now teams have additional assets to move.
08:47It's also interesting looking at the draft order,
08:50what it could mean for an established NBA star.
08:53Giannis Antetokounmpo, now he is thinking about leaving Milwaukee.
08:57Also, I guess, had to be a report as well.
09:00Cooper Flag, a minus 100,000 favorite to go first overall.
09:05Dylan Harper, minus 2,400 to go second overall.
09:09Don't overthink it, Pop.
09:11Take Dylan Harper.
09:12And Ace Bailey, the other record star, minus 130 to go third overall.
09:17A doubleheader of Game 5s tonight in the NBA playoffs,
09:22where injuries to stars, a huge story,
09:24and the chance to earn a spot in the conference finals.
09:28Also, the main narrative tonight on this Wednesday in the association.
09:33Of course, DRS, we start at the home of the reigning champs.
09:36Now, without Jason Tatum and in a 3-1 hole, the Boston Celtics try to keep their season afloat
09:43and their title defense on track, if they can even extend their season
09:48and this second-round series against the Knicks for just one more game
09:53and a return trip to Madison Square Garden.
09:55Inside TD Garden, the Celtics, even without Tatum, a 4.5-point home favorite tonight
10:02in Game 5 against New York.
10:05The total stands now at 2-0-8.
10:08DRS, you posed this question to G.Y., so I'll ask you the same.
10:13Is the right side favored in Game 5 tonight between the Seas and the Knicks?
10:17Based on the algorithms, yes.
10:19But what has told you in this series?
10:21Now, understand this.
10:21Boston's a very good team, even without Jason Tatum.
10:24They probably would make the playoffs, obviously, in a regular season without their best player.
10:28So there's something to be said for that.
10:29And they're home, and it's hard to win games on the road, specifically in the playoffs
10:33and also in a closed-out situation, not for you as the Celtics,
10:37but to get closed out by the New York Knicks.
10:39So they will play with a lot of energy, a lot of emotion, and a lot of heart.
10:42But understand this, too.
10:43Hey, let's fight back and win this.
10:45Awesome, Ben!
10:46We're on to the next round.
10:47No, you're not.
10:48You've got to win two more games just to get to the next round at this point.
10:52So I want to see that when we talk about closing time for the Knicks and what that means.
10:56Does that mean we lollygag around there and get down 20 points again and make a comeback?
11:00Or does that mean we step on their throat immediately in this game and not even let that building
11:04even get excited for the possibility of an extended series could absolutely happen?
11:10And also, where does the extra scoring come from?
11:12I just told you.
11:13Like, they still have a quality team for the Boston Celtics.
11:15But your lead dog is not there that gets you bucket after bucket with the ability to drop 40-plus points
11:21in Madison Square Garden.
11:22Is it Jalen Brown's team?
11:24Does he shoot 27 times from the floor tonight?
11:26Does Porzingis wake up from this illness and feel much better for the game tonight?
11:30Is it Derek White, who's wide open for every three-point shot,
11:33who might not be wide open for every three-point shot because Tatum is not covering for basically
11:37a double team and we're a shadow player near him at this point?
11:40Who is stepping up for the Boston Celtics?
11:43That's the key for me tonight.
11:44And I don't know who it is, but you know who I knew was going to step up tonight?
11:47That's the New York Knicks.
11:48That's Jalen Brunson and a healthy starting five that, oh yeah, boy, it's hard to win the Boston.
11:53It is, but correct me if I'm wrong.
11:55How many games has Boston won so far in this series on their home court?
11:58It's zero.
11:59So for me, it's the Knicks and only the New York Knicks tonight, Ben.
12:03Yeah, at TRS, I think it's really hard to argue with that.
12:07Again, devastating injury for Jason Tatum.
12:10Not only going to miss the remainder of this postseason,
12:12but a large, large chunk of 2025-26.
12:16But with Tatum in the fold, Boston has lacked that championship resolve and pedigree.
12:22With Jason Tatum performing out of his mind in Game 4,
12:26the Knicks had vanquished a 14-point third-quarter deficit
12:30to take a three-point lead into the fourth quarter in Game 4 in Madison Square Garden.
12:36And, Donnie, it is so fascinating, right?
12:39You would not expect a team against anybody, but let alone the reigning NBA champs,
12:45to be able to claw themselves out of the holes New York has been able to.
12:51You would expect a better first-half response out of the Knicks,
12:55especially tonight if Jason Tatum is not out there for Boston.
12:59But the Celtics have held at least a nine-point lead at the break in all four games of this series so far.
13:07Boston not just a four-and-a-half-point favorite for the game, DRS.
13:11They remain a two-and-a-half-point favorite for the opening half.
13:15Of course, the natural question is, Jason Tatum is not playing.
13:20Who steps up for the Seas?
13:23Jalen Brown has the highest points prop of any player for the Celtics tonight, 25-and-a-half.
13:30He was awful in Game 4.
13:32Is it Derek White?
13:34His points prop, 18-and-a-half.
13:36If you had to highlight somebody, DRS, for Boston,
13:39who fills that very large void of Tatum, who are you going to?
13:43Yeah, you know what?
13:44I'm probably going to avoid Jalen Brown, even though he's got to shoot a lot.
13:47And if he makes his shots, obviously, he's probably going to hit that total.
13:50Then you take a look at Derek White, which, again, the concept here, Ben,
13:53is Tatum not being there really hurts because you know he has the ability to score 30 to 40 points in a game.
13:59But also understand this.
14:00The whole defensive focus does shift towards Tatum and leaves everybody else with open looks
14:04that aren't going to be there now.
14:06So now you slide it all the way down.
14:08Do I want to take a bite out of Chris Epps Porzingis,
14:10which I think has to have much more of a game tonight?
14:13But then again, you're like, Donnie, he's not 100% healthy.
14:15He's still fighting back from that injury.
14:17Is it a guy like Al Horford that's like, you know what?
14:19Tatum's not there, which means there's four extra three-point shots in my bag tonight
14:23where I might be wide open.
14:25That's a spot that I would look at as well.
14:26So for me, I'm going to take the top two guys out of the equation.
14:30Everybody knows Brown's got to step up tonight.
14:32Everybody knows Derek White.
14:33Hey, he's going to be wide.
14:33He's not going to be wide open from three.
14:35He'll make his fair share, but not going to be as easy as it looks throughout the regular season
14:39and while you had Tatum in the lineup.
14:40It's down the list for me.
14:41Maybe a sneaky hit like Al Horford.
14:44You know what?
14:44Early in the first quarter, knocks down his first two three-point shots.
14:47Then you got it because you only got to get to around 10 points with a guy like Al Horford.
14:51The points have to come from somewhere.
14:52I'm just knocking off the top two guys,
14:54and I'm trying to go lower than that to find manageable statistics.
14:58I think it's a really good point, DRS.
15:0019 plus for Jalen Brown in all four games in this series,
15:03but never more than 25 points.
15:06It's never through this number, so how can we say he's been bad?
15:09He's shooting worse than 38% from the four and even worse than that from three.
15:15Drew Holliday's got an intriguing number of 11 and a half.
15:18He scored in double figures in the first two games in this series,
15:21single digits expending a lot of energy,
15:25trying his hardest to slow down Jalen Brunson,
15:28who was also masterful in game number four.
15:31And the wings have been the advantage for New York,
15:34both Mikael Bridges and OG Ananobi have been great on the defensive side
15:38and really good offensively as well.
15:4179% of the bets backing New York tonight,
15:45and yet Boston remains a four and a half point favorite.
15:49Quickly, DRS, game five in Minneapolis.
15:52No Steph Curry ruled out for this game for the Warriors.
15:55The Timberwolves, a comfortable 11-point favorite
15:58to earn this win and a second consecutive berth
16:01in the Western Conference Finals.
16:03Just how comfortable do you think tonight's game five can be for Minnesota?
16:08It could be comfortable, but I expected to stay within that number.
16:11Could it be close to double digits?
16:12Maybe so.
16:13But if also, if we're looking at points props here,
16:15Jimmy Butler, 26 and a half, I'm taking him away.
16:18Who's the X factor in this game?
16:19If you want to keep close and maybe win.
16:21Buddy Hill's got to go off.
16:22And go off, I mean, by making five plus three-point shots.
16:25His points prop is 13 and a half tonight.
16:27If Buddy Hill doesn't get 13 and a half or more points tonight,
16:30they're not winning or covering this game.
16:32That's my angle.
16:34Enjoy the Moneyline DRS.
16:35More on TEL next.