00:00I want to talk about what specifically you're looking out for next, because end of next week, we're going to see that temporary ceasefire that Russia has called. Historically, as you said, Putin doesn't really honor ceasefires. So I'm curious, after that, what specifically do you think comes out of this?
00:17Well, it remains to be seen overall how the talks on US-Russia normalization also progress. I'm very interested to watch that unfold in the background, because I think that is going to be important, because the US, I do believe over the next few weeks, will continue to be critical for the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire negotiations to continue and to stay on track.
00:45So in that respect, what's also happening behind closed doors between Vladimir Putin's people, so to speak, and President Trump's people is going to be very, very important. And that will in many ways dictate whether or not the Trump administration will be fighting for the interests of the Ukrainians or the Russians.
01:04Because I don't believe that it is possible for the United States, with all the goodwill in the world under any administration, to be able to represent the interests of the two sides equally. That's just not possible.
01:20Any dealmaker, I think, would tell us that the US would have to lean in one direction a little bit or the other. Being purely, purely objective is going to be very hard, because let's face it, we are still in the middle of a war. Ukraine and Russia are still very much at war.
01:43And it's going to be hard for anyone to say that we are being purely objective here. So that's one. So watching the US-Russia normalization process will be interesting over the coming weeks.
01:57Secondly, I do agree with you entirely, Brittany, that I am very skeptical that Russia will honor its own unilateral commitment to stop all fighting over the May Victory Day observance and celebrations.
02:18That is something that I am not necessarily counting on. And even if they were to stop, there will always be something that triggers Vladimir Putin, where either he feels that he's been provoked by Ukraine, or he felt that he had no other choice but to fire back.
02:38And I think that's how Russia will formulate this is we have to strike back because we were provoked. So in that respect, this very brief halt in fighting is not something that I am necessarily going to use as a thermometer for myself in terms of what this means for tangible, durable ceasefire talks going forward.
03:01It's going to be interesting and perhaps the most interesting element here is going to be again, the United States. At what point will Washington actually feel like it has had it, so to speak, and it no longer is interested in continuing to be actively engaged in the process?
03:23I don't think that Washington will ever completely walk away from this. It's just too big a deal. But even so, at what point would President Trump signal to his team that he's done, at least for the time being?
03:36Because if that happens, then we are going to have to talk again. And it's always a pleasure for me to talk with you. But we really have to then reassess what does this mean? Because everything that we've discussed today about whether Europe would get more actively engaged in these processes, and what that means for European capitals, that is going to be worth the thought, because then that whole process will get accelerated at a crazy level.
04:06speed speed, because suddenly the pressure will be on times 100. So let's see what happens. But these are some of the signposts for myself and for us at Eurasia Group that we're watching very closely. And of course, we have to bear in mind that aside from diplomacy and negotiations and a lot of politicking that is going on, there's actual battlefield developments that are very, very important to bear in mind.
04:34And we need to see what's happening on that front. There is nothing that is going to be changing the situation overall, over the coming days and weeks. It's it's unlikely that anything will massively change. But there's some progress Russia has made. And it remains to be seen how much more they'll be able to do that is worth watching. Because at the end of the day, this is a hot war. This is not a hybrid war only this is a hot war.
05:04against the backdrop of diplomacy and politics. What is actually happening on the battlefield.
05:11OK?
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