Expert Says 'Durable Ceasefire' Between Russia And Ukraine Is 'Highly Improbable In The Near Term'

Forbes Breaking News

On "Forbes Newsroom" Tinatin Japaridze, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, spoke about ongoing efforts to secure a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, and the US role in any potential deal.

Transcript

00:00I want to talk about where we are exactly when it comes to the war between Russia and Ukraine,

00:05because this week we passed President Trump's 100 day marker in his second term, and he promised on

00:12the campaign trail he would end this war in a day. That hasn't happened yet, but Secretary of State

00:17Marco Rubio called this a very critical week in the talks between the two countries. And he said

00:23this over the weekend on Meet the Press, quote, throughout this process, it's about determining

00:28do both sides really want peace? And how close are they or how far apart they are after 90 days of

00:33effort here, over 90 days of effort? He also added this, quote, there are reasons to be optimistic,

00:39and there are also reasons to be concerned. It's complicated. If this was an easy war to end,

00:44it would have been ended by someone else a long time ago. So talk to us first, if you could

00:49characterize exactly where we are in this, what he called very critical week in negotiations between

00:55Russia and Ukraine. Absolutely, Brittany. And I do actually agree with the Secretary that

01:01it's a complicated situation. There has been progress, especially over the last few days,

01:08we have seen that there's movement again, and it sort of tends to ebb and flow a little bit.

01:13There are stops and starts, and sometimes they're false, and other times they're not. But essentially,

01:19at the moment, I think in terms of the US role in particular in the ceasefire negotiations,

01:24and where the two sides are in peace talks, and the two sides being Russia and Ukraine, but also

01:31Ukraine and the United States, the US has played an active but challenging role in ceasefire negotiations

01:39over the last few weeks in particular. So we've seen some positive signals from a recent meeting between

01:46the US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Vladimir Putin. But even so, there have been no major concessions

01:53as such from Russia as a result, that might actually shift anything in a tangible way. So European

02:00governments, on the other hand, continue to support Ukraine. And with this sort of backing,

02:06Kiev insists on an unconditional truce, and has already rejected key aspects of the latest US ceasefire

02:12proposal. So Washington is doing its part in many ways to apply pressure on Moscow to a degree.

02:19It has also been applying pressure on Kiev too. But in terms of Russia, there's threat of sanctions.

02:25And even so, a durable ceasefire is highly improbable in the near term.

02:30And I want to talk

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